A few observations from the stats (Soton)

[Coolblade]

A few observations from the stats:

- we lost the xG battle once again (0.85 v 1.61), with shots on target (5 v 8) , possession (48 v 52). That suggests a 1-2 scoreline was pretty much spot on.

- we have lost the xG (generally viewed as the best measure of how a team played) in every single game this season, apart from the first game against Bristol City (when our first half offensive performance was very strong) I.e we still have been the weaker team in all of Wilder’s games despite a feel good factor about his return. Opta have our overall performance as ranking 21st out of 24 for the season to date.

- Tanganga still is a stand out performer. Winning twice as many aerial duels as anyone else (6) as well as most clearances (7) and second most successful tackles.

- His stats this year have been poor, but O’Hare was more involved today with most tackles won, joint most key passes, joint second most successful dribbles, His link up play with Hamer was closer to the level of pre Xmas last season, Hamer with most successful crosses, joint most key passes, joint most shots etc making him the highest statistical performer. Ogbene was involved but (like Barry before) didn’t manage one successful cross and just one successful dribble.

- Peck is an interesting one. Of our outfield players he had the lowest statistical contribution (just one successful tackle, no aerial duels etc) . However his completion rate was highest in the team at 90% and possibly scored a key goal.

- Campbell only touched the ball 17 times but scored a cracking goal, and should have scored another. With joint most shots, he was most involved since Bristol City. Given our lack of firepower, this is a hopeful sign.

How you rank our performance probably depends on your view of Soton. If they are a top 6 team, then this performance was a small step in the right direction. But I fear they weren’t really that good! But hope springs eternal.

 

[nopigfansintown]

Wasn't the penalty part of the XG? If so it doesn't tell you much.

 

[Wards]

Take out the penalty and I'd wager the xG looks similar?

That said I thought they controlled the game well second half and probably just deserved a win.

 

[dc_blade]

If you take the penalty out (although it was a penalty in my opinion) then it was fairly even. We created a couple of good chances and had some dangerous moments but overall we dont put sides under sustained pressure, even at home, and haven’t for a year or more.

 

[Barmyblade]

Southampton have some good players but hadn’t won since early August, looked low on confidence and were there for the taking. Especially after we took the lead.

I’m not convinced the light at the end of the tunnel isn’t an oncoming train.

 

[Chief]

Take out the penalty and I'd wager the xG looks similar?

If you take the penalty out ... then it was fairly even.

But they did get a penalty, and they should score it but didn't. That's sort of the point of the stat isn't it?

In the same way Ross Stewart shouldn't be scoring from 30 yards, but he does.

If they'd scored the pen but not the worldie, as expected(!), they'd have scored 2 goals anyway.

 

[ReeceofBDTBL]

Surely the xG takes into account the penalty as well as Pecks appallingly disallowed equaliser.

Southampton scored from a set piece and then won it with a screamer from outside the box

 

[Champagneblade]

A few observations from the stats:

- we lost the xG battle once again (0.85 v 1.61), with shots on target (5 v 8) , possession (48 v 52). That suggests a 1-2 scoreline was pretty much spot on.

- we have lost the xG (generally viewed as the best measure of how a team played) in every single game this season, apart from the first game against Bristol City (when our first half offensive performance was very strong) I.e we still have been the weaker team in all of Wilder’s games despite a feel good factor about his return. Opta have our overall performance as ranking 21st out of 24 for the season to date.

- Tanganga still is a stand out performer. Winning twice as many aerial duels as anyone else (6) as well as most clearances (7) and second most successful tackles.

- His stats this year have been poor, but O’Hare was more involved today with most tackles won, joint most key passes, joint second most successful dribbles, His link up play with Hamer was closer to the level of pre Xmas last season, Hamer with most successful crosses, joint most key passes, joint most shots etc making him the highest statistical performer. Ogbene was involved but (like Barry before) didn’t manage one successful cross and just one successful dribble.

- Peck is an interesting one. Of our outfield players he had the lowest statistical contribution (just one successful tackle, no aerial duels etc) . However his completion rate was highest in the team at 90% and possibly scored a key goal.

