clough aims for top 2.. we shouldn't

[Tezza1889]

Nigel clough was recently quoted that he is aiming for a top 2 place, very admirable but I got the feeling that it was already out of our grasp..

I am a supporter of clough and this thread is in support of him, a way of defending him against the people who will say he has failed when we don't go up auto, we might need another season in league one, and we certainly need to stick with clough for the long term, it was never going to be an easy job turning this club around, or a quick one for that matter too..

here goes with some details on what the top three are achieving against what we are doing,.all based on current form, and games remaining from a stats point of view, I know footballs a "funny old game saint" but they'll need to collapse in a way never seen before...and we'll need a record breaking run as well...

Swindon are averiging 2.04 points per game, scoring 1.9 goals per game along the way, while conceeding 0.96 goals per game, on current form they'll get another 43 points finishing on 95 points for the season.

Bristol city are averaging 2.13 points per game, scoring 1.92 goals per game, conceeding 0.92 goals per game, on current form they'll get another 42 points finishing on 98 points for the season.

Mk dons are averaging 1.96 points per game, scoring 2.17 goals per game, conceeding 1.04 goals per game, on current form they'll get 45 more points finishing on 90 points..

United are averaging 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.30 goals per game and conceeding 1.17 goals per game, on current form we will get 36 more points finishing on 72 for the season...

So, in short we need to achieve 27 points more than bristol in order to out perform them for top spot, and if we failed then we'd need to out perform swindon to the tune of 24 points in order to secure second place.. they both need to lose around ten games between now and the end of the season to give us a look in..

We need to average 2.60 points per game to come second, and 2.70 to win the thing, provided city and swindon keep going at the current rate, their results could improve or dip...

Even with an unbelievabe run it looks like the playoffs so keep calm, plan for this eventuality, keep faith in clough regardless what this season brings and if we stay down then we have the right to demand that next season is our year, there'll be no arguments that he hasn't had enough time to build a squad, first team, and perfect a style of play that should be good enough to win this league outright...

I do fancy us in the playoffs though. (Ffs....)

 

[SwissBlade]

No harm in still planning for top 2. Personally i hope that the Squad isn't looking at just top two, but looking at the top slot and chasing them down.

 

[Coily]

Automatic promotion has gone, at least two of Bristol City, Swindon, MK and Preston will get over 85 points and we won't manage that. The main thing for us is to get a play off spot, and we should be able to do that at a canter.

Hopefully this time we'll have something to believe in, and if we do we'll double the (justifiably piss poor) crowd we got against Yeovil.

 

[Tezza1889]

Agreed swiss, I just don't want people to look at the quote from clough and try to hang him for it..

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

Funny things happen in the second half of a season and form is everything.

 

[Putney Blade]

Not enough goals in the team to catch Bristol & Swindon - may favourites for the top two. Re-signing Porter and signing Higdon said everything about how NC totally under-estimated this...

 

[Tezza1889]

Funny things happen in the second half of a season and form is everything.

Mate i'd love a charge at them and see how they cope with the stress and pressure of being at the top like we've experienced before ( ended badly didn't it) but its just about giving perspective to supporters about clough and the target he spoke of which is although not impossible, a difficult task..

While the club seem to raise our expectaions, let's not raise them too high so some fans turn on another manager just for setting a target to motivate the first team.

 

[SwissBlade]

Agreed swiss, I just don't want people to look at the quote from clough and try to hang him for it..

I think people have been hanging him already this season, or at the very least preparing the noose. He's the best thing thats happened to the club in my lifetime, but people want to chop and change with no good reason.

Second half of the season (as bob says) funny things happen and i wouldn't necessarily use 1st half season form as a strict guide. Its a very tough task and i'm under no illusions that we need to really kick on with form like we had at the second half of last season, but in our favour we have a big squad, the players now know each other and we're getting to know our settled/ best 11.

