Blades v Boro - the run in

[Champagneblade]

I thought it might be interesting to see how the eventual points total would turn out o
If results against the same opposition were replicated for the rest of the season.

Not suggesting this will happen but should give some food for thought as to what each team was capable of when they last met that same opposition.

Here's how it would look.

Current points:
United - 61 from 32
Boro - 57 from 33

Boro:
WBA(a) 1
Reading (h) 0
Swansea (a) 3
Stoke (h) 1
Preston (h) 0
Huddersfield (a) 1
Burnley (h) 0
Bristol (a) 1
Norwich (h) 3
Hull (h) 3
Luton (a) 3
Rotherham (a) 1
Coventry (h) 0
Summary - W4 D5 L4 Pts 17
Total - 74

United:
Watford (h) 0
Blackburn (a) 3
Reading (a) 3
Luton (h) 1
Sunderland (a) 3
West Brom (h) 3
Norwich (a) 1
Wigan (h) 3
Burnley (a) 3
Cardiff (h) 3
Bristol C (h) 3
Huddersfield (h) 3
Preston (h) 3
Birmingham (a) 1
Summary - W10 D3 L1 Pts 33
Total - 94

Just wanted to add a different context. There would need to be a 20 point gain by one or loss by the other on the current season results or loss of 10 by one and gain of 10 by the other etc. If we can close to replicate then they are out of it. Maximum they can get anyway would be 96 points, winning them all, and us replicating the earlier results gets us to 94 already.

So when I hear that someone has a harder set of fixtures than the other it might be worth remembering that Boro took 17 points from the same teams this very same season whilst United got almost twice as many against the opposition we will face.

This wasn't meant to be a positive or negative thread more a factual starter point to reference how we go during the run in. When we look at the thread comparing last seasons results we are not doing worse in many instances. By the same token, we would need a complete reversal of fortune against teams we have shown ourselves to be better than and likewise, so will Boro.

This picture can change very quickly. Another couple of bad results and they will be toe to toe. But if they lose away to West Brom and we beat Watford and win the game in hand, then the point lead will be 10 once more with little more than 10 or 11 to go which would surely feel insurmountable once more. This could well be the closest they get to us.

 

[Charlieblade]

I suspect the generosity of Blades predictions marks you out as a supporter. I think it could be much closer.
The unpredictability of football is the thing that will save us, but only just IMHO.

I am 68 years old and have followed the club for too long to be enchanted by your optimism.
Nothing critical intended, I'm an optimist too.

 

[Blade56]

I thought it might be interesting to see how the eventual points total would turn out o
If results against the same opposition were replicated for the rest of the season.

Not suggesting this will happen but should give some food for thought as to what each team was capable of when they last met that same opposition.

Here's how it would look.

Current points:
United - 61 from 32
Boro - 57 from 33

Boro:
WBA(a) 1
Reading (h) 0
Swansea (a) 3
Stoke (h) 1
Preston (h) 0
Huddersfield (a) 1
Burnley (h) 0
Bristol (a) 1
Norwich (h) 3
Hull (h) 3
Luton (a) 3
Rotherham (a) 1
Coventry (h) 0
Summary - W4 D5 L4 Pts 17
Total - 74

United:
Watford (h) 0
Blackburn (a) 3
Reading (a) 3
Luton (h) 1
Sunderland (a) 3
West Brom (h) 3
Norwich (a) 1
Wigan (h) 3
Burnley (a) 3
Cardiff (h) 3
Bristol C (h) 3
Huddersfield (h) 3
Preston (h) 3
Birmingham (a) 1
Summary - W10 D3 L1 Pts 33
Total - 94

Just wanted to add a different context. There would need to be a 20 point gain by one or loss by the other on the current season results or loss of 10 by one and gain of 10 by the other etc. If we can close to replicate then they are out of it. Maximum they can get anyway would be 96 points, winning them all, and us replicating the earlier results gets us to 94 already.

So when I hear that someone has a harder set of fixtures than the other it might be worth remembering that Boro took 17 points from the same teams this very same season whilst United got almost twice as many against the opposition we will face.

This wasn't meant to be a positive or negative thread more a factual starter point to reference how we go during the run in. When we look at the thread comparing last seasons results we are not doing worse in many instances. By the same token, we would need a complete reversal of fortune against teams we have shown ourselves to be better than and likewise, so will Boro.

