87 points needed....play offs it is!

[Borbokisfreekick]

There's been a lot of talk of automatic promotion due to our mini run, but everyone really needs to be more realistic.

For us to get automatic promotion we'll probably have to get a minimum of 87 points. Looking at MK Dons and Swindon's form to date, and past seasons 2nd place points totals , it looks like this season will be around the 87 point mark, plus they have far superior goal difference.

This means we will have to win 13 out of our remaining 17 games. Not impossible, but that would need us having a run of results that we've hardly ever had in our history!

Let's just enjoy the ride, hope we avoid Preston in the play off's (Grayson and their 'worse than ours play off record' makes me nervous) and dream of a beard infused Done and Brayford inspired Wembley win!

 

[DronnieBlade]

Was gonna write something on the same lines,

Would take something rather special now to get Auto.

But, until its mathematically impossible...............


Woooooo




Yeah

UTB

 

[bladesmanluke]

We're gonna finish on 99 points so don't worry about it

 

[Borbokisfreekick]

We're gonna finish on 99 points so don't worry about it

Knowing our luck Bristol City will have 101 and MK Dons will have 100!!!

I still can't believe we missed out in 2012 - 90 points and still didn't go up. crazy.

 

[HillmortonBlade]

Three points on Saturday against Coventry, that's the next thing I am looking forward to, then the next match and then the next. I can't think much further ahead...

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

MK Dons and Swindon do not have the squad to play the amount of games between now and the end of the season without dropping more points than they did in the first half. Only my opinion obviously but they can't rotate as we can and I think they'll hit a wall.

 

[Taramasalata]

Knocker

we are now on an unprecedented unbeaten run in our lifetime ever ever ever.

87 points, well pass that by easter then get more by the second coming.

 

[SwissBlade]

13 wins needed out of 17? I was thinking we'd need to win all the games to win the league

 

[Taramasalata]

13 wins needed out of 17? I was thinking we'd need to win all the games to win the league

Easy peasy lemon squeezy

 

[grafikhaus]

I still can't believe we missed out in 2012 - 90 points and still didn't go up. crazy.

A bit like getting relegated from the PL with 38 points...

 

[mattbianco1]

We shouldn't live on false hope but... Who will we lose to?

This table charts the fixtures in February 2015

HOME (should get maximum 27pts, realistic target 21/23pts)
Coventry
Peterborough
Fleetwood
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Crewe
Doncaster
Bradford
Chesterfield

AWAY (draws at Rochdale, Scunthorpe, Barnsley and Oldham. Win at the rest = 16pt)
Rochdale
Crawley
Scunthorpe
Walsall
Barnsley
Oldham
Yeovil
Orient

Get 37pts from the above and we'll make 2nd place. That is 6 draws 11 wins.

OR

Win all the home games and we only need 3 away wins for 95pts

 

[Gavlar]

A bit like getting relegated from the PL with 38 points...

On goal difference, by 1 goal

 

[Gavlar]

We shouldn't live on false hope but... Who will we lose to?

This table charts the fixtures in February 2015

HOME (should get maximum 27pts, realistic target 21/23pts)
Coventry
Peterborough
Fleetwood
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Crewe
Doncaster
Bradford
Chesterfield

AWAY (draws at Rochdale, Scunthorpe, Barnsley and Oldham. Win at the rest = 16pt)
Rochdale
Crawley
Scunthorpe
Walsall
Barnsley
Oldham
Yeovil
Orient

Get 37pts from the above and we'll make 2nd place. That is 6 draws 11 wins.

OR

Win all the home games and we only need 3 away wins for 95pts

What is the run in for Swindon, MK Dons and Preston in comparison? They are probably feeling the same thing as us that they can win most of them and they already have a head start with points and goal diff.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

What is the run in for Swindon, MK Dons and Preston in comparison? They are probably feeling the same thing as us that they can win most of them and they already have a head start with points and goal diff.

Exactly, if we manage mid 80's, 2 out of the top 3 would only need to win around half of their games to top that. They may dip but not that much which means we realistically need to be closer to 90 to have any chance.

 

[Gee]

Who is to say the teams above aren't going to choke it when we start closing the gap and pressure on them to win starts to build, I have never known so many negative fans as on here. Get a grip!!

 

[YES Blade]

Who is to say the teams above aren't going to choke it when we start closing the gap and pressure on them to win starts to build, I have never known so many negative fans as on here. Get a grip!!

Surely with there being 4 teams already in the mix for the top 2 there is already pressure? Why does a good run from us add any extra pressure?

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

What is the run in for Swindon, MK Dons and Preston in comparison? They are probably feeling the same thing as us that they can win most of them and they already have a head start with points and goal diff.

Bold denotes home games,
Red denotes top 9 teams, included 9th (Bradford) due to their games in hand.

