ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Here are the updates to the 2 standard graphs that I am now doing.
Graph 1 shows our progress against the 3 benchmark sets of results which I created to achieve 3 different objectives when Hecky took over: -
a chance of the playoffs (71 points);
almost certain playoff achievement (78 points).
almost certain automatic promotion (90 points).
Although we have now fallen away from what was a very demanding set of results to get to 90 points, and in fact we would now simply have to win every one of our last 11 games!, I now include Bournemouth's results on the graph. Bournemouth have a tough run in, which I've listed at the end of this post, and we can only hope that they drop points and fall towards and below that 90 point line.
However, Graph 1 does show that we are still 2 Point ahead of my benchmark results to get to 78 points and almost certain playoffs.
The other interesting graph that I have been doing separately is comparing our season with Slav's season with Fulham in 17/18 - the season where they started fairly poorly and then went on to 88 points, 3rd place and won the Playoffs. In fact, they would have been second had they won their final game against Birmingham.
Graph 2 shows that the similarity for the whole season until the Millwall game was amazing - although we have fallen away a bit now. It does, however, show what sort of run can be maintained - and if we could match Fulham's 17/18 results from now until the end of the season we would get 83 points - probably enough for 3rd or 4th.
So, overall, we are well on target for the playoffs - and we can only keep winning and hope that Bournemouth start to get nervous as the finishing line gets closer. The good news is, that if we can get some pressure on them with 5 to go their last 5 are home to Fulham, away at Swansea, away at Blackburn, home to Forest and home to Millwall. So at least 4 losable games if you're under pressure, and on top of that they come to our fortress on April 9th.
Slava Ukraini
Graph 1
Graph 2
Graph 1 shows our progress against the 3 benchmark sets of results which I created to achieve 3 different objectives when Hecky took over: -
a chance of the playoffs (71 points);
almost certain playoff achievement (78 points).
almost certain automatic promotion (90 points).
Although we have now fallen away from what was a very demanding set of results to get to 90 points, and in fact we would now simply have to win every one of our last 11 games!, I now include Bournemouth's results on the graph. Bournemouth have a tough run in, which I've listed at the end of this post, and we can only hope that they drop points and fall towards and below that 90 point line.
However, Graph 1 does show that we are still 2 Point ahead of my benchmark results to get to 78 points and almost certain playoffs.
The other interesting graph that I have been doing separately is comparing our season with Slav's season with Fulham in 17/18 - the season where they started fairly poorly and then went on to 88 points, 3rd place and won the Playoffs. In fact, they would have been second had they won their final game against Birmingham.
Graph 2 shows that the similarity for the whole season until the Millwall game was amazing - although we have fallen away a bit now. It does, however, show what sort of run can be maintained - and if we could match Fulham's 17/18 results from now until the end of the season we would get 83 points - probably enough for 3rd or 4th.
So, overall, we are well on target for the playoffs - and we can only keep winning and hope that Bournemouth start to get nervous as the finishing line gets closer. The good news is, that if we can get some pressure on them with 5 to go their last 5 are home to Fulham, away at Swansea, away at Blackburn, home to Forest and home to Millwall. So at least 4 losable games if you're under pressure, and on top of that they come to our fortress on April 9th.
Slava Ukraini
Graph 1
Graph 2