This picture can change very quickly. Another couple of bad results and they will be toe to toe. But if they lose away to West Brom and we beat Watford and win the game in hand, then the point lead will be 10 once more with little more than 10 or 11 to go which would surely feel insurmountable once more. This could well be the closest they get to us.

The one variable you haven’t considered is we are playing like they played first half of season and they are playing like we played, if you swapped the form around the result would be
United 78
Boro 90
And I think I’ll be closer than Yooouuuuu!

 

[Champagneblade]

Just to be clear, these are not my predictions.

This is just laying out how United and Boro performed in the earlier corresponding fixtures and to somewhat bust the myth that we haves a hard run in. We took 33 points from a possible 42 in matches already played against these teams.

Of course we are not playing fluently right now. Boro are doing well. But we need to take each game as it comes and games we have already won are a recent indicator that we are at least capable of replicating such results. They are also an indication that teams have found a way to beat Boro. It’s not as if they changed the XI entirely. The same players also retain certain weaknesses even if they hide it better right now under Carrick.

They play 4-2-3-1, in complete hindsight why didn’t we just drop Ndiaye back deeper when winning? You could outnumber the 2 midfielders 3 to 2 and deprive them of settling in the ball.

 

[CarlMcBlade]

I thought it might be interesting to see how the eventual points total would turn out o
If results against the same opposition were replicated for the rest of the season.

Not suggesting this will happen but should give some food for thought as to what each team was capable of when they last met that same opposition.

Here's how it would look.

Current points:
United - 61 from 32
Boro - 57 from 33

Boro:
WBA(a) 1
Reading (h) 0
Swansea (a) 3
Stoke (h) 1
Preston (h) 0
Huddersfield (a) 1
Burnley (h) 0
Bristol (a) 1
Norwich (h) 3
Hull (h) 3
Luton (a) 3
Rotherham (a) 1
Coventry (h) 0
Summary - W4 D5 L4 Pts 17
Total - 74

United:
Watford (h) 0
Blackburn (a) 3
Reading (a) 3
Luton (h) 1
Sunderland (a) 3
West Brom (h) 3
Norwich (a) 1
Wigan (h) 3
Burnley (a) 3
Cardiff (h) 3
Bristol C (h) 3
Huddersfield (h) 3
Preston (h) 3
Birmingham (a) 1
Summary - W10 D3 L1 Pts 33
Total - 94

Just wanted to add a different context. There would need to be a 20 point gain by one or loss by the other on the current season results or loss of 10 by one and gain of 10 by the other etc. If we can close to replicate then they are out of it. Maximum they can get anyway would be 96 points, winning them all, and us replicating the earlier results gets us to 94 already.

So when I hear that someone has a harder set of fixtures than the other it might be worth remembering that Boro took 17 points from the same teams this very same season whilst United got almost twice as many against the opposition we will face.

This wasn't meant to be a positive or negative thread more a factual starter point to reference how we go during the run in. When we look at the thread comparing last seasons results we are not doing worse in many instances. By the same token, we would need a complete reversal of fortune against teams we have shown ourselves to be better than and likewise, so will Boro.

This picture can change very quickly. Another couple of bad results and they will be toe to toe. But if they lose away to West Brom and we beat Watford and win the game in hand, then the point lead will be 10 once more with little more than 10 or 11 to go which would surely feel insurmountable once more. This could well be the closest they get to us.

Some of those 0’s in the Boro column look like wishful thinking to me.

 

[3Cheers4Ramirez]

14 games for us:
7 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats
25 points total
1.78 points per game

13 games for Boro:
9 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats
29 points total
2.23 points per game

Seems pretty bang on doesn't it?

And that puts us on.......... 86 points each

In which case they'll beat us on goal difference

And Hecky will be left to consider whether choosing to win the game at the Riverside may have been preferable

 

[BigBed]

I still think boro pass us in the next 5 games.

 

[bxb]

I thought it might be interesting to see how the eventual points total would turn out o
If results against the same opposition were replicated for the rest of the season.

Not suggesting this will happen but should give some food for thought as to what each team was capable of when they last met that same opposition.

Here's how it would look.

