If past figures are anything to go by then we need.......

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

The_Green_Man

The_Green_Man

Slave to the NHS.
Joined
Aug 8, 2015
Messages
1,030
Reaction score
2,118
Location
Sheffield
Approximately 75pts or there about to secure a place in the top 6 come the end of the season, of course we don't want a top 6 spot because we have never achieved anything from the dreaded play-offs. But this still has to be our aim bare minimum and that leaves us with 47pts to achieve from a possible remaining 93pts available or 16 wins from the remaining 31 fixtures.

For a top 2 finish we are looking at 90pts or more if we are being more realistic, this leaves us seeking another 62pts from a possible 93pts up for grabs or again about 20-21 wins from a remaining 31 fixtures.

These figures are based on the below point totals of previous seasons.................

2015/2016
1st Wigan (87pts)
2nd Burton (85pts)
6th Barnsley (74pts)

2014/2015
1st Bristol City (99pts)
2nd MK Dons (91pts)
6th Chesterfield (69pts)

2013/2014
1st Wolves (103pts)
2nd Brentford (94pts)
6th Peterborough (74pts)

2012/2013
1st Doncaster (84pts)
2nd Bournemouth (83pts)
6th Swindon (74pts)

2011/2012
1st Charlton (101pts)
2nd Pigs (93pts)
6th Stevenage (73pts)

10/11 = 95,92,71, 09/10 = 95,86,80, 08/09 = 96,89,76, 07/08 = 92,82,76, 06/07 =91,85,75

........................................................................................................................................................................

Home form is key....

Without stating the obvious.......We have 16 league games remaining at home by my reckoning. Should we make BDTBL an absolute fortress and wipe the floor with all of our opposition, then this would probably be enough to secure that top 6 minimum finish.

This would then leave us hunting 5 wins from 15 fixtures on the road which is more than achievable.
............................................................................................................................................................................

Our last 10 games...

In our last 10 league games we have bagged 24pts from a possible 30pts which is fantastic form, this consists of 7 wins and 3 draws....

Obviously form like this, dropping the odd few points here and there would be more than enough to see us over the line. We can technically lose 1 in 3 from now on in as long as we win the other two and we are still in very good shape for a top two finish....

............................................................................................................................................................................

And finally in comparison to our previous seasons in this league...

This season with 15 games played we sit on 28 points. We had a patchy start but our recent form has well and truly turned our season around for us...

At the 15 game stage in our previous league one seasons, we have been on.......

15/16 = 24pts
14/15 = 26pts
13/14 = 12pts
12/13 = 31pts
11/12 = 28pts

.............................................................................................................................................................................

So in conclusion....

We have finally hit some really decent form with an 11 game unbeaten run that is on par with our fantastic first season under Danny Wilson however due to a terrible start to the campaign we are only a win or so better than our previous 2 campaigns.

We need to carry on this form especially at home because getting that right will from now on in see us over the top 6 line and only needing to win 1 in 3 on the road from now on in for an automatic spot should we make Bramall Lane a fortress and bag as near to maximum points as physically possible....Every couple of points dropped at home leaves us needing another win on the road if you want to look at it that way........

...............................................................................................................................................................................

A little premature I know however it gives us a realistic idea of what we need to do from now on in.......Don't get me wrong we have been fantastic of late but the real test begins now so long may this form continue!!
 



We have the same number of points as the season we got 90 points..in most seasons that would be sufficient.one more win than last time we did that would ensure our goal
 
We seem to start off well and then struggle, let's hope we don't repeat that. January is key, we need our board to resist selling our decent players. If we do that and we also add a few then I will start to believe.
 
The_Green_Man said:
Approximately 75pts or there about to secure a place in the top 6 come the end of the season, of course we don't want a top 6 spot because we have never achieved anything from the dreaded play-offs. But this still has to be our aim bare minimum and that leaves us with 47pts to achieve from a possible remaining 93pts available or 16 wins from the remaining 31 fixtures.

