Compared with last season...

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The points prediction seems to get less after each game just now and the comparison graph to last season shows very similar trends I'm afraid. Not good reading.
 



PeterNdlovu081 said:
What nonsense is this?

We're three points down on last season.
Click to expand...
Let me explain

Rather than grafikhaus comparing our position at this point last year to this year , which is in itself really interesting, I am comparing how we did in the same head to head matches last year to this year

So, for example against leeds at home last year we won. This year we lost, so we are 3 points down.

Overall in the 15 comparable games versus last season we are currently 10 points up

17/18 - W4 D4 L7 = 16 points

18/19 - W8 D2 L5 = 26 points

If you compare the 5 other games we've played against teams relegated or promoted to this league we are about 5 points down on last year. So overall we are 5 points ahead on comparable games.

It's an alternative view to the grafikhaus approach but without the graphs.
 
blade67 said:
Let me explain

Rather than grafikhaus comparing our position at this point last year to this year , which is in itself really interesting, I am comparing how we did in the same head to head matches last year to this year

So, for example against leeds at home last year we won. This year we lost, so we are 3 points down.

Overall in the 15 comparable games versus last season we are currently 10 points up

17/18 - W4 D4 L7 = 16 points

18/19 - W8 D2 L5 = 26 points

If you compare the 5 other games we've played against teams relegated or promoted to this league we are about 5 points down on last year. So overall we are 5 points ahead on comparable games.

It's an alternative view to the grafikhaus approach but without the graphs.
Click to expand...

Why such a contrived way of doing it though?

It's meaningless, It doesn't tell you anything.
 
blade67 said:
If you compare the 5 other games we've played against teams relegated or promoted to this league we are about 5 points down on last year..
Click to expand...

Last season we got 19 points from playing against Wolves, Cardiff, Fulham, Barnsley, Burton and Sunderland.

This season we got 8 points from Swansea, Stoke, Rotherham, Wigan and Blackburn.

19/36 (2017-18)
8/15 (2018-19)

Much less than 5 points down on last season
 
Silent Blade said:
Last season we got 19 points from playing against Wolves, Cardiff, Fulham, Barnsley, Burton and Sunderland.

This season we got 8 points from Swansea, Stoke, Rotherham, Wigan and Blackburn.

19/36 (2017-18)
8/15 (2018-19)

Much less than 5 points down on last season
Click to expand...
Thanks Silent, my logic for 5 behind is below

the 5 games look like this based on comparable positions, so a 5 point deficit
Swansea (home_lost) - Wolves - difference @ - 3
Stoke (home_drew)- Cardiff difference @ 0
West Brom - Fulham
Wigan (home_won)- Barnsley difference @ 0
Blackburn(away_won) - Burton - difference @ 0
Rotherham(away_drew) - Sunderland difference @ - 2

I've tried to extend the "comparable" games but you are right on average. I think the point I'm trying to make is that we "might" have had a more difficult run of games this year and therefore might find we are in a better position than our points tally so far shows.

On the other hand, it's all a bi of trivial shit ;-)
 
blade67 said:
Thanks Silent, my logic for 5 behind is below

the 5 games look like this based on comparable positions, so a 5 point deficit
Swansea (home_lost) - Wolves - difference @ - 3
Stoke (home_drew)- Cardiff difference @ 0
West Brom - Fulham
Wigan (home_won)- Barnsley difference @ 0
Blackburn(away_won) - Burton - difference @ 0
Rotherham(away_drew) - Sunderland difference @ - 2

I've tried to extend the "comparable" games but you are right on average. I think the point I'm trying to make is that we "might" have had a more difficult run of games this year and therefore might find we are in a better position than our points tally so far shows.

On the other hand, it's all a bi of trivial shit ;-)
Click to expand...
Understood. My logic is that if we beat West Brom on the 14th, we are doing slightly better on average than last season, slightly worse on average if we dont win.
 



PeterNdlovu081 said:
Why such a contrived way of doing it though?

It's meaningless, It doesn't tell you anything.
Click to expand...

Tells you how everyone's developing.

We're getting more points against teams we played last season mostly, which indicates that we've improved and they've either stood still or gone backwards.

If everyone changed their entire squad at the end of the season it'd be meaningless.
 
PeterNdlovu081 said:
Why such a contrived way of doing it though?

It's meaningless, It doesn't tell you anything.
Click to expand...

It's not contrived or meaningless, it's completely logical. Rather than comparing on the basis of date, he's comparing on the basis of opposition. That's at least as valid a measure - arguably better.

I find both Grafikhaus' and Blade67's analysis really interesting.
 
8lade said:
Good, we've got our bad patch out of the way early this season!
Click to expand...

Our 'bad patch' (so far) this season was losing our first two games. Since then we've had four 'bad patches' - each lasting just one (lost) game. That's where I see the value in doing this - it's not comparing 'like-for-like', but more a trend.
blade67 said:
grafikhaus . looking at your graph we got 9 points from the next 9 games. Hopefully we can improve quite a bit on that
Click to expand...

Again, from here on we only had two spells where we lost two games in a row last season, but it's the draws that'll kill you. Last season, game 17 was pivotal (Burton away where we lost Coutts). After a good start, we 'tailed off' whereas I doubt if that will be the case this season. Personally, I don't go for the 'never get a better chance'/'it's now or never' scenario. Just over 2 years ago (Nov. 29, 2016) we lost 0-1 at home to Walsall in League One. Let's remember how far we've come.

Softly, softly and all that.
 
Comparing results against opponents (or the team that replaced promoted / relegated sides) we a re still 5 points up on last season

2017/18 - W9 D5 L7 = 32

2018/19 - W11 D4 L6 = 37

4 points earned from the next 3 games last season

Graph would make more sense with opponents on x-axis than game numbers but I've not worked out how to do that yet ;-)

upload_2018-12-9_7-34-58.pngupload_2018-12-9_7-34-58.png
 
blade67 said:
Comparing results against opponents (or the team that replaced promoted / relegated sides) we a re still 5 points up on last season

2017/18 - W9 D5 L7 = 32

2018/19 - W11 D4 L6 = 37

4 points earned from the next 3 games last season

Graph would make more sense with opponents on x-axis than game numbers but I've not worked out how to do that yet ;-)

View attachment 46739View attachment 46739
Click to expand...

Are you using Microsoft Excel?
 



Same points for games played.
One less win.
3 more draws.
2 less losses.
Scored same amount of goals.
Conceded 2 goals fewer.

Top team 5 points less.
2nd team 2 points less.
Team in 6th One point less.

Seems like we are slightly better. In an easier division.

17 18.png 18 19.png
 
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