Current points:
United - 61 from 32
Boro - 57 from 33

Boro:
WBA(a) 1
Reading (h) 0
Swansea (a) 3
Stoke (h) 1
Preston (h) 0
Huddersfield (a) 1
Burnley (h) 0
Bristol (a) 1
Norwich (h) 3
Hull (h) 3
Luton (a) 3
Rotherham (a) 1
Coventry (h) 0
Summary - W4 D5 L4 Pts 17
Total - 74

United:
Watford (h) 0
Blackburn (a) 3
Reading (a) 3
Luton (h) 1
Sunderland (a) 3
West Brom (h) 3
Norwich (a) 1
Wigan (h) 3
Burnley (a) 3
Cardiff (h) 3
Bristol C (h) 3
Huddersfield (h) 3
Preston (h) 3
Birmingham (a) 1
Summary - W10 D3 L1 Pts 33
Total - 94

Just wanted to add a different context. There would need to be a 20 point gain by one or loss by the other on the current season results or loss of 10 by one and gain of 10 by the other etc. If we can close to replicate then they are out of it. Maximum they can get anyway would be 96 points, winning them all, and us replicating the earlier results gets us to 94 already.

So when I hear that someone has a harder set of fixtures than the other it might be worth remembering that Boro took 17 points from the same teams this very same season whilst United got almost twice as many against the opposition we will face.

This wasn't meant to be a positive or negative thread more a factual starter point to reference how we go during the run in. When we look at the thread comparing last seasons results we are not doing worse in many instances. By the same token, we would need a complete reversal of fortune against teams we have shown ourselves to be better than and likewise, so will Boro.

This picture can change very quickly. Another couple of bad results and they will be toe to toe. But if they lose away to West Brom and we beat Watford and win the game in hand, then the point lead will be 10 once more with little more than 10 or 11 to go which would surely feel insurmountable once more. This could well be the closest they get to us.

I can't be bothered to try and predict all those results but based on current form and what I saw in the last 2 games do I think Boro will overhaul us between now and the end of the season?.. absolutely. Happy to be proved wrong of course.

 

[bakeblade]

I can't be bothered to try and predict all those results but based on current form and what I saw in the last 2 games do I think Boro will overhaul us between now and the end of the season?.. absolutely. Happy to be proved wrong of course.

Unless Boro have a major injury crisis, they'll confortably pass us over the next 6 games.
It might suit us to be chasers then, rather than trying to protect our lead.
For me it's Burnley and Boro autos and Watford via the playoffs

 

[Blade58]

Nice op but what I will add is the word “momentum”

We seem to have lost it down the back of the sofa. Boro have gained it over previous games

We look look like we don’t know where the next win is going to come from. Boro look like defeat is out of the question

As much as we all wish to turn things into a positive, I really am struggling to see Blades auto promotion.

Prove me wrong Blades. Fkin hammer Watford and I might see things differently?

 

[Foody]

I know the current form is enough to worry us, but we are still the ones with: more points, a better GD and a game in hand. We are still very much in the driving seat.

Plus we have proven under Hecky that we are a promotion standard team. We've proven that we can deliver consistent results for over a season now. Boro have a manager that is still pretty new into role and has not shown how they respond if and when they have a slip.

We need Ndaiye and Berge to pick up their form, Norwood to return to his best (after 2 or 3 sub par performances) and the likes of Egan to regain some composure. All of which comes with a bit of confidence.

We are now in a bit more of a promotion fight, but one where we're up on points.

 

[Selly]

It sounds glib but one win will settle a lot of nerves.

Beat Watford (not easy admittedly) and I'm sure we will all feel a lot better. Irrespective of the result of the WBA -Boro game that plays at the same time (which is as hard a game given WBA recent form)

 

[Broomhall Blade]

It sounds glib but one win will settle a lot of nerves.

Beat Watford (not easy admittedly) and I'm sure we will all feel a lot better. Irrespective of the result of the WBA -Boro game that plays at the same time (which is as hard a game given WBA recent form)

I think you need too check your facts WBA recent form is P5 W1 D1 L3.

 

[Selly]

I think you need too check your facts WBA recent form is P5 W1 D1 L3.

Ah. Drat.

They were in good form a bit back...

 

[Broomhall Blade]

Ah. Drat.

They were in good form a bit back...

They could improve that if they beat Watford tomorrow.

 

[Bell4]

I thought it might be interesting to see how the eventual points total would turn out o
If results against the same opposition were replicated for the rest of the season.

