Are We in a Genuine Relegation Battle?

[KMC-1889]

I'd be interested in the reaction to Wilder too, if that panned out. Or would we reserve vilifification only for those none Blades/ Sheffield types in the management world?

I’m mentally preparing myself for the ‘wilder’s the best person to get us out of league one’ chat we’ll be having in about 5 months.

 

[JPBrods]

To be on -12 GD after six games is actually insane, and head-to-head with the absolute disaster-class that was the start to the 20/21 season we had registered a point by this stage, and notched three goals with a completely undercooked PL attack and been relatively solid at the back.

Compared with 23/24 we'd scored five premier league goals by now.

I think it is sensible to view the season in phases and right now you can't say anything other than yes, we need to get our shit together or we are going down because it is worse than the starts we displayed in these disastrous campaigns.

 

[KMC-1889]

To be on -12 GD after six games is actually insane, and head-to-head with the absolute disaster-class that was the start to the 20/21 season we had registered a point by this stage, and notched three goals with a completely undercooked PL attack and been relatively solid at the back.

Compared with 23/24 we'd scored five premier league goals by now.

I think it is sensible to view the season in phases and right now you can't say anything other than yes, we need to get our shit together or we are going down because it is worse than the starts we displayed in these disastrous campaigns.

It’s Wednesday levels of delusion to look at this season as anything other a relegation fight. All the warnings are right there in your post.

Said it loads but Wilder has never been able to turn a team around. Couldn’t do it in 20/21 or 23/24, couldn’t do it at Boro and couldn’t do it at Watford. Once a team starts to nose dive he doesn’t have any answers.

 

[HighfieldBlade]

 

[SUFC Guy]

Far too early to say. Would you say that Watford, Southampton and Ipswich will go down? Doubt it and we're only 5/6 points behind them. We need to starting picking points up ASAP (obvs) Oxford will most likely be well up for the game and we'll do well to get something from that.

Wilder will sort this I'm sure, where as Selles would'nt have.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Until we aren't we are yes

 

[GymClassHero]

What was blatantly obvious on Saturday, was that the transfer window has been nothing short of disastrous.Losing 2 top end Championship players, and other proven championship reliability, and replacing them with, League 1 standard, (Tanganga excepted) or young lads who are a million miles off the first team, was utterly ridiculous.
Yes, Selles was out of his depth but so are a lot of the players we have left.Make no mistake we’re in a relegation battle, and one we could easily end up losing, even before we get to January’s transfer window.

It's basically what happened to Hecky when we got promoted all over again.

Sold out two best players and replaced them with players not fit to lace their boots.

Although I believe Tanganga will probably be a better player than Anel.

 

[GymClassHero]

What was blatantly obvious on Saturday, was that the transfer window has been nothing short of disastrous.Losing 2 top end Championship players, and other proven championship reliability, and replacing them with, League 1 standard, (Tanganga excepted) or young lads who are a million miles off the first team, was utterly ridiculous.
Yes, Selles was out of his depth but so are a lot of the players we have left.Make no mistake we’re in a relegation battle, and one we could easily end up losing, even before we get to January’s transfer window.

It's basically what happened to Hecky when we got promoted all over again.

Sold out two best players and replaced them with players not fit to kace their boots.

Although I believe Tanganga will probably

Far too early to say. Would you say that Watford, Southampton and Ipswich will go down? Doubt it and we're only 5/6 points behind them. We need to starting picking points up ASAP (obvs) Oxford will most likely be well up for the game and we'll do well to get something from that.

Wilder will sort this I'm sure, where as Selles would'nt have.

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Ipswich and Soton both have 6 more points than us. 6 points is not an easy gap to close, that's two wins while the others just get zero points. I fully expect one of those two to pull away and challenge for promotion, probably Ipswich.

 

[SUFC Guy]

It's basically what happened to Hecky when we got promoted all over again.

Sold out two best players and replaced them with players not fit to kace their boots.

