353 league prediction

[Benny]

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Seems high to me? What do you think

 

[Snowflake]

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Seems high to me? What do you think

Seems ok to everyone except some members of this forum !
Any team 4 points clear with a game in hand , having just defeated Spurs, would be favourites to go up.

 

[jt64]

Seems fine given data-driven analytics sites, unlike single club fan forums, don't wet the bed when you lose against a decent team. If you think it's high, take the 80 quid of someone's money that's available on Betfair from someone who thinks it's only 59%.

 

[Flumps]

Seems ok to everyone except some members of this forum !
Any team 4 points clear with a game in hand , having just defeated Spurs, would be favourites to go up.

Agreed. Unfortunately that performance yesterday was seen by a lot of the country and was poor. Made the win against Spurs completely redundant if you ask me

 

[CaptainMorgans]

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Seems high to me? What do you think

I think it's still too high. I thought it was way too high when it had us at around 85-90% in January too.

There was way too much football left to be played to have certainty values at those levels.

I don't know what metrics they use to form their analytics but trajectories driven by form tables would have Middlesbrough passing us into second place.

I still make us favourites... but only just.
60% ish.

 

[Bell4]

I think it's still too high. I thought it was way too high when it had us at around 85-90% in January too.

There was way too much football left to be played to have certainty values at those levels.

I don't know what metrics they use to form their analytics but trajectories driven by form tables would have Middlesbrough passing us into second place.

I still make us favourites... but only just.
60% ish.

I make us favourite if we win our next two games - if we get 3 points or less I don’t make us favourites

 

[Benny]

It’s actually quite interesting reading how they do it. Seems like they usually get the big picture right but game by game it’s a bit janky.

According to the model we were twice as likely as Blackburn to win .

How Our Club Soccer Predictions Work

References Engsoccerdata / Opta / Transfermarkt Harmonic mean / Massey’s method / Monte Carlo method / Poisson process / Ranked probability score The Details We…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Fixture No.	Sheffield Utd fixtures	64​		Middlesbrough fixtures	60​
35	Reading (A)	65​
36	Luton (H)	66​		Swansea (A)	63​
37	Sunderland (A)	66​		Stoke (H)	66​
38	Norwich (A)	66​		Preston (H)	69​
39	Wigan (H)	69​		Huddersfield (A)	70​
40	Burnley (A)	69​		Burnley (H)	71​
41	Cardiff (H)	72​		Bristol (A)	72​
42	Bristol (H)	75​		Norwich (H)	73​
43	Huddersfield (A)	78​		Hull (H)	76​
44	West Brom (H)	78​		Luton (A)	76​
45	Preston (H)	81​		Rotherham (A)	79​
46	Birmingham (A)	82​		Coventry (H)	82​

A little go at predicting the run-in.
Even tighter than I'd imagined before I started going through it.

 

[Bladey_blade]

Fixture No.	Sheffield Utd fixtures	64​		Middlesbrough fixtures	60​
35	Reading (A)	65​
36	Luton (H)	66​		Swansea (A)	63​
37	Sunderland (A)	66​		Stoke (H)	66​
38	Norwich (A)	66​		Preston (H)	69​
39	Wigan (H)	69​		Huddersfield (A)	70​
40	Burnley (A)	69​		Burnley (H)	71​
41	Cardiff (H)	72​		Bristol (A)	72​
42	Bristol (H)	75​		Norwich (H)	73​
43	Huddersfield (A)	78​		Hull (H)	76​
44	West Brom (H)	78​		Luton (A)	76​
45	Preston (H)	81​		Rotherham (A)	79​
46	Birmingham (A)	82​		Coventry (H)	82​

A little go at predicting the run-in.
Even tighter than I'd imagined before I started going through it.