Not suggesting this will happen but should give some food for thought as to what each team was capable of when they last met that same opposition.

Here's how it would look.

Current points:
United - 61 from 32
Boro - 57 from 33

Boro:
WBA(a) 1
Reading (h) 0
Swansea (a) 3
Stoke (h) 1
Preston (h) 0
Huddersfield (a) 1
Burnley (h) 0
Bristol (a) 1
Norwich (h) 3
Hull (h) 3
Luton (a) 3
Rotherham (a) 1
Coventry (h) 0
Summary - W4 D5 L4 Pts 17
Total - 74

United:
Watford (h) 0
Blackburn (a) 3
Reading (a) 3
Luton (h) 1
Sunderland (a) 3
West Brom (h) 3
Norwich (a) 1
Wigan (h) 3
Burnley (a) 3
Cardiff (h) 3
Bristol C (h) 3
Huddersfield (h) 3
Preston (h) 3
Birmingham (a) 1
Summary - W10 D3 L1 Pts 33
Total - 94

Just wanted to add a different context. There would need to be a 20 point gain by one or loss by the other on the current season results or loss of 10 by one and gain of 10 by the other etc. If we can close to replicate then they are out of it. Maximum they can get anyway would be 96 points, winning them all, and us replicating the earlier results gets us to 94 already.

So when I hear that someone has a harder set of fixtures than the other it might be worth remembering that Boro took 17 points from the same teams this very same season whilst United got almost twice as many against the opposition we will face.

This wasn't meant to be a positive or negative thread more a factual starter point to reference how we go during the run in. When we look at the thread comparing last seasons results we are not doing worse in many instances. By the same token, we would need a complete reversal of fortune against teams we have shown ourselves to be better than and likewise, so will Boro.

This picture can change very quickly. Another couple of bad results and they will be toe to toe. But if they lose away to West Brom and we beat Watford and win the game in hand, then the point lead will be 10 once more with little more than 10 or 11 to go which would surely feel insurmountable once more. This could well be the closest they get to us.

Thanks C

Good post

I’ll try to make it simpler

Boro are very much on the up and we are very much the opposite

Boro have strengthened we have gone backwards

Their manager has played at the very highest level and has a killer instinct - ours is a lovely cool steady bloke .

They are 4 points behind

In 3 weeks they will be in front .

They will go up

 

[ChipButtyBlade]

I'm sure i started a thread similar to this the other day called The Run In Bingo.

https://www.s24su.com/forum/threads/the-run-in-bingo.94200/#post-4370396

 

[Bladey_blade]

Ah. Drat.

They were in good form a bit back...

Still not one of the trips you look forward to mind

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Middlesbrough:
34. WBA(a) - DRAW - (58)
35. Reading (h) - WIN - (61)
36. Swansea (a) - WIN - (64)
37. Stoke (h) - WIN - (67)
38. Preston (h) - 3 WIN - (70)
39. Huddersfield (a) - WIN - (73)
40. Burnley (h) - DRAW - (74)
41. Bristol (a) - DRAW - (75)
42. Norwich (h) - DRAW - (76)
43. Hull (h) - WIN - (79)
44. Luton (a) - LOSS - (79)
45. Rotherham (a) - DRAW - (80)
46. Coventry (h) - WIN - (83)

W7, D5, L1 _ points 26
Total - 83

Sheffield United:
33. Watford (h) DRAW - (62)
34. Blackburn (a) - LOSS - (62)
35. Reading (a) DRAW - (63)
36. Luton (h) - WIN - (66)
37. Sunderland (a) - DRAW - (67)
38. West Brom (h) - WIN - (70)
39. Norwich (a) - LOSS - (70)
40. Wigan (h) - WIN - (73)
41. Burnley (a) - LOSS - (73)
42. Cardiff (h) - WIN - (76)
43. Bristol C (h) - WIN - (79)
44. Huddersfield (a) - LOSS - (79)
45. Preston (h) - WIN - (82)
46. Birmingham (a) - DRAW - (83)

W6, D4, L4 _ points 22
Total - 83

Think the gap will be gone within the next 3/4 games.
We're in a bit of a spiral with a tough run of games, whilst they're riding the wave and have easier opposition that they'll continue to dispatch routinely.

Then think we'll recover and they'll be due a dip of some sort eventually and it will finish very close.