Although I believe Tanganga will probably

Ipswich and Soton both have 6 more points than us. 6 points is not an easy gap to close, that's two wins while the others just get zero points. I fully expect one of those two to pull away and challenge for promotion, probably Ipswich.

Give it another 6 games and we'll definitely know what kind of season we're in for. 6 games is too early, but granted these early signs don't look to good

 

[LBA_Blade]

When you look at the points needed for championship safety it although varied as shown below (points for safety not GD)

2018/19 - 42
2019/20 - 41
2020/21 - 44
2021/22 - 38
2022/23 - 45
2023/24 - 51
2024/25 - 50

The more recent years we will need to get into the 50's for safety rather than the mid 40's. Last season, Bristol City managed to get in the playoffs on 68 points whilst Luton were relegated on 49, which is crazy to think how much of a tight pack it is in there however we need to pick up points and fast. I imagine it will be at least high 40's again to keep championship status. We could be looking at needing at least 16 wins from the remaining 40 games and might still not be safe. Nearly 1/2 of the games left must be won or at least getting something from it.

 

[KMC-1889]

I imagine it will be at least high 40's again to keep championship status. We could be looking at needing at least 16 wins from the remaining 40 games and might still not be safe. Nearly 1/2 of the games left must be won or at least getting something from it.

for context Wilder has won 7 of his last 15 league games.

We’re in a relegation fight.

 

[bruce]

Said it loads but Wilder has never been able to turn a team around. Couldn’t do it in 20/21 or 23/24, couldn’t do it at Boro and couldn’t do it at Watford. Once a team starts to nose dive he doesn’t have any answers.

He did turn it around in 2016-17. We had one point after 4 games. Got thrashed at home by Southend. Ended up with 100 points.

On a much smaller scale, we lost our first 2 matches in the 2018-19 promotion season. It would have been very easy for that season to head south pretty quickly.

Different circumstances this times and a turnaround doesn't look close at the moment, but it's not true to say he's never turned a team around.

 

[mattbianco1]

I think had Wilder been in charge for the first 6 games and we were here, then yeah, we’re in the battle. He wasn’t and can now build confidence and pick up pieces.

Ultimately Wilder has played 1, lost 1.

 

[Badger Blade]

I think unless we can pull three wins out of the next five, we'll soon need to realise what success looks like this season because it sure as hell isn't automatic promotion, play offs or even a top half finish.

Oxford, Southampton and Watford are all coming up and if we fail to at the very least take points off them, we can wave goodbye to any sort of play off flirt because we'll be getting cut adrift.

It's all down to what's between the ears. The pigs and their threadbare squad getting paid in washers and cans of John West are getting the odd result because they're working hard for each other and know that they have nothing to lose. Our lot just don't have the stomach for it and choke when the pressure is on.

Souttar was the best defender we had last season. Anel was a good second fiddle to him but once he had to take more of a lead alongside JLT and we lost our aerial dominance, organisation and intimidation factor, goals started leaking. Souttar was also decent on the ball and could pick a pass. All gone though I'm not hugely sad to see the back of JLT.

Tanganga is the only one of the defenders we've signed who would have walked straight into last season's team. If we'd signed him instead of bloody Cannon, we might well have gone up. Cannon rivalling Brewster as one of the biggest wastes of money we've ever had.

Souza screened the defence, Arblaster was scoring goals from midfield early on, Davies was decent when he played and made a positive contribution. All either left or injured and the players we've signed aren't obvious improvements. Peck has no sort of experienced head next to him and seems to have lost the plot altogether.

Barely seen anything of Ings who is a perennial crock on his way down. We're lacking someone who can hold the ball up and put the thing in the net. Kieffer Moore couldn't trap a bag of cement half the time but can't stop scoring now. I understand the logic of letting him go, the money we were offered and the whole Wembley cock up but we've not signed any sort of proven-ish source of goals up front. Ings has score three goals in the last two years.

