CONFIRMED Jefferson Cáceres and Christian Nwachukwu

[Scarebus]

Comes on with 5 minutes to go against Blackburn.

Scores winner.

Immortalised.

Never seen again.

You do the Reda Khadra and you turn around

 

[Bladeloyal]

My take is when a player is in the building it's not difficult to asses wether they are good enough it becomes plainly obvious out on the grass .

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

How does a player "prove themselves good enough"? The obvious answer is extrapolating from performances in training and age-grade football but ultimately that doesn't provide the empirical data on how they would perform in the first team environment.

We know how a player proves themselves good enough in the "discredited" older, traditional model. As you say/allude - rip it up in training, boss U21 game after U21 game, get a shot in the First Team through injury/suspension and make people sit up (a la Seriki).

Do new recruitment model players have to do that?
Or, is there an element of - the data can't lie, throw away convention, he must be given a shirt?

 

[Uganda Blade]

We know how a player proves themselves good enough in the "discredited" older, traditional model. As you say/allude - rip it up in training, boss U21 game after U21 game, get a shot in the First Team through injury/suspension and make people sit up (a la Seriki).

Do new recruitment model players have to do that?
Or, is there an element of - the data can't lie, throw away convention, he must be given a shirt?

How does it work at the clubs (eg Brighton and Brentford) using this sort of approach? As per, genuine question.

 

[Ron_Justice]

Presumably, and ideally for me, any new model will be a hybrid system? Use the tried and tested (and proven to be successful) Academy route for homegrown talent mixed with a data driven approach to unearth hidden gems from across the world. However, I'd hope that anyone coming in from outside the Academy* has to prove themselves worthy by actually showing it within the Academy/U21's.

*Surely, we're not in the market for finding senior players via the new Data Route (prevailing wisdom suggests they're all getting hoovered up by the established top tier clubs) but players who would still be of Academy age, so would in turn strengthen the Academy further and only get a chance at the first team when they're 'good enough' along side their homegrown team mates.

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

How does it work at the clubs (eg Brighton and Brentford) using this sort of approach? As per, genuine question.

To add to that - do other clubs, your Brightons & Brentfords - recruit "first team ready" players through the new recruitment model. Or players with potential for the first team? We are clearly hoping for the latter.

 

[loveWalrusDaveTheBlade]

I'm hoping to ask a "genuine question" to posters who support this new recruitment model thingy.

Is the plan to recruit players AND put them into the First Team before they are quite ready? Potentially sacrificing points & league position for the prize of having a new recruitment model better player in the longer term? Does the model require them to "learn the ropes" in the First Team? At the expense of players who are - on the day - a better choice. Do we need to create a Pathway to the First Team for any new recruitment model players.

I'm aware these might seem rather naive questions. And I'm aware there's an obvious answer - only play them when they've proved themselves good enough.

But, my questions are genuine. I get the idea of spotting them 'by data". I've got two degrees in Applied Statistics. But I'm not sure how it's supposed to work from there.

I'm a supporter of the approach, in the sense that I think there is an important place for data-driven identification of talent (especially from overseas leagues, which are often more difficult to scout physically), alongside the more conventional routes of talent identification traditionally employed by most clubs.
I think that the majority of players acquired through these routes will be young development talents. Having acquired them, I think that their route into the first team is via the same processes that currently apply to our in-house academy products, ie 'youth' level football, loans to other league clubs, blooding into the first team squad and eventually the first team (when and only when they are good enough). In recent seasons, we have many examples of exciting young academy talents that have established themselves at first team level through these approaches, so I see no reason why it shouldn't work for candidates identified through data-driven approaches.
I think the 'new' part of this approach is simply the data- driven targeting of raw talent at a scale and breadth unachievable through conventional means. After that, treat them like any other development candidate.

The social media noise around whether or not the first examples of this approach at our club should be featuring in the first team squad are more to do, in my opinion, with a desire to generate clamour around any potential divergence of thinking between Wilder and the ownership, rather than any common sense thinking about how to sustainably improve first team performance in the medium term.