Think if we wake up we will beat Luton and get at least a point against wba at home but it won't good for the heart

 

[ChipButtyBlade]

Fixture No.	Sheffield Utd fixtures	64​		Middlesbrough fixtures	60​
35	Reading (A)	65​
36	Luton (H)	66​		Swansea (A)	63​
37	Sunderland (A)	66​		Stoke (H)	66​
38	Norwich (A)	66​		Preston (H)	69​
39	Wigan (H)	69​		Huddersfield (A)	70​
40	Burnley (A)	69​		Burnley (H)	71​
41	Cardiff (H)	72​		Bristol (A)	72​
42	Bristol (H)	75​		Norwich (H)	73​
43	Huddersfield (A)	78​		Hull (H)	76​
44	West Brom (H)	78​		Luton (A)	76​
45	Preston (H)	81​		Rotherham (A)	79​
46	Birmingham (A)	82​		Coventry (H)	82​

A little go at predicting the run-in.
Even tighter than I'd imagined before I started going through it.

In my Run in Bingo thread i have us losing out on the auto's by 1 point. https://www.s24su.com/forum/threads/the-run-in-bingo.94200/

Boro's remaining fixtures

• QPR (H)...............................Win 2-0 = 3pts
• West Brom (A)................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Reading (H).....................Win 3-1 = 3pts
• Swansea (A)....................Win 2-1 =3pts
• Stoke (H)..........................Win 2-0 =3pts
• Preston (H)......................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Huddersfield (A).........Win 3-0 =3pts
• Burnley (H).....................Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Bristol City (A)..............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Norwich City (H).........Lose1-0 =0pt
• Hull City (H)..................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Luton Town (A)...........Lose 2-0 = 0pt
• Rotherham (A)............Win 1-0 = 3pts
• Coventry (H)................draw 2-2 =1pt

Total 22 points

Sheffield United's remaining fixtures

• Millwall (A).......................Draw 0-0 = 1pt
• Watford (H).....................Lose 1-0 = 0pt
• Blackburn (A).................Lose 3-0 = 0pt
• Reading (A)....................Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Luton Town (H)............Win 1-0 =3pts
• Sunderland (A)............Lose 4-0 = 0pt
• West Brom (H).............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Norwich City (A)........Lose 2-0 = 0pt
• Wigan (H)....................Win 2-0 = 3pts
• Burnley (A)...................Lose 4-0 = 0pt
• Cardiff City (H)..........Win 2-1 = 3pts
• Bristol City (H)............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Huddersfield (A)........Win 1-0 = 3pts
• Preston (H)...................Draw 2-2 = 1pt
• Birmingham (A)........Lose 1-0 = 0 pt

Total 14 pts

We lose automatic promotion by 1 point on the last day of the season,would that just be great right up there amongst the greatest fookups its the Blades way.

 

[Frank the tank]

In my Run in Bingo thread i have us losing out on the auto's by 1 point. https://www.s24su.com/forum/threads/the-run-in-bingo.94200/

Boro's remaining fixtures

• QPR (H)...............................Win 2-0 = 3pts
• West Brom (A)................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Reading (H).....................Win 3-1 = 3pts
• Swansea (A)....................Win 2-1 =3pts
• Stoke (H)..........................Win 2-0 =3pts
• Preston (H)......................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Huddersfield (A).........Win 3-0 =3pts
• Burnley (H).....................Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Bristol City (A)..............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Norwich City (H).........Lose1-0 =0pt
• Hull City (H)..................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Luton Town (A)...........Lose 2-0 = 0pt
• Rotherham (A)............Win 1-0 = 3pts
• Coventry (H)................draw 2-2 =1pt

Total 22 points

Sheffield United's remaining fixtures

• Millwall (A).......................Draw 0-0 = 1pt
• Watford (H).....................Lose 1-0 = 0pt
• Blackburn (A).................Lose 3-0 = 0pt
• Reading (A)....................Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Luton Town (H)............Win 1-0 =3pts
• Sunderland (A)............Lose 4-0 = 0pt
• West Brom (H).............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Norwich City (A)........Lose 2-0 = 0pt
• Wigan (H)....................Win 2-0 = 3pts
• Burnley (A)...................Lose 4-0 = 0pt
• Cardiff City (H)..........Win 2-1 = 3pts
• Bristol City (H)............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Huddersfield (A)........Win 1-0 = 3pts
• Preston (H)...................Draw 2-2 = 1pt
• Birmingham (A)........Lose 1-0 = 0 pt

Total 14 pts

We lose automatic promotion by 1 point on the last day of the season,would that just be great right up there amongst the greatest fookups its the Blades way.