The approach and timing of recruitment has been all over the place. I understand the desire to initially move in a direction away from Wilder but the whole execution of it has been a shambles.

 

[Lord Eddard Muir]

7 defeats in a row says yes

8.

 

[bruce]

for context Wilder has won 7 of his last 15 league games.

We’re in a relegation fight.

And we drew 2 and lost 6.
That equals 23 points from 15 games. More than 1.5 points per game, which is nowhere near relegation form.
I would bite your hand off to be offered that sort of form from now till the end of the season.It would get us to 60 points.

 

[Addison]

Play the same formation as Saturday and the slow possession based football and we are going down. I really hope Wilder and Knill are at Shirecliffe now changing formation with Prestridge running the players into the ground to provide some modicum of match fitness. Hopefully CW's post match assertion he had underestimated the scale of the task will effect immediate changes. Don't change and I fear we may be looking for a new manager at Chistmas as there is little prospect of scoring a goal never mind picking up a point with the way we are set up at the moment.

 

[Lord Eddard Muir]

I think the biggest problem is that here we are nearly at the end of September and effectively none of this team has had a preseason, either because they came in too late or all the "work" Selles did with them now needs undoing.

Half of them don't know Wilder yet. The other half don't know if they're coming or going with all the mixed messages and contradictory instructions they've had since August. We have somehow managed to come into this season even less prepared than the last PL season.

I fully expect that at some point we will click and start to look much better, my fear is that we will already be well adrift by the time we do. And for that reason I have voted "undecided"

 

[Panini]

To be on -12 GD after six games is actually insane

4 or our 6 defeats have been 1-0. Five other teams have conceded only 1 goal less than us.

It's unusual, but it's far from insane.

If we were in Middlesbrough's position, I wonder if 66% of fans (the number who believe we're in a relegation fight according to this poll right now) would believe we're title favourites. I highly doubt it.

 

[GlosBlade]

4 or our 6 defeats have been 1-0. Five other teams have conceded only 1 goal less than us.

It's unusual, but it's far from insane.

If we were in Middlesbrough's position, I wonder if 66% of fans (the number who believe we're in a relegation fight according to this poll right now) would believe we're title favourites. I highly doubt it.

It’s not the 12 conceded that’s insane, it’s the 1 goal scored. It’s really hard to see where the next goal is coming from, Campbell out of form ( but not getting much service), Cannon dreadful ( but equally the way we play wouldn’t get him any service either), One still learning his trade, Ings injured. Wilder has an almighty task on his hands.

 

[programmechap]

1984-5 was a pretty poor season. We were in a relegation struggle for all of it bar the first few games. But we avoided relegation. Probably more down to how poor the sides around us were, rather than anything positive from ourselves. But we still avoided it.
1992-3 went down to the last few games (technically we still needed something from the last game). The final table is a bit misleading as to how the season went and how close we were to relegation. There was only 3 points between us in 14th place and Crystal Palace in 20th.We won our last 3 games, but we're still only 3 points clear, which shows how survival was touch and go.

As I recall 84-5, we were finally safe on 4th May when Cardiff lost with our game being called off. That was with 3 games left.

We didn't win any of our last 9 games (D3 L6) yet still stayed up by 7 points. Luckily for us in Cardiff, Notts County and Wolves there were 3 absolutely atrocious teams that season.

 

[SBSP]

100%

Even more so now with the Wilder back in charge picking his favourites.

 

[Panini]

It’s not the 12 conceded that’s insane, it’s the 1 goal scored. It’s really hard to see where the next goal is coming from, Campbell out of form ( but not getting much service), Cannon dreadful ( but equally the way we play wouldn’t get him any service either), One still learning his trade, Ings injured. Wilder has an almighty task on his hands.

Fair enough. I'd still suggest it's a bit of a freak series of results. xG has us scoring 6 and conceding 4, for what it's worth.

It's unsustainable to continue like this.