There's certainly no need to be sacrificing first team quality, points or league position in service of talents identified by data driven approaches. We don't do that for any of our academy products. It's an intelligent approach that's required, based on what we know already works for us. It's not a religious movement or an imposed philosophy.

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

Surely any new model will be a hybrid system. Use the tried and tested (and proven to be successful) Academy route for homegrown talent mixed with a data driven approach to unearth hidden gems from across the world. However, I'd hope that anyone coming in from outside the Academy* has to prove themselves worthy by actually showing it within the Academy/U21's.

*Surely, we're not in the market for finding senior players via the new Data Route but players who would still be of Academy age, so would in turn strengthen the Academy further and only get a chance at the first team when they're 'good enough' along side their homegrown team mates.

Understood. But Cáceres is too old for the U21s. He'll have to play as an overage player.

 

[Ron_Justice]

Understood. But Cáceres is too old for the U21s. He'll have to play as an overage player.

Yeah, I guess so. I'm unsure about the overage players but believe there's a limit to the number that can be played in any one game? If we make a habit of getting these 'older' players, then we'll need to look at that because using the U21's as a rehab step for established First Team Squad players would have to take precedence.

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

It has been unusual for us to pay a fee to recruit a player who slots into the Academy. Not unheard of but unusual. In the days when Travis Binnion would chat to supporters in confidence, he was sometimes frustrated with that.

So there are some "expectation'" differences between Jefferson Cáceres and (say) Aaron Reid. Because a fee has been paid.

 

[Ron_Justice]

.....................................

So there are some "expectation'" differences between Jefferson Cáceres and (say) Aaron Reid. Because a fee has been paid.

Absolutely, lets just hope that that expectation doesn't result in Owner applied pressure to play 'their' players regardless of apparent quality. It would be a dangerous precedent.

Another tick in the Director of Football column for me - someone responsible for ensuring contracts and expectations are managed and selection can be 100% merit based, and at the Managers discretion.

 

[loveWalrusDaveTheBlade]

It has been unusual for us to pay a fee to recruit a player who slots into the Academy. Not unheard of but unusual. In the days when Travis Binnion would chat to supporters in confidence, he was sometimes frustrated with that.

So there are some "expectation'" differences between Jefferson Cáceres and (say) Aaron Reid. Because a fee has been paid.

This is very true, but if we aspire to do things differently and better in the future, then we need to accept change in order to achieve this.
Travis Binnion was very probably right!

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

Thanks. Some helpful insights to unblock my ignorance.

 

[Badger Blade]

To add to that - do other clubs, your Brightons & Brentfords - recruit "first team ready" players through the new recruitment model. Or players with potential for the first team? We are clearly hoping for the latter.

I think it happens when you look at who they've signed and where they've come from, they're just more successful at signing first team ready players from Scandinavia or the Netherlands than we are, perhaps because its more ingrained in how they work and they're clear on who and what they're looking for.

Other than Anel from Malmo (by way of Forest), Berge and Souza, we've not found anyone decent from abroad but we're obviously attempting to do this in fits and starts with varying degrees of success (see Slimane, Traore, Zivkovic, Retsos, Verrips, Grbic, Larouci, Coulibaly for a selection of failures). We signed Uremovic a few seasons ago from Rubin Kazan who wasn't the most horrific footballer I've ever seen play for us. I don't believe for a minute that Heckingbottom was on a plane to Russia to go and watch him - he'd have likely been found initially through some Opta software with a filter on.

Teams like Brentford and Thomas Frank's connections might have someone working full time trawling the youth pitches of Denmark but they'll all use the various data systems to get towards finding what they're looking for or even some sort of alert around players who, for arguments sake, win over 50% of aerial duels, play x% of passes forward successfully or whatever it might be.

I had a play with the football scouting software about 15 years ago when I was on placement and even then it was mind blowing so with updated systems, AI, new measures etc, it'll be able to get to the nth degree rather than sending Paul Mitchell to Peterborough on a wet Tuesday night.

