Conclusions from Bolton

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James (I hope I've got that right),

Good post mate, and with your usual cautious optimism you've identified many salient points about our play. The key is consistency, and this must apply to each player being self-motivated and able to gee himself up for every game.

As you've so rightly mentioned, Norwood has been a game-changer, and Stevens especially has benefited for Norwood's vision. Still early days, but if Norwood's performances so far are the standard he sets himself then we're about to see the Blades creep up the table and win far more than we lose.
 

Blades Analytics said:
Ots

Its a fantastic point you raise and your quite correct. In terms of a players actual movements I can track them by action location so I can see where they produce most of their action's and heat maps show all ground covered and raise awareness of main areas covered but you're right, none of these can show exactly what happened. Reason for that is simple really, football is behind the curve on tracking data. Especially in the public sense. Until then we have to just use what we have to best illustrate our points but excellent pickup mate.

In terms of managers, I have good friends analysing clubs in full knowledge the manager isn't that interested but coaches are and training is tailored to that effect. In this day and age if you don't use analysis you're behind the curve immediately
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You are very persuasive - you have made even me optimistic with your report! A question I know I will regret, but I must ask - are there any stats to show that a club's use of stats actually works?
 
HodgysBrokenThumb said:
You are very persuasive - you have made even me optimistic with your report! A question I know I will regret, but I must ask - are there any stats to show that a club's use of stats actually works?
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That's an excellent question. My theory, you wouldn't know until years after. Because any club that now finds an edge with statistical analysis especially for recruitment or in performance analysis will keep it as secret as possible, i guess the best current team examples with success are Brentford (who i think everyone is aware of their model) and Liverpool. Liverpool especially poignant since Rodgers was axed as they basically gave artisitc licence to Michael Edwards and the technical recruitment dept to suggest names, that in turn led to Firmino, Mane, Salah etc. I mean having money helps of course! Brighton and Fulham both use data massively in their recruitment too as seen by many players they signed this summer. I would again argue though that from an analysis perspective, all clubs use this, the extent of which is the only thing that differs. David Sharpe the Wigan Chairman even tweeted out an xG vs actual goals scored graphic yesterday to show how well Wigan had started the season. Trust me its in football more than you can imagine.
 
itsinyerblood said:
James (I hope I've got that right),

Good post mate, and with your usual cautious optimism you've identified many salient points about our play. The key is consistency, and this must apply to each player being self-motivated and able to gee himself up for every game.

As you've so rightly mentioned, Norwood has been a game-changer, and Stevens especially has benefited for Norwood's vision. Still early days, but if Norwood's performances so far are the standard he sets himself then we're about to see the Blades creep up the table and win far more than we lose.
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Yes i think its key to note anything at the minute is such a small sample size it's almost inconsequential, but it's football so of course we are going to talk about even if we shouldn't until at least 8-10 games!
 
Blades Analytics said:
Hopefully that does the trick if not let me know, happy to explain and bore everyone here!
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Only got about halfway through and need to get some actual work done - I work with processes, so a lot of this type of analysis isn't unfamiliar, I'm also a numbers geek in my own training performance, so it doesn't get boring. I'm actually doing some performance analysis courses in the next few months, so this comes at a good time.

One thing though. In Point 2, its quite a bold statement that after only 5 games and only a very small number of data points (isn't it something like 23 that you need to see a trend?) that you are sticking your neck out to say we're a top half side.

I think on your podcast you said 10-12 for the Blades, so it doesn't venture too far from this, I had us down for 8th myself, however, i think its early to say that we're there yet. After all the three wins have come against poorer sides, defeats against better sides. Though as you say, the wins are wins we didn't really get last season

Villa will be a big test, the key for me will be getting goals from different areas of the pitch. Like from distance.
 
Blades Analytics said:
Afternoon S2

First post in here so please be gentle as no doubt there will be some strong views on the kind of stuff i produce! However if you do have an interest then here is my analysis from Clayton Donaldson Derby:

https://www.uptheblades.com/latest-articles/2018/8/28/conclusions-from-bolton-0-3-blades

Any thoughts or feedback appreciated as always, which is a horrific setup for some comments but i'll risk it!
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Brilliant work mate . So good in fact I think you're going to be very busy on here :)
 
SwissBlade said:
Only got about halfway through and need to get some actual work done - I work with processes, so a lot of this type of analysis isn't unfamiliar, I'm also a numbers geek in my own training performance, so it doesn't get boring. I'm actually doing some performance analysis courses in the next few months, so this comes at a good time.

