Compared with last season...

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Kingston Blade said:
Fulham were 12th this time last year!!View attachment 46767
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I think Stoke will be this year’s Fulham, their results have started to pick up of late, they have a very talented squad and funds to kick on in January.

I see Villa and West Brom investing heavily in January and replacing the current top two. I think Leeds will drop off a little and finish 3rd - 5th with Derby and Stoke occupying the other spots. I then envisage a bit of a dogfight between Forest, Middlesbrough, Norwich and ourselves for 6th spot.

Sadly, without (an unlikely) serious investment, I think we’ll finish just short again. 7-9th.
 
morganselbow said:
I think Stoke will be this year’s Fulham, their results have started to pick up of late, they have a very talented squad and funds to kick on in January.

I see Villa and West Brom investing heavily in January and replacing the current top two. I think Leeds will drop off a little and finish 3rd - 5th with Derby and Stoke occupying the other spots. I then envisage a bit of a dogfight between Forest, Middlesbrough, Norwich and ourselves for 6th spot.

Sadly, without (an unlikely) serious investment, I think we’ll finish just short again. 7-9th.
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Yes it's coming for Stoke. they'll be there or thereabouts. Work with a load of chipeaters, so no doubt I'll be hearing about it soon enough :rolleyes:
 
By the end of last season we had averaged 1.1 point per game against teams in the Top12, and 1.875 points per game against teams in the Bottom 12.

This season to date we are again averaging 1.1 point per game against the Top 12, but 2.36 points per game against the Bottom 12.
(At this point last season we had the same 37 points, and we had averaged 1.3 points against the final Top 12 teams and 2.1 points against the Bottom 12 teams)

As we have discussed in other threads, it seems that we have definitely become more efficient at gathering points from the poorer teams (particularly away from home). If we continued to deliver the same return over the whole season, we would finish on about 81 points - probably in 4th or 5th place.

That would be real progress, and would imply that we had managed to raise our level of consistency over a full season. The next step in continuous improvement, if we failed to get through the playoffs, would clearly be a need to raise our quality as well as our consistency, in order to compete better against the higher performing teams.

Our Magic Continues to Grow
 
Still 5 points up on last year based on comparable opponents

10 points from our next 5 opponents last season, so things get a bit tougher.

In fact we won 10 of the next 16 comparable matches last year.


upload_2018-12-17_22-0-47.png
 
PeterNdlovu081 said:
You really need to drop this.

Again, were back on the same amount of points as we were at this stage last season.
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Why does he? We’ve had this discussion on the thread already. A lot of people find Blade67’s analysis interesting. If you don’t, that’s fine - just don’t look at it.
 
PeterNdlovu081 said:
It's misleading and chaotic in thought.

I absolutely love stats but that one is just bogus.
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If you've played x number of games, and wish to compare performance in those games against the previous season, then how difficult those games were, based on the quality of the opposition and home advantage, is at least as valid a basis for comparison as the week of the season.

The fact that we won away against a given team this season, when we lost the same fixture last season, is at least as relevant as the fact that we won our 13th game this season, where as we lost our 13th game last season. They're both measures of progress, each interesting in their own way.
 
WorkingtonBlade said:
If you've played x number of games, and wish to compare performance in those games against the previous season, then how difficult those games were, based on the quality of the opposition and home advantage, is at least as valid a basis for comparison as the week of the season.

The fact that we won away against a given team this season, when we lost the same fixture last season, is at least as relevant as the fact that we won our 13th game this season, where as we lost our 13th game last season. They're both measures of progress, each interesting in their own way.
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I disagree.

An opponent could be considerably better or worse than they were last season.

So in an extremely contrived but still possible situation we could be bottom of the league this season but still X amount of points up on comparable opponents from last season. It's nonsensical.

Simply comparing our points tally from this season to last season gives a much more balanced and realistic overview of how we're performing.
 
PeterNdlovu081 said:
I disagree.

An opponent could be considerably better or worse than they were last season.

So in an extremely contrived but still possible situation we could be bottom of the league this season but still X amount of points up on comparable opponents from last season. It's nonsensical.

Simply comparing our points tally from this season to last season gives a much more balanced and realistic overview of how we're performing.
Click to expand...

Just check back after game 46 :rolleyes:

We'll enjoy in the meantime
 
PeterNdlovu081 said:
I disagree.

