ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Making the playoffs may be unlikely - but it is still a realistic target.
I set playoff targets for each match back on August 9th, based on my forecasts of all 24 teams’ form.
I have now reset the remaining 18 game targets, based on our current position and every other team's seasons to date.
Table 1 shows the points achieved by 6th and 7th places over the last 6 years. 71 points would have been enough to beat 7th in every one of those years. 77 points would have been enough to at least match 6th place in 5 of those 6 years. So I am taking 71 points as a Playoff Possible total and 77 points as a Playoff Probable total.
Table 1:
Table 2 shows our final 18 games and 2 series of results that achieve those 71 and 77 point totals.
There is not an unrealistic result on this table – it is just achieving all of them that is the challenge.
Table 2:
Finally, Graph 1 plots our season so far, along with the above Table 2 paths to those final points targets.
When you look at that graph, the projection doesn’t look at all over-optimistic.
I will plot our progress on this graph after each game.
Graph 1:
On the xgPoints Tables we are currently 4th – so our general performance is already certainly Top 6.
Our Best 11 is developing some great partnerships – Hamer and O’Hare, Brooks and Seriki, Tanganga and Bindon, Bamford and Cannon, Riedewald and Peck.
That is what consistent success relies on - having confidence in the players around you.
You May Say I'm a Dreamer - but just Imagine if it happened!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
I set playoff targets for each match back on August 9th, based on my forecasts of all 24 teams’ form.
I have now reset the remaining 18 game targets, based on our current position and every other team's seasons to date.
Table 1 shows the points achieved by 6th and 7th places over the last 6 years. 71 points would have been enough to beat 7th in every one of those years. 77 points would have been enough to at least match 6th place in 5 of those 6 years. So I am taking 71 points as a Playoff Possible total and 77 points as a Playoff Probable total.
Table 1:
Table 2 shows our final 18 games and 2 series of results that achieve those 71 and 77 point totals.
There is not an unrealistic result on this table – it is just achieving all of them that is the challenge.
Table 2:
Finally, Graph 1 plots our season so far, along with the above Table 2 paths to those final points targets.
When you look at that graph, the projection doesn’t look at all over-optimistic.
I will plot our progress on this graph after each game.
Graph 1:
On the xgPoints Tables we are currently 4th – so our general performance is already certainly Top 6.
Our Best 11 is developing some great partnerships – Hamer and O’Hare, Brooks and Seriki, Tanganga and Bindon, Bamford and Cannon, Riedewald and Peck.
That is what consistent success relies on - having confidence in the players around you.
You May Say I'm a Dreamer - but just Imagine if it happened!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