My overall point is that telling ourselves we're relegation fodder lets everyone off the hook. It says they're not good enough and justifies where we are.

Remember we only scored 63 goals in finishing 3rd last season. The lowest total by any team with 90+ points.

This isn't a new problem and Wilder has to break his shackles off.

 

[tyke1889]

We won't go down, I'm absolutely as certain as I can be of that.

You can all stick it up my arse if we do!

I do hope you're going to fly over here for us all, cos we'll be lining up like you're Bonnie Blue

 

[mattbianco1]

4 or our 6 defeats have been 1-0. Five other teams have conceded only 1 goal less than us.

It's unusual, but it's far from insane.

If we were in Middlesbrough's position, I wonder if 66% of fans (the number who believe we're in a relegation fight according to this poll right now) would believe we're title favourites. I highly doubt it.

Exactly.

We have had a terrible start and sacked the manager responsible for 5 defeats from 5. The confidence in the players is visibly low, but hopefully we can pick that up over the next 3 games taking us into the International break.

To use your Middlesbrough analogy, Ipswich are still the bookies favourite for the title, despite being 10pts behind Middlesbrough.

The six favourites for the title are as follows:

1. Ipswich - 17th (10 points behind 1st)
2. Boro - 1st
3. Coventry - 6th (16 points behind 1st)
4. Birmingham - 8th (16 points behind 1st)
5. Southampton - 19th (10 points behind 1st)
6. West Brom - 7th (10 points behind 1st)

So of the 6 favourites, only 2 are currently in the top 6.

Compared with relegation favourites...

1. Wednesday (2nd bottom)
2. Oxford (5th bottom)
3. Derby (3rd bottom)
4. Portsmouth (12th place)
5. Watford (4th bottom)
6. QPR (9th place)

Only 2 of the 6 favourites to go down are OUTSIDE the bottom 6. United are in a totally false position.

 

[BladeByChoice]

The approach and timing of recruitment has been all over the place. I understand the desire to initially move in a direction away from Wilder but the whole execution of it has been a shambles.

It actually feels like one of the criteria AI had to work with was 'not a Wilder player' now we expect him to come back and hit the ground running with what we have signed.
top 10 at best depending on the JTW and all the fault of the owners.

 

[jimmymuir]

Zetterstrom - young and unproven, one for the future?
Godfrey - Best days look well behind him and dread to think what he's on wage wise.
Bindon - Playing in League One last term, was supposedly excellent at Reading but really struggled so far.
Chong - Signed from a League 1 club. Supposedly has attitude problems and is on course for back to back to back relegations
McGuinness - Also signed from a League 1 club, looks very limited on the ball, but at least he's got some height unlike the rest of the squad
Matos - Playing at the bottom of the Champ table last season. Seems very quick and a good tackler, but lacking technical ability.
Barry - Was in League One last year, has really struggled to adapt to the pace of the Champ given that his loan spell at Hull last season was cut short through injury.
Tanganga - The only positive (recruitment wise this summer), we need to build our defence around him.
Soumare - From the very little action I've seen, he looked decent on the ball. Doubt he gets much of a sniff under Wilder and will be sent back in January.
Ings - Best days are certainly behind him and sadly a crock. If he could keep fit, he would be of importance.
Ogbene - Blighted with injury over the last year or so. Good player on his day, but a lack of game time is a real worry.

If we do go down, or are in a relegation battle then it will be down to recruitment. Serious question, aside from McGuinness, Cooper and maybe Zetterstrom is there anybody in our team who's 6ft+?

 

[Sportbilly /Detroit Blade]

17/2 according to Sky Bet, pigs are 1/14

17/2 to be relegated, and what odds to be promoted?!

 

[Bladesman]

We won't go down, I'm absolutely as certain as I can be of that.

You can all stick it up my arse if we do!

Stick what up your arse now?

 

[Sportbilly /Detroit Blade]

Stick what up your arse now?

Anything you want, a pumpkin if you like!