Compared with last season...

[grafikhaus]

In second place, 'The Gap' is still six points but...



Even though we've lost, we've gone top in the 'form guide' based on the last six league games:



...which proves that nobody is 'taking the league by storm' so far. Leeds and West Brom both lost today, making our loss at Derby even more of a pisser.

 

[grafikhaus]

I've always seen Game 17 as a good indicator of how this season will pan out. That was the point where we lost Coutts at Burton last year and our season went from 2.18 points per game to 1.14 p.p.g. for the remainder of the season. If we could be 'there or thereabouts' by Game 17 this season, we'll be OK. We've now got 26 points and must aim for as near to 36 as we had last season. Game 17 was a pivotal game last year. This year, Game 17 is v. the pigs...

 

[Houston_Blade]

I've always seen Game 17 as a good indicator of how this season will pan out. That was the point where we lost Coutts at Burton last year and our season went from 2.18 points per game to 1.14 p.p.g. for the remainder of the season. If we could be 'there or thereabouts' by Game 17 this season, we'll be OK. We've now got 26 points and must aim for as near to 36 as we had last season. Game 17 was a pivotal game last year. This year, Game 17 is v. the pigs...

View attachment 45373

Thanks for doing this.

Being pedantic surely where we are at game 17 is irrelevant as we've already shown that we can take a promising position in game 17 and end up finishing mid-table. I'd say if we continue until around game 25 projecting that we'll get around 75/80 points come the end of the season then we'll be in a decent place. If it's higher than that then it gives us more of a margin for error.

I know it's not a popular opinion with some on here but I still await the collapse that we'll have at some point. League one was different as we were that much better than the majority of teams both performance wise and on paper. We don't have that luxury in the Championship so need to maintain the 2 points per game mentality for as long as we possibly can.

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

grafikhaus
Thanks as ever for doing your stuff mate but what's the projected based on please?
We've been on a lower points total than last year since game 6 but projected to end up with 16 points more.
Is it down to last year's Cooouuuts effect?

 

[Balham]

grafikhaus
Thanks as ever for doing your stuff mate but what's the projected based on please?
We've been on a lower points total than last year since game 6 but projected to end up with 16 points more.
Is it down to last year's Cooouuuts effect?

As Grafikhaus says, last season we averaged 2.12 points per game from games 1-17 (36 points from 17 games). This season, we're averaging 1.88 ppg but extrapolating that over a whole season (46*1.88) gives 85.4 points. Therefore we're behind last season (30 points after 14 games in 17/18, 26 in 18/19) but if we continue on our current trajectory we'll finish well ahead.

To put last season's first 17 games in context: had we continued that points per game through the whole season we'd have finished on 97 points.

 

[west_yorks_blade]

So Wilder out, or do we give him a couple more games to prove himself?

 

[Maidenhead]

As Grafikhaus says, last season we averaged 2.12 points per game from games 1-17 (36 points from 17 games). This season, we're averaging 1.88 ppg but extrapolating that over a whole season (46*1.88) gives 85.4 points. Therefore we're behind last season (30 points after 14 games in 17/18, 26 in 18/19) but if we continue on our current trajectory we'll finish well ahead.

To put last season's first 17 games in context: had we continued that points per game through the whole season we'd have finished on 97 points.

I'm with Wilder.

Let's get to 52 points and then I might start looking upwards.

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

As Grafikhaus says, last season we averaged 2.12 points per game from games 1-17 (36 points from 17 games). This season, we're averaging 1.88 ppg but extrapolating that over a whole season (46*1.88) gives 85.4 points. Therefore we're behind last season (30 points after 14 games in 17/18, 26 in 18/19) but if we continue on our current trajectory we'll finish well ahead.

To put last season's first 17 games in context: had we continued that points per game through the whole season we'd have finished on 97 points.

Cheers BB, beautifully explained

 

[bromtom]

This league is so open at the moment though that all comparisons are pretty much pointless.

Points off top would maybe be interesting going forward.

 

[grafikhaus]

Cheers BB, beautifully explained

Well, I did try...

After the Burton away game last season, we were 'on course' for 97 points, which would have seen as as Champions by three points.

 

[grafikhaus]

Top of the table again (and I think we will be after this evening's Leeds v Forest game)



Just the ten points, then.

