Compared with last season...

[Kenilworth]

Poor. Piss poor. Penalties and own goals won't keep us up.

View attachment 6690 Shall I put Saturday's graph up now?

Is it worth putting in a base line target of 50 points as the minimum barrier to avoid relegation?
Just be a little clearer as to the margin we are missing it by as each set of results comes in.

 

[grafikhaus]

Is it worth putting in a base line target of 50 points as the minimum barrier to avoid relegation?
Just be a little clearer as to the margin we are missing it by as each set of results comes in.

Good call, Kenilworth. The 'current' and 'projected' lines are just following each other around. Here's a new version:



Until I suss out how to colour cells in the chart linked to the source data (which I want to do to illustrate the difference in manager performances), Weir's last game was Game 10, showing a marked improvement under NC.

 

[Kenilworth]

Weir's last game was Game 10, showing a marked improvement under NC.

Not so convinced you need any colour coding for that one, Graffers.
It sticks out a mile, rather like a sore cock

 

[grafikhaus]

Are we turning the corner? Top result today.

 

[grafikhaus]

It's not pretty, but if we can get to the JTW without too much damage, I think the corner has been turned...

 

[raul]

The 50 point line finishes up at 40 points on the graph?

 

[grafikhaus]

The 50 point line finishes up at 40 points on the graph?

Bugger. Computer's fault... (If we beat Stevenage next week, the projection rises above the 50 point prediction (50.4 pts.) for the first time this season

 

[Maidenhead]

Thanks for your efforts Grafikhaus.

As a numbers person I enjoy following your graphs which represent facts not overstated, overhyped personal opinions.

Cheers fella, keep up the good work

 

[Selly]

Good call, Kenilworth. The 'current' and 'projected' lines are just following each other around. Here's a new version:
View attachment 6696
Until I suss out how to colour cells in the chart linked to the source data (which I want to do to illustrate the difference in manager performances), Weir's last game was Game 10, showing a marked improvement under NC.

here you go, a graphical represnatation of:
Blue dashed line - Projected Points under Weir (using his time as manager as the Average PPG gained)
Red dashed Line - Projected Points under Clough (using his time as manager as the Average PPG gained)
Green dashed Line - Projected Points based on Season Average PPG
Purple Line - what has really happened
Blue dotted line = 50pts PPG Average

 

[grafikhaus]

here you go, a graphical representation

Oi! Get off my bloody thread!

 

[grafikhaus]

Another clean sheet but the lowest scorers in the League. Think we all know what needs to be done in the JTW.

 

[grafikhaus]

Bang on target to scrape 50 points!

 

[anglian blade]

20 points from the last 12 games. if we keep that up we will end up with around 63 points

 

[stringjunior]

20 points from the last 12 games. if we keep that up we will end up with around 63 points

That's almost promotion form. Who'd have thought it.....

 

[BladeInBC]

To get in the playoffs (!) we're going to need 2 points per game to get to 75 points - which, based on previous 6th placed teams would be just enough (barring one recent season where someone got 80 in 6th). Current form (last 6 games) is 1.67. Admittedly we're heading in the right direction but to average 2 points per game is asking too much for us? Of course Wednesday could do it!

 

[Sirius]

Dear Tranmere,

You are not good enough to maintain a top two position. You will drop like a stone sometime soon. It's a long season. I can remember teams being 10 points clear of relegation at Christmas yet still going down. Well done on your start but it won't last.

And it didn't. Pinchy you nailed this one. October 2012 Unfortunately, as they have fallen, so have we.

 

[Pinchy]

And it didn't. Pinchy you nailed this one. October 2012 Unfortunately, as they have fallen, so have we.

Indeed, but we shall rise again

I can't gloat though. I also predicted Wendy, Donny and Bournemouth would not be promoted!

 

[grafikhaus]

That's almost promotion form. Who'd have thought it.....

Never doubted it. On TFLS show last night, Leroy Rosenior was talking about Brentford. 'Everybody knows David Weir is an excellent coach...'

We can thank him for laying the foundations...

 

[grafikhaus]

Just watching Final Score and, in the space of seconds Brighton, Burnley & QPR have scored late, late goals. In other words, teams who are winners. We used to get vital, late goals. Unfortunately, Warnock is no longer with us...

 

[Ollessendro]

Team played (H/A) last season this season compared vs last season
Notts C (H) 1 3 +2
Brentford (A) 0 0 +2
Colchester (H) 3 1 0
Bradford (A)* 1.75 0 -1.75
MK Dons (H) 1 0 -2.75
Rotherham (A)* 1.75 0 -4.5
Carlisle (A) 3 0 -7.5
Preston (H) 1 0 -8.5
Wolves (A)** 2.333 0 - 10.88

We're more than 10 points worse off than last season, when comparing game to game


* won at Hartlepool, drew at Scunny, lost at Pompey and won at Bury = 7/4 = 1.75
** Won away at Bournemouth, drew at Donny and won at Yeovil = 7/3= 2.333

As we lost the game at home against Crawley last season, then that was an improvement. We are now -9.88 points down on the same games from last season.