 

[Balham]

Does the model require us to treat them differently, give them some sort of preferential treatment, to an Academy player of the same age?
Again. I'm genuine. I don't know how it's supposed to work.

I would hope not...but in this case we don't have an academy player of the same age. Cáceres is akin to a Slimane but with, hopefully, more intelligence applied to the identification and recruitment. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating....although it should be pointed out that Slimane was sold at a profit.

We know how a player proves themselves good enough in the "discredited" older, traditional model. As you say/allude - rip it up in training, boss U21 game after U21 game, get a shot in the First Team through injury/suspension and make people sit up (a la Seriki).

Do new recruitment model players have to do that?
Or, is there an element of - the data can't lie, throw away convention, he must be given a shirt?

At the moment it would appear that the owners are happy to let Wilder determine all things first team (cf Rob Holding not being able to secure a starting spot), possibly because results are good. One wonders whether tensions will arise should results dip.

To add to that - do other clubs, your Brightons & Brentfords - recruit "first team ready" players through the new recruitment model. Or players with potential for the first team? We are clearly hoping for the latter.

Both those sides seem to be able to identify pathway players and introduce them gradually or have them ready to replace the incumbent when a suitable offer is received. Brighton brought in Caceido, gradually introduced him into the first team. They've done the same with Baleba. It's also arguable that their biggest transfer failings were those who they spent relatively large sums on in the belief that they could be thrown straight into the first team (Izquierda, Jahanbakhsh).

It has been unusual for us to pay a fee to recruit a player who slots into the Academy. Not unheard of but unusual. In the days when Travis Binnion would chat to supporters in confidence, he was sometimes frustrated with that.

So there are some "expectation'" differences between Jefferson Cáceres and (say) Aaron Reid. Because a fee has been paid.

Among the most recent academy players we paid a fee for are Peck and Joe Starbuck. One is now a first team player in the Championship, the other is playing for a different SUFC in the National League North.

I'd not be at all surprised if we see some more paid-for additions as a result of the increased use of data in recruitment. Some will be successes, some won't.

 

[Snake]

I have no degrees in owt, no real football knowledge (as in, nothing to compare to the knowledge of working football professionals) and, obviously, no personal knowledge of the 2 new players. However, to me it is very simple........

All the data driven / AI new approach has done is identify 2 players that the powers that be see as 'value for money punts'. Nothing has fundamentally changed here - in the past scouting reports would have been compiled, networks and trusted contacts approached for opinions etc and 'value for money punts' made on that basis.

So, the boys are brought in, integrated into whatever level our professional coaches/fitness gurus/man managers etc feel they are at then transition into the first team team progressed from there - the same as every other player in the system. Whether that is out on loan, training with first team, playing at their respective age levels etc I leave in the capable hands of our professional football people. We 'punters' might have an opinion, but at the end of the day, that's all it is, and means nowt.

 

[Champagneblade]

To add to that - do other clubs, your Brightons & Brentfords - recruit "first team ready" players through the new recruitment model. Or players with potential for the first team? We are clearly hoping for the latter.

Brighton have sent a few to Belgium.

That route wasn’t quite the finishing school we thought it might be!

I see however Norrington-Davies is out for the season. As one less overage player in the mix it would seem to make Cáceres’ spot pretty secure. He can acclimatise and then at 23 next season we must hope he has a decent learning curve to be considered a first team squad player.

You’d expect Nwachukwu to follow a similar path but at 19 he has more time on his side. This also raises a question to me; if you can have overage players in the U21s, at 19, could he get some minutes in for the U18s as an overage player, to get him up to speed?

 

[YES Blade]

I have no degrees in owt, no real football knowledge (as in, nothing to compare to the knowledge of working football professionals) and, obviously, no personal knowledge of the 2 new players. However, to me it is very simple........