 

[grafikhaus]

Top of the table again (and I think we will be after this evening's Leeds v Forest game)

Leeds 0 Forest 1 (HT)

 

[blade67]

Of the 11 games played so far 9 are directly comparable. Last season our results in the 9 fixtures were
2017/18 = W2 D1 L6

Record this year against those same teams is
2018/19 = W6 D1 L2

there have now been 11 comparable games

17/18 - W3 D2 L6

18/19 - W7 D1 L3

We got 2 point from our next 3 comparable fixtures last year.

 

[JayGreen17]

It took us another 10 games last season to hit 41 points so anything better than that will be bonus.

 

[grafikhaus]

Won't get any likes as we've lost, but we've hit a blip. As I've said elsewhere, we need to be getting point(s) at teams like Forest, villa, West Brom etc.



We've begun to falter but Wednesday have flatlined. Absolutely no excuses next Friday, no 'you can't predict derbies' blah, blah. Wednesday and their manager are fucking shocking.

 

[bromtom]

Won't get any likes as we've lost, but we've hit a blip. As I've said elsewhere, we need to be getting point(s) at teams like Forest, villa, West Brom etc.

View attachment 45614

We've begun to falter but Wednesday have flatlined. Absolutely no excuses next Friday, no 'you can't predict derbies' blah, blah. Wednesday and their manager are fucking shocking.

View attachment 45615

With this season being so tight though, despite having less points, we're closer to the top than this time last season 1pt Vs 2pt last season.

Key is getting up, dusting ourselves down and getting points asap after a loss.

 

[BladeInBC]

Won't get any likes as we've lost, ...

Gave you a like.

 

[grafikhaus]

Reasons to be cheerful? We play some fabulous stuff and are a level above last season.

Those two dropped points keep Jos in a job.

Oh, and...

 

[blade67]

13 comparable games versus last season now. Next up Brentford and Leeds ( 4 points last year)

17/18 - W3 D3 L7 = 12 points

18/19 - W7 D2 L4 = 23 points

 

[Silent Blade]

13 comparable games versus last season now. Next up Brentford and Leeds ( 4 points last year)

17/18 - W3 D3 L7 = 12 points

18/19 - W7 D2 L4 = 23 points

Last season we got 19 points out of 36 against teams who arent in this division this season.
So far this season we got 7 points out of 12 against teams who werent in this division this season. So we are slightly ahead this season.

 

[beatific blade]

View attachment 45851

Reasons to be cheerful? We play some fabulous stuff and are a level above last season.

Those two dropped points keep Jos in a job.

Oh, and...

View attachment 45852

So by this stage last season we had 6 more points than we do this season?

Just goes to show how competitive the league is this year. We need to maintain a level of consistency over the next 10 weeks that we failed to last year.

I can see us being right in the play-off contention at the end of the season and right now I think we could finish anywhere between 4th and 8th.

 

[bornablade]

I can see us finishing anywhere between top and first.

 

[grafikhaus]

We're becalmed but last season we were on a similarly-poor run.





Could be worse...

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

That league position graph is frighteningly similar to last year.

 

[bromtom]

We're 5 points off top, same as last year, but we're 2 places lower, and we have no breathing space below us.

Close league. Wish it'd open up in our favour a bit, we've had the chances.

 

[grafikhaus]

That's better!





(No league position as there's 6 games in the Championship tomorrow).

 

[blade67]

14 comparable games versus last season.

17/18 - W3 D4 L7 = 13 points

18/19 - W8 D2 L4 = 26 points

 

[blade67]

14 comparable games versus last season.

17/18 - W3 D4 L7 = 13 points

18/19 - W8 D2 L4 = 26 points

the other 5 games look like this based on comparable positions, so a 5 point deficit
Swansea - Wolves - difference @ - 3
Stoke - Cardiff difference @ 0
West Brom - Fulham
Wigan - Barnsley difference @ 0
Blackburn - Burton - difference @ 0
Rotherham - Sunderland difference @ - 2

Overall we are 8 points up on last season.
We took 7 points from the next 4 last year

 

[grafikhaus]

One step forward, one-and-a-half back



A pattern is emerging...



Ah well...

 

[blade67]

15 comparable games versus last season.

17/18 - W4 D4 L7 = 16 points

18/19 - W8 D2 L5 = 26 points