Your scientific approach is impeccable. A Nobel prize surely awaits...although here's an anecdote in return:
I've played Subbuteo in a league with mates since 1988. There's always been a lot of Blades in the league and we even name our players. Sometimes when a real life player came along there'd be more than one of us wanting the same player. We even had transfers with Alan Kelly and Paul Beesley both commanding high fees. Dane Whitehouse was worth 17 pints (when transfered in 2015!!)
Nobody ever went for Jagielka, although Badger and Brown, Tonge, Kozluk, even Mike Lake, Nathan Blake, and Brian Gayle were all signed up. Morgan, Geary, Asaba, Deane and Agana. Littlejohn and Forte. Davy Gysbrechts, Nudger Needham, Paddy Kenny, David White, Joe Shaw, Bobby Ford, Aiden McGeady, William Foulkes, Peschisolido, Sabella, Cockerill, Shipperley, Bradshaw, Kevin Arnott, Lee Baxter!, Simon Tracey, Balboa, Jimmy 'Headles' Hagan, Peter Beagrie and John Brayford's Beard, Billy Sharp and Billy Whitehouse, Bob Booker and Paul Stancliffe. the list goes on and on...
...and yet not one of us ever signed Phil Jagielka! When Derry, Devlin and deVogt all got a shot, why no Jagielka? Was it because we all thought he was 'someone who fucked off as soon as the going got tough'? Or was it because we all had such respect for the guy that none of us could quite take the risk of signing him up and his 00-scale representation wouldn't match up to the real life player.
I'll posit that my anecdote is worth as much as your theory of message board user names.