- Campbell only touched the ball 17 times but scored a cracking goal, and should have scored another. With joint most shots, he was most involved since Bristol City. Given our lack of firepower, this is a hopeful sign.

How you rank our performance probably depends on your view of Soton. If they are a top 6 team, then this performance was a small step in the right direction. But I fear they weren’t really that good! But hope springs eternal.

Don’t forget though a soft penalty adds around 0.77 to the xG. It’s a lot closer without that decision.

 

[dc_blade]

But they did get a penalty, and they should score it but didn't. That's sort of the point of the stat isn't it?

In the same way Ross Stewart shouldn't be scoring from 30 yards, but he does.

If they'd scored the pen but not the worldie, as expected(!), they'd have scored 2 goals anyway.

Yeah, it’s a fair point. The penalty was a result of them creating a chance, partly because we defended poorly.

 

[Coolblade]

Just a couple of follow on points:

- the xG Opta gave for the penalty was 0.788, I thought the decision was soft, but with the contact I wasn’t surprised it was given, and as said above, the chance to be 1 on 1 with our keeper was still crested. Also the fact our xG has consistently been low shows this wasn’t an anomaly

- like many stats, context and interpretation are key. One worthy of mention is that we put in more crosses than Soton (16 vs 12) but had cross accuracy of just 18% against their 42%. But who is to blame for this? If Armstrong at just under 5 ft 8” is winning headers against our defender at over 6ft 4” does that show great crossing for them, or bad defending for us? Likewise if you are Ogbene with just Cannon and O’Hare in the box, what realistic chance have you got of them winning the header from your cross?

 

[Nelson1889]

You don't need xG and a team of analyst's to tell you that we create next to fuck all most matches. People with decent eyesight and a basic knowledge of the game could tell you where our short comings are.

3 shots on target at home in 95 minutes of football with 1 shot on target after they equalised is pretty disgraceful.

As others have said they were no world beaters but we still lost. Same as Charlton the other week and barring a decent 15 minute spell the same as Oxford.

 

[Bergen Blade]

- like many stats, context and interpretation are key. One worthy of mention is that we put in more crosses than Soton (16 vs 12) but had cross accuracy of just 18% against their 42%. But who is to blame for this? If Armstrong at just under 5 ft 8” is winning headers against our defender at over 6ft 4” does that show great crossing for them, or bad defending for us? Likewise if you are Ogbene with just Cannon and O’Hare in the box, what realistic chance have you got of them winning the header from your cross?

Agree with you. For crosses to become more effective, it helps to have

• more people in the box
• movement into the box
• height/physicality in the box
• agreed principles on where to aim crosses based on situations
• players reading where crosses realistically are gonna be hit

Some of our crosses shown in the highlights:









All these were comfortably dealt with and didn't produce a finish. Chasing the game we manage to get three players into the box for the last couple of crosses, but there's not much height, strength or other things that trouble their defenders.


One of Southampton's crosses showed they had 4 targets in the box. We had plenty of defenders back, but they managed to get a finish out of it.

 

[ancientblade]

Surely the xG takes into account the penalty as well as Pecks appallingly disallowed equaliser.

Southampton scored from a set piece and then won it with a screamer from outside the box

yes it was harsh but if it had been done on cooper we would have been screaming for a foul

 

[nopigfansintown]

The two best Saints chances came from us (1) switching off from a restart culminating in the horrendous penalty decision. It was a long punt down the middle a Sunday league team would get a bollocking for switching off for.

(2) The header that hit the bar and was scored in the next phase. Again, losing the header was an elementary mistake that was repeated later on. Horrific "defending".

The Stewart goal later on was a good finish from fairly low percentage opportunity. There was another really difficult chance for Stewart from a long range header from a deep cross. Apart from that nothing much. The quick restart and two near post corners were the worry for me. We simply must be better than that. Whilst we're at it we need to improve our own set pieces. A lot. There's a lot of basic mistakes punished in the Championship and we aren't the ones doing the punishing

We have a lot more f other issues that unfortunately aren't fixable short term. Baked in squad imbalances, fitness issues, lack of bench options etc etc