Swindon:
Crawley, Bradford, Crewe, Gillingham, Notts County, Port Vale, Doncaster, Colchester, MK Dons, Bristol City, Peterborough, Rochdale, Yeovil, Walsall, Preston, Leyton Orient.

MK Dons:
Peterborough, Coventry, Chesterfield, Preston, Walsall, Oldham, Notts County, Doncaster, Swindon, Scunthorpe, Port Vale, Fleetwood, Leyton Orient, Rochdale, Yeovil

Preston
Scunthorpe, Walsall, Oldham, Doncaster, MK Dons, Crewe, Peterborough, Barnsley, Fleetwood, Rochdale, Bradford, Bristol City, Gillingham, Port Vale, Swindon, Colchester.

 

[SotonBlade]

This means we will have to win 13 out of our remaining 17 games. Not impossible, but that would need us having a run of results that we've hardly ever had in our history!

Records are there to be broken!

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

Our last three results are 4-1, 3-1, 2-1, demonstrating an obvious decline

 

[mattbianco1]

So MK Dons have tough games vs. Preston, Doncaster, Oldham, Doncaster and Swindon

Swindon - Doncaster, MK Dons, Bristol C & Preston

Preston (who I don't believe have a chance of the top 2 anyway) - Oldham, Donny, MK, Bristol City & Swindon.

Makes our run-in look nice doesn't it

 

[YES Blade]

So MK Dons have tough games vs. Preston, Doncaster, Oldham, Doncaster and Swindon

Swindon - Doncaster, MK Dons, Bristol C & Preston

Preston (who I don't believe have a chance of the top 2 anyway) - Oldham, Donny, MK, Bristol City & Swindon.

Makes our run-in look nice doesn't it

No easy games at this time of year blah blah blah

 

[OllyBlade]

Do you guys remember when we were shit? Like, 2 weeks ago. Dark days...

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

So MK Dons have tough games vs. Preston, Doncaster, Oldham, Doncaster and Swindon

Swindon - Doncaster, MK Dons, Bristol C & Preston

Preston (who I don't believe have a chance of the top 2 anyway) - Oldham, Donny, MK, Bristol City & Swindon.

Makes our run-in look nice doesn't it

You say tough games, but the reason I included the teams as far down as Bradford is that if we are winning (accepted its a big if), then even them picking up a draw brings us 2 points closer. Obvious I know, but it's only a point less than them losing which you would think is less likely.
Again an obvious point but we need to put on the pressure, and go on a daft run of 8-10 straight wins, after that anything can happen. Currently the pressure is on us, because we drop points and the momentum is lost, however another 10 games and that pressure moves over to those we are chasing as they have to match us.
Right now the ball is in our court.

 

[Cyprus Blade]

The thing with United is we can be world beaters one day and lose to total crap the next - no point beating ourselves up or building un-necessary pressure on ourselves, better to go one game at a time, treat it like a cup final, win as many as we can, get the goal diff as high as we can and see where we end up.

If its the play-offs get all the key players fit and psyched and let the beards do the talking. The one thing I would like to see is all the players stop shaving until its done (nb Louis Reed would still look the same so we may need to get him a fake one ).

 

[Mad Mick]

The important point here is that the teams above us have to play each other. So by definition they will take points of each other.
This puts a totally different perspective on things. Ideal scenario would be for Bristol City to beat ALL our rivals and we sneak in under the radar.
Of course play off s are the more realistic, but it's good to have a dream, I have them all the time, but they tend to be wet.

 

[Bladesman]

The important point here is that the teams above us have to play each other. So by definition they will take points of each other.
This puts a totally different perspective on things. Ideal scenario would be for Bristol City to beat ALL our rivals and we sneak in under the radar.
Of course play off s are the more realistic, but it's good to have a dream, I have them all the time, but they tend to be wet.

I agree I think if we do have a chance then we would probably look at to Bristol to help us out by taking points of the others around us. It would take a big dip in form for them not to get promoted automaticlly.

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

We would probably look at to Bristol to help us out by taking points off the others around us.

After the recent love-in on this Message Board between us and them I can see this happening.

 

[DazBlade88]

Ignore any projected points totals, previous totals or whatever else because there's so many differing factors.

We just need to keep picking up points and see what happens. All we know is, it looks a hell of a lot better than it did 10 days ago.

 

[mattbianco1]

Beat Coventry and that's 4 on the bounce boys and 5 wins out of 6 in the League. Carry on that form to the end of the season and we will lose only 2 or 3 games.

 

[Bob Hutchins]

We can still get automatic. I have a feeling we will put a good run together now. we had our little mini crisis.
Big 4 weeks fir us RAWW. I would also like to know how many miles DONE ran last night? that lad never stops.