An opponent could be considerably better or worse than they were last season.

So in an extremely contrived but still possible situation we could be bottom of the league this season but still X amount of points up on comparable opponents from last season. It's nonsensical.

Simply comparing our points tally from this season to last season gives a much more balanced and realistic overview of how we're performing.
Click to expand...
You are totally right on some points but probably wrong on others

Works Christmas do tonight. I might donate this with you on the way home :-)
 

PeterNdlovu081 said:
I disagree.

An opponent could be considerably better or worse than they were last season.

So in an extremely contrived but still possible situation we could be bottom of the league this season but still X amount of points up on comparable opponents from last season. It's nonsensical.

Simply comparing our points tally from this season to last season gives a much more balanced and realistic overview of how we're performing.
Click to expand...

Yes, some opponents will get a bit better and some will get a bit worse, but on average playing a team who did well last season is still likely to be a tougher fixture than playing a team which poorly last season.

I don't have the time (OK, the enthusiasm) to work it out, but I suspect there's a fairly good correlation between points gained in the same fixtures from season to season. Therefore, if we're generally doing a bit better than we did in the same fixtures last year (or a bit worse), that's of relevance.

As with almost any statistic it's possible to come up with a theoretical set of circumstances in which the statistic could be misleading, but that doesn't mean it's invalid as a comparison.
 
grafikhaus said:
Go on then...

View attachment 47193

View attachment 47194
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Presumably the projection at this point last season was for the same 76 points total. If comparing the two, we don’t this season has the season-changing weakening that was the Coutts injury and Brooks injury, so you would hope that if we don’t suffer anything similar we should improve on last year’s second half points tally – particularly if we actually get the recruitment right this January (which, to my surprise, Wilder seems quite confident on).
 
PeterNdlovu081 said:
Looks like a slow decline into mid table was bang on the money.
Click to expand...

Or more like if Billy doesn't score, we're fucked.

Yesterday kept up his phenomenal record:

41st consecutive game where Billy has scored and we've not lost (starting at home to Rochdale on August 13, 2016). Unfortunately his other record (21st consecutive - until yesterday - game where Billy had scored and we won the game, starting at home to Bolton on Feb. 25th 2017) ended yesterday. :(

Enjoy it, young 'uns. History in the making.

LoughboroBlade said:
Presumably the projection at this point last season was for the same 76 points total. If comparing the two, we don’t this season has the season-changing weakening that was the Coutts injury and Brooks injury, so you would hope that if we don’t suffer anything similar we should improve on last year’s second half points tally – particularly if we actually get the recruitment right this January (which, to my surprise, Wilder seems quite confident on).
Click to expand...

Yup, same points total after 23 games (76 pts.)

Coutts was injured in game 17 (Burton away). I wish I shared your optimism. ;)
 
WorkingtonBlade said:
Yes, some opponents will get a bit better and some will get a bit worse, but on average playing a team who did well last season is still likely to be a tougher fixture than playing a team which poorly last season.

I don't have the time (OK, the enthusiasm) to work it out, but I suspect there's a fairly good correlation between points gained in the same fixtures from season to season. Therefore, if we're generally doing a bit better than we did in the same fixtures last year (or a bit worse), that's of relevance.

As with almost any statistic it's possible to come up with a theoretical set of circumstances in which the statistic could be misleading, but that doesn't mean it's invalid as a comparison.
Click to expand...
I think you have summed up the point of an alternative view of comparison very well, better than I could have described it. Thank you.

This weekend sums it up quite well, the corresponding fixture by date last year was a 2-2 draw at Villa. Almost all fans would have seen that as a point won at a play off rival, whereas this year we gained a point at Ipswich, which was disappointing just as it was in the run in last year. A game that was amongst the average results that halted our play off push.

Similarly, our 6th game this year was a 4-1 win over Villa at home (versus a 1-0 home defeat last year) Our 6th game last season was a win at the awful Sunderland, where anything other than 3 points was points dropped.

I'm not saying it's a better method of comparison, but it's a different perspective on a message board that has room for many views, even for miserable fuckers like PeterNdlovu081 :)
 

If we lost match 25 last year, as indicated by the blue line, how did we climb to 4th from 6th (as indicated by the positional graph???
 
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