For a top 2 finish we are looking at 90pts or more if we are being more realistic, this leaves us seeking another 62pts from a possible 93pts up for grabs or again about 20-21 wins from a remaining 31 fixtures.

These figures are based on the below point totals of previous seasons.................

2015/2016
1st Wigan (87pts)
2nd Burton (85pts)
6th Barnsley (74pts)

2014/2015
1st Bristol City (99pts)
2nd MK Dons (91pts)
6th Chesterfield (69pts)

2013/2014
1st Wolves (103pts)
2nd Brentford (94pts)
6th Peterborough (74pts)

2012/2013
1st Doncaster (84pts)
2nd Bournemouth (83pts)
6th Swindon (74pts)

2011/2012
1st Charlton (101pts)
2nd Pigs (93pts)
6th Stevenage (73pts)

10/11 = 95,92,71, 09/10 = 95,86,80, 08/09 = 96,89,76, 07/08 = 92,82,76, 06/07 =91,85,75

........................................................................................................................................................................

Home form is key....

Without stating the obvious.......We have 16 league games remaining at home by my reckoning. Should we make BDTBL an absolute fortress and wipe the floor with all of our opposition, then this would probably be enough to secure that top 6 minimum finish.

This would then leave us hunting 5 wins from 15 fixtures on the road which is more than achievable.
............................................................................................................................................................................

Our last 10 games...

In our last 10 league games we have bagged 24pts from a possible 30pts which is fantastic form, this consists of 7 wins and 3 draws....

Obviously form like this, dropping the odd few points here and there would be more than enough to see us over the line. We can technically lose 1 in 3 from now on in as long as we win the other two and we are still in very good shape for a top two finish....

............................................................................................................................................................................

And finally in comparison to our previous seasons in this league...

This season with 15 games played we sit on 28 points. We had a patchy start but our recent form has well and truly turned our season around for us...

At the 15 game stage in our previous league one seasons, we have been on.......

15/16 = 24pts
14/15 = 26pts
13/14 = 12pts
12/13 = 31pts
11/12 = 28pts

.............................................................................................................................................................................

So in conclusion....

We have finally hit some really decent form with an 11 game unbeaten run that is on par with our fantastic first season under Danny Wilson however due to a terrible start to the campaign we are only a win or so better than our previous 2 campaigns.

We need to carry on this form especially at home because getting that right will from now on in see us over the top 6 line and only needing to win 1 in 3 on the road from now on in for an automatic spot should we make Bramall Lane a fortress and bag as near to maximum points as physically possible....Every couple of points dropped at home leaves us needing another win on the road if you want to look at it that way........

...............................................................................................................................................................................

A little premature I know however it gives us a realistic idea of what we need to do from now on in.......Don't get me wrong we have been fantastic of late but the real test begins now so long may this form continue!!
Click to expand...

Good post mate
 
Superblades said:
We seem to start off well and then struggle, let's hope we don't repeat that. January is key, we need our board to resist selling our decent players. If we do that and we also add a few then I will start to believe.
Click to expand...

I reckon we've already flogged all our players who might attract bids. On current form Fleck might have caught the eye of a few Championship teams, but then why didn't he move there in summer?

Losing EEL is the big threat on our horizon. It'll be interesting to see whether the new ownership are tempted to invest when we're top of the league, or will they demand we sell in order to buy?
 
Looking at the table he pointspread ,wont be too wide this season , there arent 3 or 4 clubs falling miles behind which usually means not many will get over 85 points
the current top 4 have opened a small 4 point gap
 
Just a couple of points -
Everybody else in the top 4 if not the whole division have fans doing the same calculations.
Fortress BL will lose points when teams come and park the bus and or on off days occur.
You enjoyed a night of looking up footstats! :D
 
It shouldn't take 90 points to get automatic promotion this season. The seasons where 2nd place have finished on 90 or more are seasons where the top two (or three) were outstanding. This season I only see us and Bolton who could possibly get 90+, and that's pushing it. I think 85 will be enough for 2nd place, like last season. Scunthorpe could throw a spanner in the works by keeping their form into the second half of the season though.
 