 

[Argentinemanager]

For all you who think boro will get 2nd, get on william hill 11/4 , were 3/10 to get 2nd , bookies tend not to be sentimental , have faith in us its a minor blip normal service will soon resume

 

[John Street West Terrace]

A lot of those sides bottom end that teams put down for a nailed on 3 points will be fighting like hell to stay up & spring some shock results along the way .. Reading winning at The Lane last season .. Wigan winning at Elland Rd our last promotion season .. still a hell of a lot of twists and turns to come

 

[Snowflake]

Unless Boro have a major injury crisis, they'll confortably pass us over the next 6 games.
It might suit us to be chasers then, rather than trying to protect our lead.
For me it's Burnley and Boro autos and Watford via the playoffs

We are 4 points clear of third place with a game in hand. Who would have thought that at the beginning of the season ?
We have just had our last “blip” so why the negativity ?

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Not the biggest fan of this podcast but thought it worth a share as it's on topic.

 

[Champagneblade]

Some of those 0’s in the Boro column look like wishful thinking to me.

They are the points they got when they played them in the reverse fixture.

They aren't predictions.

 

[Champagneblade]

Not the biggest fan of this podcast but thought it worth a share as it's on topic.

I think we need to loan yourself to their forum for the next few months.

They'll be inundated with injuries, their form will drop off and their main rivals will go on an unbelievable winning streak

 

[ancientblade]

i really think a change of system is needed lets try 4231 like boro play either mcburnie or jebbison as the lone striker berge nidaye and mcatee as the 3 and norwood and doyle or coulibally as the 2 sitters bogle/lowe as the full backs anel and egan as centre backs

 

[bakeblade]

Middlesbrough:
34. WBA(a) - DRAW - (58)
35. Reading (h) - WIN - (61)
36. Swansea (a) - WIN - (64)
37. Stoke (h) - WIN - (67)
38. Preston (h) - 3 WIN - (70)
39. Huddersfield (a) - WIN - (73)
40. Burnley (h) - DRAW - (74)
41. Bristol (a) - DRAW - (75)
42. Norwich (h) - DRAW - (76)
43. Hull (h) - WIN - (79)
44. Luton (a) - LOSS - (79)
45. Rotherham (a) - DRAW - (80)
46. Coventry (h) - WIN - (83)

W7, D5, L1 _ points 26
Total - 83

Sheffield United:
33. Watford (h) DRAW - (62)
34. Blackburn (a) - LOSS - (62)
35. Reading (a) DRAW - (63)
36. Luton (h) - WIN - (66)
37. Sunderland (a) - DRAW - (67)
38. West Brom (h) - WIN - (70)
39. Norwich (a) - LOSS - (70)
40. Wigan (h) - WIN - (73)
41. Burnley (a) - LOSS - (73)
42. Cardiff (h) - WIN - (76)
43. Bristol C (h) - WIN - (79)
44. Huddersfield (a) - LOSS - (79)
45. Preston (h) - WIN - (82)
46. Birmingham (a) - DRAW - (83)

W6, D4, L4 _ points 22
Total - 83

Think the gap will be gone within the next 3/4 games.
We're in a bit of a spiral with a tough run of games, whilst they're riding the wave and have easier opposition that they'll continue to dispatch routinely.

Then think we'll recover and they'll be due a dip of some sort eventually and it will finish very close.

I think injuries will play a big part in the run in, if Boro stay relatively injury free they'll go up.
If Akpom and/or Archer get crocked, it will massively affect them.

 

[JPBrods]

Bit of unscientific spaffing around with a predictor sees my calculations as thus on game 45
United: P45, W26, D10, L9, 88pts, +36 GD
Boro: P45, W26, D8, L11, 86pts +27 GD
Would you take going into the final game two ahead and with better GD? We've got Birmingham away on the final day and they've got Coventry at home.

 

[Bladesince59]

Recall Coventry fucked us up once before. (20 years ago?)

 

[blade too long]

Think the gap will be gone within the next 3/4 games.
We're in a bit of a spiral

weve lost 2 very close games in which we had more shots and possession than our opponents
results could have both been draws and some would have seen nothing but doom and gloom

boros having a good spell of results but are capable of being as brittle as us

think in both games we got no help from the officials who allowed us to get bullied and pushed and man handled