Against us is that we still ship goals after we've taken a lead, whereas other sides are able to close out a 2-0 with a third goal, we like to concede one or two. So whilst at the back our goals against record doesn't look too bad, it isn't helped by the fact that we don't score anywhere near enough. So its goal scorers that we need and probably from midfield/ wingers more than McNulty as he seems to be finding the net quite regularly now. We need O'Grady though, he would be a huge boost. We need to ensure that we get attacking fullbacks (Flynn and or Brayford).

However, its the midfield of Scoogs, Doyle, Baxter, Reed, Wallace, Flo that need to not just supply the assists but also weigh in with goals of their own.

 

[Small Mendonca]

Aiming for the top 2 is good but like others have said, it's most likely out of reach judging by the form the other teams are on and the points gap. A realistic aim would be to finish 3rd/4th in order to have the home 2nd leg in the play offs.

 

[shorehamview]

Can you imagine the shitstorm if Clough had said that the top tow were out of reach and any chance of automatic promotion had gone? He'd have been slaughtered on this very forum...

 

[TonyAgana]

Not enough goals in the team to catch Bristol & Swindon - may favourites for the top two. Re-signing Porter and signing Higdon said everything about how NC totally under-estimated this...

I was recently given some old information from a pretty high-up member of staff who remained in his position until Weir took over, regarding the objectives given to new management. Based on that, it's difficult for me to question the effectiveness of NC. I'd be content with the play-offs.

 

[UnitedBlade]

Good summary of how incredibly difficult it will be to get into the top 2.

We need to secure a play off place and for once come April/ May be a side that has goals in it. Add to that a settled water-tight defence and we have a chance.

I would be more confident of a Clough led side at a play off final that any of our previous efforts.

You never know

 

[Tezza1889]

Can you imagine the shitstorm if Clough had said that the top tow were out of reach and any chance of automatic promotion had gone? He'd have been slaughtered on this very forum...

Making the point there, if we miss out on our target of auto don't you think some will want to slaugher him for talking auto and not getting it, we need to be realistic on our expectaions as fans, regardless of the target set by the manager, not every fan goes into things like some do on here, some will believe he can do it...he said so...didnt he?.and there the ones who will overeact and put presure on him.

 

[TonyAgana]

Making the point there, if we miss out on our target of auto don't you think some will want to slaugher him for talking auto and not getting it

Missing the auto target would be easier to manage over a course of months rather than throwing the towel in now.

 

[Grecian2000]

Swindon are averiging 2.04 points per game, scoring 1.9 goals per game along the way, while conceeding 0.96 goals per game, on current form they'll get another 43 points finishing on 95 points for the season.

Bristol city are averaging 2.13 points per game, scoring 1.92 goals per game, conceeding 0.92 goals per game, on current form they'll get another 42 points finishing on 98 points for the season.

Mk dons are averaging 1.96 points per game, scoring 2.17 goals per game, conceeding 1.04 goals per game, on current form they'll get 45 more points finishing on 90 points..

United are averaging 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.30 goals per game and conceeding 1.17 goals per game, on current form we will get 36 more points finishing on 72 for the season...

So, in short we need to achieve 27 points more than bristol in order to out perform them for top spot, and if we failed then we'd need to out perform swindon to the tune of 24 points in order to secure second place..

I appreciate your points, just a bit alarmed at your maths though!

Both BC and Swindon have 51 points. Adding 43 and 42 to that makes 94 and 93 (not 95 and 98).

That reduces your "27 points we need" already but more significantly this total is only based on their form remaining "as is" for the entire season. In real terms we need to gain 16 more points than them both between now and the end of the season. Still a big ask though.

 

[Fulwood Blade]

Nigel clough was recently quoted that he is aiming for a top 2 place, very admirable but I got the feeling that it was already out of our grasp..

)

I have picked out just the first line to highlight a situation.

I used to work for a pharmaceutical chain called "Weldricks" - am sure many will have seen these shops as they are all over S Yorks etc. It was originally run by a fella who I admired greatly and taught me many things about business and life and I feel grateful for our paths crossing.

He taught me a few things and one of this favourite phrases was "Never assume anything......."