One thing though. In Point 2, its quite a bold statement that after only 5 games and only a very small number of data points (isn't it something like 23 that you need to see a trend?) that you are sticking your neck out to say we're a top half side.

I think on your podcast you said 10-12 for the Blades, so it doesn't venture too far from this, I had us down for 8th myself, however, i think its early to say that we're there yet. After all the three wins have come against poorer sides, defeats against better sides. Though as you say, the wins are wins we didn't really get last season

Villa will be a big test, the key for me will be getting goals from different areas of the pitch. Like from distance.
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Yeah i did admit it could come back to haunt me and you're quite right, in a pure data form its a poor sample size and i would never make assertions on it. That statement is based on last season, the additions to the squad, the 5 games gone so far and the rest of the league. I think their are some big names in this league but players wise and numbers wise i'm not sure they produce what most think they do. As i always say as nerdy and fact orientated as i can be, i'm as passionate and unreasonable as anyone and it gets the better of me at times! perhaps it has here too! I just get that feeling looking at the all the performance statistics from last season that we simply lacked 2 things, clean sheets/game management and goals from other areas. There is of course lots more you could add we need but those are the 2 obvious ones from the numbers.
 
Very impressed with your analysis. I also liked your enthusiasm and description on the Sheffield TV show. You were much better prepared than Mr Biggs and the backroom staff who couldn't get your stuff on the screen in the 21st century. I'm just in the process of subscribing.
 
Like the Basham analysis.

Some of the simplistic negativity about him at times annoys me.
 
Blades Analytics,

James,

I really enjoyed your appearance on the Alan Partridge show. A glimpse of intelligent life at last.

I’ll be honest, statistics are properly linked with lies and damned lies. However, unlike some with a hobby horse you acknowledged limitations and the importance of visual observations.

Football can’t be played on paper or by computer. No statistical diagram can adequately describe a Pele, Beckenbauer, Platini or Currie, nor should statistics seek to prescribe how they should play. There’s no template for genius. I guess you would accept that?

Anyway, you came across as a thoroughly pleasant, cheerful guy and a good Blade. Delighted you don’t watch the match with a laptop in front of you!

Would gladly have a pint with you but you might find me hard work! Most do.

Welcome.
❤️⚔️
 

Pinchy said:
Blades Analytics,

James,

I really enjoyed your appearance on the Alan Partridge show. A glimpse of intelligent life at last.

I’ll be honest, statistics are properly linked with lies and damned lies. However, unlike some with a hobby horse you acknowledged limitations and the importance of visual observations.

Football can’t be played on paper or by computer. No statistical diagram can adequately describe a Pele, Beckenbauer, Platini or Currie, nor should statistics seek to prescribe how they should play. There’s no template for genius. I guess you would accept that?

Anyway, you came across as a thoroughly pleasant, cheerful guy and a good Blade. Delighted you don’t watch the match with a laptop in front of you!

Would gladly have a pint with you but you might find me hard work! Most do.

Welcome.
❤️⚔️
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Pinchy,

No issue with any of that! i accept that my content isn't for everyone and i accept you're right in many ways. I am a football fan first and foremost and even when i did my performance analysis course it was based on letting your eyes dictate what you want to investigate further. Hopefully if nothing else the odd thing i post might peak an interest or hit something your eyes have seen and you agree with. Conversely it may be complete opposite of what you think and that's great, why would we have a forum this good if not for debating! thank you very much for the kind words though greatly received! hopefully the only stat that will matter come May is the one that puts in the top 6....UTB
 
A brilliant read . Well done! Mr wilder likes his stats , so you never know. They might come knocking!
 
Davalon said:
Like the Basham analysis.

Some of the simplistic negativity about him at times annoys me.
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Agreed . Though I love the guy, his commitment to the cause and unquestionable motivation I still view him as one of our ' weak links ' . Fuck knows why ???
 
Blades Analytics said:
Yeah i did admit it could come back to haunt me and you're quite right, in a pure data form its a poor sample size and i would never make assertions on it. That statement is based on last season, the additions to the squad, the 5 games gone so far and the rest of the league. I think their are some big names in this league but players wise and numbers wise i'm not sure they produce what most think they do. As i always say as nerdy and fact orientated as i can be, i'm as passionate and unreasonable as anyone and it gets the better of me at times! perhaps it has here too! I just get that feeling looking at the all the performance statistics from last season that we simply lacked 2 things, clean sheets/game management and goals from other areas. There is of course lots more you could add we need but those are the 2 obvious ones from the numbers.
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It wasn't a criticism by any stretch, just interested that you made it early on.