All the data driven / AI new approach has done is identify 2 players that the powers that be see as 'value for money punts'. Nothing has fundamentally changed here - in the past scouting reports would have been compiled, networks and trusted contacts approached for opinions etc and 'value for money punts' made on that basis.

So, the boys are brought in, integrated into whatever level our professional coaches/fitness gurus/man managers etc feel they are at then transition into the first team team progressed from there - the same as every other player in the system. Whether that is out on loan, training with first team, playing at their respective age levels etc I leave in the capable hands of our professional football people. We 'punters' might have an opinion, but at the end of the day, that's all it is, and means nowt.

Agree with this.

It doesn’t matter whether the player is a Peruvian identified via AI or a striker playing in the Championship signed for £10m. The manager and coaching staff should be judging them all equally and picking the best players each match.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

His live stream debut on here...

 

[BalticBlade]

Surely it's only a matter or time before this lad is UNLEASHED IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP

 

[chesblade]

Should have had a penalty, shame ref and lino were blind

 

[HVR]

There's also another way to look at these two signings. Let's say they don't work out. OK fair enough. But what if this gives us a reputation as a pretty well set up Top of the Championship / Lower Premier League team ready to give players a chance? So these are the first 2 in that conveyor belt. The message is "we are open to applications from players around the globe to progress (and enrich themselves) in a well established team at the top end of the English League and then perhaps get the chance to move on to a bigger club." Yes, it starts out as an AI database search with us reaching out, but the next stage will be a flood of agents touting their players to us. Which to me is a good thing. As an agent, you have a talented player, who will you call? Sheffield United - who have a reputation for giving these players a chance, or Wednesday who don't.

 

[Dimyan93]

There's also another way to look at these two signings. Let's say they don't work out. OK fair enough. But what if this gives us a reputation as a pretty well set up Top of the Championship / Lower Premier League team ready to give players a chance? So these are the first 2 in that conveyor belt. The message is "we are open to applications from players around the globe to progress (and enrich themselves) in a well established team at the top end of the English League and then perhaps get the chance to move on to a bigger club." Yes, it starts out as an AI database search with us reaching out, but the next stage will be a flood of agents touting their players to us. Which to me is a good thing. As an agent, you have a talented player, who will you call? Sheffield United - who have a reputation for giving these players a chance, or Wednesday who don't.

We've been doing it for years, as have other clubs

Connleey and McAlister plus Tonne and Lokberg in 10/11

'AI' (whatever that means in this case, I think it's just much of the same system clubs have been using for years but smartened up) is just replacing the scouting which we had then (which was mostly statistics through a computer)

When you're buying potentially players, you want them to settle quickly, so you always eye an extra. It's the same principal McCabes United World ran on

It's nothing new, they've just added the AI tag on it, to sell/market whatever database/system they used this particular time around

 

[Tony_Kaufman]

To add to that - do other clubs, your Brightons & Brentfords - recruit "first team ready" players through the new recruitment model. Or players with potential for the first team? We are clearly hoping for the latter.

As much as I despise the cheating t**ts, Forest also have a succesful data driven recruitment push. Brentford and Brighton are great examples of how to find Premier quality players from unlikely sources for modest fees and wages. It's different but there's no reason it can't work for us too. Recruitment has been our downfall in previous Premier league campaigns as we've signed very few players who were Premier League standard, and very few who other Premier League teams showed interest in, or anyone who's values rose enough that selling them could help part fund a summer.

One of my biggest fears if we go up next season is the summer recruitment. Not for how slow we always are and the piss poor excuses for not getting anyone in and ready for the opening match, but more our small club mentality and fear of paying out big bucks in wages for quality. Why spend £25mil on one quality player on £60k per week who will improve the first team, when you can buy three mediocre players for £8mil each on £20k per week in the hope that one might be alright. But hey, we strengthened the squad though.

 

[Frank the tank]

As much as I despise the cheating t**ts, Forest also have a succesful data driven recruitment push. Brentford and Brighton are great examples of how to find Premier quality players from unlikely sources for modest fees and wages. It's different but there's no reason it can't work for us too. Recruitment has been our downfall in previous Premier league campaigns as we've signed very few players who were Premier League standard, and very few who other Premier League teams showed interest in, or anyone who's values rose enough that selling them could help part fund a summer.