Another was "A first class attitude and second class skill is always better than a second class attitude and first class skill"

Simple phrases but with a lot of meaning if you take a minute to think about them.

I fully expect NC to NEVER,EVER give up on the top 2 places until it is mathematically impossible - if we go into our last game needing to beat Chesterfield 6 nil at home and "hope" lets say Swindon lose away for us to go up automatically, then we should just go for it.

You might be right, it is now a step too far - but we should go for it and at the same time try and give Spurs the fright of their little lives and also stuff the thugs over in Preston. We can with NC's management do exactly what we did last season -there's no reason why not.

The fans can do their part in trying to get us there - we owe MK Plastic Dons for that equally thuggery performance a few weeks ago - what a great place to start.

UTB

 

[Coily]

Aiming for the top 2 is good but like others have said, it's most likely out of reach judging by the form the other teams are on and the points gap. A realistic aim would be to finish 3rd/4th in order to have the home 2nd leg in the play offs.

I think with this side we'd be better served playing the away leg second, where it would be tailor made for our counter attacking style. Of course, winning 6-0 in the first leg would help too...

 

[Woodwardfan]

I was recently given some old information from a pretty high-up member of staff who remained in his position until Weir took over, regarding the objectives given to new management. Based on that, it's difficult for me to question the effectiveness of NC. I'd be content with the play-offs.

Can you expand on that? Sounds fascinating. Are there enough reasons there why we couldn't find a new manager at that time? Heading for oblivion were we? But isn't Clough on a totally new budget to that Weir was on with a completely different brief?

 

[DSB-91]

It's an incredibly daunting task and one that looks more like an outside hope than a realistic target. Clough will be more aware of that anyone, he seems a pragmatic personality and not one for making rash, regrettable claims. I am sure he is well prepared for the possibility of play-offs.

Setting top two as the target is a way of guarding against complacency, sending a signal to the team that they have to give everything in every game and not just do enough to stay in the top 6, which they should be able to do easily.

The play-offs are all about momentum. If we keep striving for the top two and put a run together then it will benefit us even if we miss out.

 

[Tezza1889]

I appreciate your points, just a bit alarmed at your maths though!

Both BC and Swindon have 51 points. Adding 43 and 42 to that makes 94 and 93 (not 95 and 98).

That reduces your "27 points we need" already but more significantly this total is only based on their form remaining "as is" for the entire season. In real terms we need to gain 16 more points than them both between now and the end of the season. Still a big ask though.

Oops, typo alert...


Got the numbers here in full current form for swindon was 42.84 adding 51 gives 93.84. 21 remaining x 2.04 average.

Typed the wrong number for brizzle 46.86 adding 51 gives 97.86... 22 remaining x 2.13 average..

Almost 98 points, its rounded up,.didn't think I would need absolute accuracy,.although I should have double checked as I knew it would be scrutinised....

 

[Darthblade]

Any talk of automatic places, whilst fun to debate, is rather like speculating that it would be nice to get Drogba on loan !!

Our automatic opportunity disappeared in the "car crash" that was November / December fuelled by our inability to strengthen the squad at the end of the last transfer window. It was crystal clear that we had no goals in the squad back in September.

Unless we strengthen now we will struggle to get 6th spot and will never compete with the other likely play-off teams over 2 games. Our lightweight squad is much better suited to playing higher League sides who don't kick us in the air rather than the teams in this "agricultural" Division
UTB & FTP

 

[TonyAgana]

Can you expand on that? Sounds fascinating. Are there enough reasons there why we couldn't find a new manager at that time? Heading for oblivion were we? But isn't Clough on a totally new budget to that Weir was on with a completely different brief?

I don't know how much of the brief gets around the managers before being interviewed so can't say whether it affected the scope at the time, although I'd imagine it would put plenty off. It was presented with a positive spin but would still have been quite a dismal task for anyone to take on. Essentially, it was to tread water in order to avoid oblivion. In a funny twist of fate, it's probably a good thing that Weir did such a dreadful job in terms of results that the board were forced to sack him and get Clough in. I'd also suspect Clough is on an improved budget but given some of his manoeuvres it certainly looks like some of the other objectives are still in place.

