Wizard
Member
- Joined
- Nov 2, 2021
- Messages
- 162
- Reaction score
- 366
After a brief moment of hope following Wilder's return, the disappointment of dropping 5 points from strong positions in the last two games has led me pretty much accept that we're destined for relegation this year.
However, that's not gonna be very fun for the rest of the season so in an attempt to find some optimism going into the new year I wanted to see if there was any feasible route to survival for us.
I'm assuming we'll get nothing from the Man City game so that would leave us on 9 points after 20 games. A pitiful record that suggests hopelessness might be the correct position to take but I'm not interested in being rational.
So what are some positives? We've shown clear improvement under Wilder. Statistically our performances have been much stronger and we've been much more competitive in games. We kept Brentford, Luton and Villa to under 1xG, Liverpool didn't create too much and we did ok against Chelsea first half. There's 3 weeks until the next league game after City so that gives the players some time to rest, reset and refocus and the coaches have some time on the training ground to tidy up a few things. There's also the possibility that we could bring in a player or two in January to strengthen the first eleven and hopefully our injury situation clears up a little.
A quick look at the past few premier league seasons shows generally between 36-40 points will keep you up. Let's keep being optimistic say this is a year when you need 36 points to stay up. That means 27 points from 18 games or 1.5ppg. A drastic improvement but not unachievable. The possible ways to reach that total are 9 wins = 8 wins + 3 draws = 7 wins + 6 draws = 6 wins + 9 draws = 5 wins + 12 draws. I'd say the most achievable returns from those would be 8+3 or 7+6 so 11 or 13 results from 18 games. Not impossible!
A basic breakdown of our remaining fixtures shows we've got 9 home and 9 away. 3 of the home games are against current bottom half teams (Fulham, Burnley, Forest) as are 6 of the aways (Palace, Luton, Wolves, Bournemouth, Brentford, Everton) I'd expect very little from the top half aways (Man Utd, Liverpool, Newcastle) but we've shown we can run those teams close even when we've been rubbish and I could see us picking up some points in those top half home games (West Ham, Villa, Brighton, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs).
Is 7 wins and 6 draws really that farfetched from those games? (Yes but that's not the point) Even assuming we lose the 3 top half aways we'd need 13 results from 15 games. Under Wilder I expect us to compete well against most teams and always think a draw is possible, if we can edge out a few wins in Jan/Feb then maybe we've got a chance.
However, that's not gonna be very fun for the rest of the season so in an attempt to find some optimism going into the new year I wanted to see if there was any feasible route to survival for us.
I'm assuming we'll get nothing from the Man City game so that would leave us on 9 points after 20 games. A pitiful record that suggests hopelessness might be the correct position to take but I'm not interested in being rational.
So what are some positives? We've shown clear improvement under Wilder. Statistically our performances have been much stronger and we've been much more competitive in games. We kept Brentford, Luton and Villa to under 1xG, Liverpool didn't create too much and we did ok against Chelsea first half. There's 3 weeks until the next league game after City so that gives the players some time to rest, reset and refocus and the coaches have some time on the training ground to tidy up a few things. There's also the possibility that we could bring in a player or two in January to strengthen the first eleven and hopefully our injury situation clears up a little.
A quick look at the past few premier league seasons shows generally between 36-40 points will keep you up. Let's keep being optimistic say this is a year when you need 36 points to stay up. That means 27 points from 18 games or 1.5ppg. A drastic improvement but not unachievable. The possible ways to reach that total are 9 wins = 8 wins + 3 draws = 7 wins + 6 draws = 6 wins + 9 draws = 5 wins + 12 draws. I'd say the most achievable returns from those would be 8+3 or 7+6 so 11 or 13 results from 18 games. Not impossible!
A basic breakdown of our remaining fixtures shows we've got 9 home and 9 away. 3 of the home games are against current bottom half teams (Fulham, Burnley, Forest) as are 6 of the aways (Palace, Luton, Wolves, Bournemouth, Brentford, Everton) I'd expect very little from the top half aways (Man Utd, Liverpool, Newcastle) but we've shown we can run those teams close even when we've been rubbish and I could see us picking up some points in those top half home games (West Ham, Villa, Brighton, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs).
Is 7 wins and 6 draws really that farfetched from those games? (Yes but that's not the point) Even assuming we lose the 3 top half aways we'd need 13 results from 15 games. Under Wilder I expect us to compete well against most teams and always think a draw is possible, if we can edge out a few wins in Jan/Feb then maybe we've got a chance.