Crazy how its always the 6th place team that wins the playoffs. I think we will put and end to this stat this season and finish 6th and then the inevitable will happen! I hope to god I am wrong, but it would be typical if we were the ones to do it.
 



I think a better figure would be the number of points that 3rd finished with plus one, to use to calculate what would be required to seal promotion.

I've always worked on the assumption that 90 points would suffice for automatic promotion, and I work out how many points away from the target, and then divide it by the number of games remaining, and if we need less than 2 points per game we are on course, if it is over then we are he mind what is needed. Then with 10 games left I work out how many points are needed for automatic promotion, and just count down the points,

At the minute it stands at 62 points from 31 games which is bang on par at 2 points per game.

What will be critical will be our home form. In Previous seasons we have dropped points at home to mediocre clubs far too often to even get close to where we need to be, and that is one of the fundamental things that needs to change.
 
This seems as good a place as any to share some stats. Much has been made of our having played the top 3 away, Scunny supposedly having some tough games to come etc. Re the top 4, the cold hard stats say:
- Ave current pos of Scunny's opponents so far = 14.50 (H 13.25, A 15.75)
- Ave current pos of Bolton's opponents so far = 12.56 (H 12.88, A 12.25)
- Ave current pos of Bradford's opponents so far = 13.94 (H 14.25, A 13.63)
- Ave current pos of our opponents so far = 11 (H 10.83, A 11.11)

Of teams in the top 6:
- Scunny have played only us and Northampton, both at home
- Bolton have played Bradford and us at home, Rochdale away
- Bradford have played only Bolton away and us at home
- We have played all 3 of our 'rivals' away and Rochdale at home

As I think we all know we have had the toughest 3rd of the season and by some distance (of particular interest is the ave position of Scunny's away fixtures so far).

If we keep our discipline and intensity levels there's no reason we can't hit 2017 in top spot and thundering along nicely.
 
Deleted Member said:
I think a better figure would be the number of points that 3rd finished with plus one, to use to calculate what would be required to seal promotion.

I've always worked on the assumption that 90 points would suffice for automatic promotion, and I work out how many points away from the target, and then divide it by the number of games remaining, and if we need less than 2 points per game we are on course, if it is over then we are he mind what is needed. Then with 10 games left I work out how many points are needed for automatic promotion, and just count down the points,

At the minute it stands at 62 points from 31 games which is bang on par at 2 points per game.

What will be critical will be our home form. In Previous seasons we have dropped points at home to mediocre clubs far too often to even get close to where we need to be, and that is one of the fundamental things that needs to change.
Click to expand...
surely you mean points second finished with plus one, as plus one on third place would leave us in third, in the playoffs and we don't do playoffs.
 
prince albert said:
surely you mean points second finished with plus one, as plus one on third place would leave us in third, in the playoffs and we don't do playoffs.
Click to expand...
Not this again...

http://www.s24su.com/forum/index.ph...s-whether-or-not-we-can-get-100-points.49799/

Debate starts at #51 and I think it was agreed that there's two ways of looking at it, and that either one can be correct. ;)

Edit: scratch that (and save yourself some time) the debate is slightly different in this context and I agree that for the purposes of measuring what is necessary to finish second you should be looking at matching (or surpassing) the average points tally of the team in second.
 
Last edited:



You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Champagneblade
Carpe Diem
2
Replies
39
Views
4K
Lupa The Noa
Lupa The Noa
ucandomagic
Matchday 24 – Stoked up for the New Year, and some Playoff Facts (rather than Emotions).
Replies
22
Views
1K
ThirdGenBlade
T
GreasyChipBeattie
Will we send Wednesday down?
18 19 20
Replies
592
Views
45K
SwissBlade
SwissBlade
SUFCScorecard
Pathway to the Playoffs
8 9 10
Replies
288
Views
21K
Dkc
Dkc
ucandomagic
We Can Still Finish 6th - Pre Matchday 29 - New Graphs & Charts
2 3 4
Replies
90
Views
4K
JayGreen17
JayGreen17

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

Back
Top Bottom