 

[Pinchy]

Can you imagine the shitstorm if Clough had said that the top tow were out of reach and any chance of automatic promotion had gone? He'd have been slaughtered on this very forum...

Some will only hear what they want to hear, in any event.

We are constantly told that NC will never play two up front, ignoring his quite recent interview (on RS - I heard it with my very own ears!) where he said he was looking forward to seeing COG and McN as a partnership.

I suppose the agenda has to be maintained at all costs....

 

[mattbianco1]

I would much rather him say we're aiming at the top two whilst quite a way off than be like Grayson at Preston who was quoted as saying that if they finish in the Play Offs then so be it... They are 6pts off the leaders with a game in hand.

 

[Tezza1889]

I appreciate your points, just a bit alarmed at your maths though!

Both BC and Swindon have 51 points. Adding 43 and 42 to that makes 94 and 93 (not 95 and 98).

That reduces your "27 points we need" already but more significantly this total is only based on their form remaining "as is" for the entire season. In real terms we need to gain 16 more points than them both between now and the end of the season. Still a big ask though.

As for the 27 points needed, this is based on current form,.if we all stay the same average wise between now and the end of the season we will finish on 72 points , bristol on 97.75, and swindon on 93.84....

I had added a point as I don't think we'll catch them on goal difference, I do appear to be one point out on swindon however, we will be 21.84 points behind not the 23 needed to draw level, the 23 became 24 for goal diff reasons.

 

[Tezza1889]

I would much rather him say we're aiming at the top two whilst quite a way off than be like Grayson at Preston who was quoted as saying that if they finish in the Play Offs then so be it... They are 6pts off the leaders with a game in hand.

Spot on, but the whole point of this is to give a littlle reality to the task in order to defend clough from those who will look to blame him if he was not to get auto...

 

[Tezza1889]

Any talk of automatic places, whilst fun to debate, is rather like speculating that it would be nice to get Drogba on loan !!

Our automatic opportunity disappeared in the "car crash" that was November / December fuelled by our inability to strengthen the squad at the end of the last transfer window. It was crystal clear that we had no goals in the squad back in September.

Unless we strengthen now we will struggle to get 6th spot and will never compete with the other likely play-off teams over 2 games. Our lightweight squad is much better suited to playing higher League sides who don't kick us in the air rather than the teams in this "agricultural" Division
UTB & FTP

This is what is at stake by an overreaction, we have a manager capable of outwitting premier league teams, if were we to be promoted we would do it with a style of football that would hold its own in the higher divisions, this is down to how clough sets the team out, its a great target to set,.possibly the only one the board and fans would be ok with, but let's not hound clough out if it doesn't happen...

 

[Revolution]

Spot on, but the whole point of this is to give a littlle reality to the task in order to defend clough from those who will look to blame him if he was not to get auto...

Clough manages the best supported and most well resourced club in the division. He was coming off a great second half to the season. He had a decent squad of players. He had a licence to bring in, and did bring in, a number of new players.

Sorry, why shouldn't we expect to be challenging for the top 2?

 

[Tezza1889]

Clough manages the best supported and most well resourced club in the division. He was coming off a great second half to the season. He had a decent squad of players. He had a licence to bring in, and did bring in, a number of new players.

Sorry, why shouldn't we expect to be challenging for the top 2?

We should be, but at the minute were 15 points behind and exactly half way through the season, if we carry on with current form we are not going up auto but clough has set it as a target, nothing wrong with a target being set high but didn't he have an option to say anything else, phipps called it a promotion campaign, and I think in order to limit exposure given our position clough maybee should have said the same..

 

[Newbury Blade]

We have two games in hand on Swindon. Let's say we win those, we are nine points behind. If we beat Swindon, we are six points behind. Which is not a very big gap at all. I am not saying it would be easy, but I don't see any reason why we can't do it if we can put a decent run together.