Since Crawley we’ve had the following results:

** edit: see attachment. OP did not work formatting wise. **

That leaves us -15.37 down on last season in terms of the equivalent games.

Taking the results since Clough has been in charge shows that there has been a big change, but he has not done as well as Wilson did. Clough’s results are -3.58 down on last season. That could be argued to be pretty good considering he inherited a team doing very badly.

 

[grafikhaus]

I'm afraid this 'sticking plaster' approach in the JTW will see us in or around relegation for the rest of the season.

 

[Ollessendro]

Since Crawley we’ve had the following results:

** edit: see attachment. OP did not work formatting wise. **

That leaves us -15.37 down on last season in terms of the equivalent games.

Taking the results since Clough has been in charge shows that there has been a big change, but he has not done as well as Wilson did. Clough’s results are -3.58 down on last season. That could be argued to be pretty good considering he inherited a team doing very badly.

as we drew away at County last year, that puts us -16.37 down on the equivalent games from last season. Clough's results are -4.58 down on Wilson's results from last term.

 

[grafikhaus]

Absolutely fantastic game today. Fair result, good crowd but still in shit!


Tight as it was in the 2nd half, this is why I hold no hope for a late, decisive goal:

​

 

[grafikhaus]

No point in waiting for the final whistle. Two goals will always be too much for United. Getting very serious now.

 

[UnitedBlade]

No point in waiting for the final whistle. Two goals will always be too much for United. Getting very serious now.

View attachment 7148

Looks like England, always behind the required run rate.

And we know what happens at the end of every England game

 

[grafikhaus]

Looks like England, always behind the required run rate.

And we know what happens at the end of every England game

We lose to France?

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

No point in waiting for the final whistle. Two goals will always be too much for United. Getting very serious now.

View attachment 7148

We still only need two wins and a draw more than we expected to get to safety.

I think we will get those 7 points, it's the other 18 I'm worried about.

In fact when you think we only need to gain 25 points in the 3rd division and we are struggling to get them, it's frightening.

 

[grafikhaus]

Phew! Needed that!

But continue our second-half fade-out...

​

 

[Ollessendro]

I think it is harsh to say that we faded out 2nd half verse Shrewsbury. Whilst it would have been nice to have panned them, we shut up shop and played out the game professionally. They came out up for it 2nd period and we nullified them. I was pleased with that. We had chances and could have scored 2nd half (plus there was Porter’s disallowed goal). After a big game during the week and 120 mins football, I cannot blame Clough for setting us up defensively in the 2nd half. We’ve done this a few times now (Villa and Fulham stand out) and it might just save us …. Especially considering our poor goalscoring record. Anyway, that's just my opinion. Here's some stats .....
In terms of versus last season then we are now -16.62 down on last season, after drawing at home vs Bradford (1.25 average vs relegated teams last year) and beating Shrewsbury (who we also beat last year). Clough’s results are -4.83 on Wilson’s over the equivalent games.

Our current projected points is 48, but I think this is slightly misleading as it includes Weir’s results. Under Clough we he have picked up 20 points from 15 games (W5, D5, L5) meaning we have a 1.33 points per game average. Extrapolating over the remaining games would mean we pick up 24 points. This gives us a projected points tally of 52. Fancy adding that to your chart grafikhaus ?

I’ve had a look at the relegation stats over the years and done some analysis. I have taken the points of the team that finished 4th bottom. I’ve attached an XL sheet that includes analysis for the geeks. The range is from 44 points (lucky buggers) to 55 (harsh for a team to go down with 54 points!) and the mean average is 49, mode is also 49 and median is 47. This would suggest that 49 is the magic number.

The stats suggest that we really ought to stop up. We’ve had a bit of a turnaround under Clough and we out to comfortably finish above the relegation zone. Getting around 52 points would put us 15th or 16th looking at other clubs current projected points tally. Notts County are currently projected to get 45 points, so it would be awful if we got less than that. Of course this is not sure, as sample sizes are small and there is always uncertainty.

 

[cooperblade]

Saturday's result put us 17th in the 'true table' (points per game)


13 Crawley Town 25 7 10 8 29 34 -5 31 1.24
14 Gillingham 31 11 5 15 42 53 -11 38 1.23
15 Bradford City 29 7 14 8 41 37 +4 35 1.21
16 Oldham Athletic 30 9 7 14 34 42 -8 34 1.13
17 Sheffield United 28 7 8 13 28 38 -10 29 1.04
18 Carlisle United 29 8 6 15 33 51 -18 30 1.03
19 Tranmere Rovers 30 8 7 15 33 52 -19 31 1.03
20 Crewe Alexandra 30 8 7 15 33 57 -24 31 1.03
21 Notts County 31 9 3 19 40 50 -10 30 0.97
22 Bristol City 30 5 13 12 42 49 -7 28 0.93
23 Stevenage 27 7 4 16 27 45 -18 25 0.93
24 Shrewsbury Town 30 6 9 15 28 41 -13 27 0.90