You think we will lose 9 games out of 15

 

[LS16Blade]

WBA are excellent at home but hopeless away from home - I’m not viewing their visit to the Lane as a particularly difficult fixture, particularly as their season may well be all over by the time they play us on the rearranged date.

Sunderland away is another fixture that looks rather less daunting than it did a few weeks ago. They appear to be running out of steam - as lots of promoted teams often do especially when suffering injuries to key players (as we know all too well) - and limping to the end of the season.

Burnley and Norwich stand out as the only 2 really difficult tests in our remaining fixtures.

 

[VictoryBlade]

Based on my very humble opinion we will get 17 points and Boro will get 22

 

[Snowflake]

Fixture No.	Sheffield Utd fixtures	64​		Middlesbrough fixtures	60​
35	Reading (A)	65​
36	Luton (H)	66​		Swansea (A)	63​
37	Sunderland (A)	66​		Stoke (H)	66​
38	Norwich (A)	66​		Preston (H)	69​
39	Wigan (H)	69​		Huddersfield (A)	70​
40	Burnley (A)	69​		Burnley (H)	71​
41	Cardiff (H)	72​		Bristol (A)	72​
42	Bristol (H)	75​		Norwich (H)	73​
43	Huddersfield (A)	78​		Hull (H)	76​
44	West Brom (H)	78​		Luton (A)	76​
45	Preston (H)	81​		Rotherham (A)	79​
46	Birmingham (A)	82​		Coventry (H)	82​

A little go at predicting the run-in.
Even tighter than I'd imagined before I started going through it.

It’s tighter than you expected because(in my opinion) you are being too negative with only two points from our next four.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

It’s tighter than you expected because(in my opinion) you are being too negative with only two points from our next four.

3 / 4 are away from home to teams that are decent at home.
Our record on the road has been poor and we don't seem to be improving or showing a willingness to change it.

 

[HuddersfieldBlade]

Great site this one. Although the list of global clubs is wrong

Global Club Soccer Rankings

FiveThirtyEight's global club soccer rankings compare hundreds of men's soccer teams across dozens of leagues

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[JJBlade]

You think we will lose 9 games out of 15

2 out of 3
So it is possible

 

[Snowflake]

3 / 4 are away from home to teams that are decent at home.
Our record on the road has been poor and we don't seem to be improving or showing a willingness to change it.

We will see !!

 

[Benny]

Another model posted here.

Interestingly enough that 6 point swing this weekend lopped 9% off our chances of going up according to their model.

 

[Carlton Blade]

We have a less than 50/50 chance of finishing 2nd based on that prediction. So if you were betting, you'd bet on it not to happen

 

[Benny]

We have a less than 50/50 chance of finishing 2nd based on that prediction. So if you were betting, you'd bet on it not to happen

According to that we have a 74% chance of finishing 2nd, or am i misreading it?

 

[Carlton Blade]

In my Run in Bingo thread i have us losing out on the auto's by 1 point. https://www.s24su.com/forum/threads/the-run-in-bingo.94200/

Boro's remaining fixtures

• QPR (H)...............................Win 2-0 = 3pts
• West Brom (A)................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Reading (H).....................Win 3-1 = 3pts
• Swansea (A)....................Win 2-1 =3pts
• Stoke (H)..........................Win 2-0 =3pts
• Preston (H)......................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Huddersfield (A).........Win 3-0 =3pts
• Burnley (H).....................Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Bristol City (A)..............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Norwich City (H).........Lose1-0 =0pt
• Hull City (H)..................Draw 1-1 = 1pt
• Luton Town (A)...........Lose 2-0 = 0pt
• Rotherham (A)............Win 1-0 = 3pts
• Coventry (H)................draw 2-2 =1pt