My caution comes from the lessons we can learn from last season - that many of the better sides which are under performing now, won't be under performing in 3 months time. Fulham are a great example of this.

It was interesting listening to your Championship predictions a few days ago, Stoke have had a shocking start, but you guys had them down to be in that top group. We all know that they will be up there at the end. Whether that be in the play offs or top two will depend on how competitive this division is this season.

I think its going to be so tight this season, Boro and Leeds have started strongly, but the likes of Brentford and Villa are dropping points.

I normally say on this forum that we need to wait 10 games or until the end of September to really see how the league is settling down.

However, for what its worth, i think recent performances back up your statement. Wilder and Knill have learnt a lot from last season and I'd be surprised if we're far away from our predictions.
 
Blades Analytics said:
Pinchy,

No issue with any of that! i accept that my content isn't for everyone and i accept you're right in many ways. I am a football fan first and foremost and even when i did my performance analysis course it was based on letting your eyes dictate what you want to investigate further. Hopefully if nothing else the odd thing i post might peak an interest or hit something your eyes have seen and you agree with. Conversely it may be complete opposite of what you think and that's great, why would we have a forum this good if not for debating! thank you very much for the kind words though greatly received! hopefully the only stat that will matter come May is the one that puts in the top 6....UTB
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I think I gave slightly the wrong impression there, James. I think your stuff is both interesting and valuable. What I was emphasising, and you seemed to accept this on the show, is that it has to be part of the whole rather than determinative.

I’m delighted your analysis confirmed my views on Leon and Enda Stevens.

What’s the probability of us signing Hogan or Fletcher? :)
 
Pinchy said:
I think I gave slightly the wrong impression there, James. I think your stuff is both interesting and valuable. What I was emphasising, and you seemed to accept this on the show, is that it has to be part of the whole rather than determinative.

I’m delighted your analysis confirmed my views on Leon and Enda Stevens.

What’s the probability of us signing Hogan or Fletcher? :)
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Excellent glad i could be of assistance mate!

From what i know, and i do not pretend to be ITK, Hogan is the one with best chance as Villa are expecting to get 1 in in next few days!
 
Blades Analytics said:
Excellent glad i could be of assistance mate!

From what i know, and i do not pretend to be ITK, Hogan is the one with best chance as Villa are expecting to get 1 in in next few days!
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It’s better to be NITFK like me. Less pressure...
:)
 
Blades Analytics said:
Pinchy,

No issue with any of that! i accept that my content isn't for everyone and i accept you're right in many ways. I am a football fan first and foremost and even when i did my performance analysis course it was based on letting your eyes dictate what you want to investigate further. Hopefully if nothing else the odd thing i post might peak an interest or hit something your eyes have seen and you agree with. Conversely it may be complete opposite of what you think and that's great, why would we have a forum this good if not for debating! thank you very much for the kind words though greatly received! hopefully the only stat that will matter come May is the one that puts in the top 6....UTB
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Thank you James. Really enjoyed your report. Your level-headed approach to use facts to draw your conclusions but also use caution to accept the limitations and frailties of the system is refreshing.

As humans, perceptions and feelings will always influence our opinions but for me, statistics can help us reach a more true and fair conclusion.
 
Welcome Jay and what a way to start! I've been hoping to see you on here since I saw the Sheffield Live show. Your stats back up what I (we all) saw on Saturday and saves me from thinking I'm bonkers when I read some of the crapola on FB. Keep it coming :) UTB
 
Interesting you have identified and highlighted areas of weakness were keeping clean sheets and game management. Early days I know, but does the acquisition of Egan, show any significant statistical change from last season in these areas?
 
A thoroughly splendid , insightful and very well written piece of work . Take a bow young man and make sure you come back with many more .

Whilst I found myself agreeing with virtually everything you said , I think you slightly downplayed the goals conceded . For example , Cardiff only scored 7 more goals than us but conceded 13 less and that made all the difference between automatic promotion and not even making the play offs .

However , I'm sure CW is conscious of this and , with our new super duper goalie , I'll be very surprised if we don't concede at least half a dozen less this season and that will make a big difference to our final position .
 

Blades Analytics said:
Afternoon S2

First post in here so please be gentle as no doubt there will be some strong views on the kind of stuff i produce! However if you do have an interest then here is my analysis from Clayton Donaldson Derby:

https://www.uptheblades.com/latest-articles/2018/8/28/conclusions-from-bolton-0-3-blades

Any thoughts or feedback appreciated as always, which is a horrific setup for some comments but i'll risk it!
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Extremely interesting read. Bergen Blade is going to love it!
 
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