One of my biggest fears if we go up next season is the summer recruitment. Not for how slow we always are and the piss poor excuses for not getting anyone in and ready for the opening match, but more our small club mentality and fear of paying out big bucks in wages for quality. Why spend £25mil on one quality player on £60k per week who will improve the first team, when you can buy three mediocre players for £8mil each on £20k per week in the hope that one might be alright. But hey, we strengthened the squad though.

You are by far and away the most ignorant poster on here with regards to the football club you are discussing

Each post more ignorant than the last in some kind of adolescent cry for attention

 

[Tony_Kaufman]

You are by far and away the most ignorant poster on here with regards to the football club you are discussing

Each post more ignorant than the last in some kind of adolescent cry for attention

It's not attention seeking at all. We all have our own opinions. If you disagree, say why and we'll have a discussion. No need to make it personal. Chill out.

 

[Bladey_blade]

As much as I despise the cheating t**ts, Forest also have a succesful data driven recruitment push. Brentford and Brighton are great examples of how to find Premier quality players from unlikely sources for modest fees and wages. It's different but there's no reason it can't work for us too. Recruitment has been our downfall in previous Premier league campaigns as we've signed very few players who were Premier League standard, and very few who other Premier League teams showed interest in, or anyone who's values rose enough that selling them could help part fund a summer.

One of my biggest fears if we go up next season is the summer recruitment. Not for how slow we always are and the piss poor excuses for not getting anyone in and ready for the opening match, but more our small club mentality and fear of paying out big bucks in wages for quality. Why spend £25mil on one quality player on £60k per week who will improve the first team, when you can buy three mediocre players for £8mil each on £20k per week in the hope that one might be alright. But hey, we strengthened the squad though.

January was a totally different story to your final paragraph however, these new owners did not fuck about

 

[Tony_Kaufman]

January was a totally different story to your final paragraph however, these new owners did not fuck about

I'm not disputing about January, I was more talking to our summer recruitment in our previous two promotions. This January far exceeded my expectations and hopefully sent a loud and clear message to the fans from our new owners. But I'll still be apprehensive this summer.

 

[Nessman930]

If we go up, the owners will likely have some money to spend. They won't spend the £125 million that Forest spent to stay up their first year back in the Prem, but hopefully at least 50% more than Prince Abdullah spent during his tenure.

We need a first team quality center back, at least one Prem quality midfielder, a proper RB, and a proven striker to even have anything resembling a fighting chance.

Cart before the horse though.

 

[LBA_Blade]

If we go up, the owners will likely have some money to spend. They won't spend the £125 million that Forest spent to stay up their first year back in the Prem, but hopefully at least 50% more than Prince Abdullah spent during his tenure.

We need a first team quality center back, at least one Prem quality midfielder, a proper RB, and a proven striker to even have anything resembling a fighting chance.

Cart before the horse though.

Agreed although currently 7 players on loan here at the moment (if you include Souttar). We have the option to purchase on BBD which more than likely will be activated simply because he knows the manager and the club and has been settled. He has scored in the Premier League before too although probably not the proven striker option.

Without signing on any of the current on loan players, I think we are on a squad of 18 with both Brewster and Robinson contracts expiring in the summer, leaving us with 16. Although that technically doesn't include Marsh and it's whether he is good enough to make that step up in the summer. I agree we need the "spine" of probably 4 quality players but we also need squad depth, of at least another 4 maybe 5. Jury is out on whether we extend Brewster and Robinson, although by doing so, it does bring down your cash spend slightly. We are in need of at 4 quality plays plus at least 3 squad players in the summer. Squad player wise could easily be a £30mill bill and "quality players" £100mill especially a putting a proven striker. Unless we rely heavily on the loan market again we are looking at least £100million spend to have that fighting chance.