Total 22 points

Sheffield United's remaining fixtures

• Millwall (A).......................Draw 0-0 = 1pt
• Watford (H).....................Lose 1-0 = 0pt
• Blackburn (A).................Lose 3-0 = 0pt
• Reading (A)....................Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Luton Town (H)............Win 1-0 =3pts
• Sunderland (A)............Lose 4-0 = 0pt
• West Brom (H).............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Norwich City (A)........Lose 2-0 = 0pt
• Wigan (H)....................Win 2-0 = 3pts
• Burnley (A)...................Lose 4-0 = 0pt
• Cardiff City (H)..........Win 2-1 = 3pts
• Bristol City (H)............Lose 2-1 = 0pt
• Huddersfield (A)........Win 1-0 = 3pts
• Preston (H)...................Draw 2-2 = 1pt
• Birmingham (A)........Lose 1-0 = 0 pt

Total 14 pts

We lose automatic promotion by 1 point on the last day of the season,would that just be great right up there amongst the greatest fookups its the Blades way.

You have us with a -14 goal difference over the final 15 games and if you extrapolated that out over the full season it'd be 43 points and a goal difference of -43

 

[Carlton Blade]

According to that we have a 74% chance of finishing 2nd, or am i misreading it?

Yes. We have 74% chance of being promoted. That includes playoffs (30%), 1st (4%) and 2nd (41%)

 

[jt64]

Another model posted here.

Interestingly enough that 6 point swing this weekend lopped 9% off our chances of going up according to their model.

I am not sure why. The model would have been expecting Boro to be getting a large percentage of the points on offer at their game, and us not so much

 

[biggiesablade]

Yes. We have 74% chance of being promoted. That includes playoffs (30%), 1st (4%) and 2nd (41%)

I don't get your working out it says auto promotion 76%

 

[Benny]

Yes. We have 74% chance of being promoted. That includes playoffs (30%), 1st (4%) and 2nd (41%)

I thought it was 76% (2% as champions and 74% 2nd place) of automatic promotion and 24% of getting in the playoffs.

I don't think this model factors in the playoff promotions, just the likelyhood of where you'll be in the league at the end of the regular season.

 

[Carlton Blade]

I don't get your working out it says auto promotion 76%

You're right, I'm wrong. Should have looked at the Boro numbers

It's 69% 1st or 2nd for United

 

[Carlton Blade]

I thought it was 76% (2% as champions and 74% 2nd place) of automatic promotion and 24% of getting in the playoffs.

I don't think this model factors in the playoff promotions, just the likelyhood of where you'll be in the league at the end of the regular season.

If you go to the actual link you can highlight each position. 4% 1st, 65% 2nd

 

[Carlton Blade]

1st 4%
2nd 65%
3rd 20%
4th 7%
5th 3%
6th 1%

 

[Carlton Blade]

This is what they use to determine the majority of their predictions

SPI ratings​

At the heart of our club soccer forecasts are FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings, which are our best estimate of a team’s overall strength. In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede. These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points — a win is worth 3 points, a tie worth 1 point, and a loss worth 0 points — the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.

Given the ratings for any two teams, we can project the result of a match between them in a variety of formats — such as a league match, a home-and-away tie or a cup final — as well as simulate whole seasons to arrive at the probability each team will win the league, qualify for the Champions League or be relegated to a lower division.
Before a season begins, a team’s SPI ratings are based on two factors: its ratings at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt (a site that assigns a monetary value to each player, based on what they would fetch in a transfer). We’ve found that a team’s market value — relative to their league’s average value — is strongly correlated with its end-of-season SPI rating. Thus, we use these market values to infer each team’s preseason SPI rating.

As a season plays out, a team’s ratings are adjusted after every match based on its performance in that match and the strength of its opponent. Unlike with the Elo rating system we use in several other sports, a team’s rating doesn’t necessarily improve whenever it wins a match; if it performs worse than the model expected, its ratings can decline.