The run in......

[Deadbat]

I have seen a few threads about respective run ins and who has arguable the toughest so thought I would summarise my thoughts and also can use this to check back and look at games as we move towards the end.

Hard to predict (us for instance losing to Hartlepool but winning at Bournemouth and our patchy home form). Also many of the top teams have had wobbles and noone has really been that consistent since Xmas (except maybe Yeovil). Many have had 2 or 3 wins then lost or drew a few and now any team that goes on a run of 5 or 6 wins may see that be enough....

There are quite a few of the top 7 playing each other and assuming Coventry and Walsall etc have too much to do; it means points will be dropped in games and there will be lots of twists and turns.

I will list the final games for the top 7 with the games in bold against each other (of the top 7) with a brief analysis.

Doncaster

Teams against top 7 = 4 (2 away / 2 home)

MK Dons (a)
Bournemouth (a)
Carlisle (h)
Portsmouth (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Coventry (a)
Swindon (h)
Tranmere (h)
Crewe (a)
Notts County (h)
Brentford (a)

Doncaster's run in looks tougher than ours as they have to go to Bournemouth and Brentford. They also have some tricky away games at MK Dons and Coventry. Scunny wont be pushovers in a derby. At home their games outside of Swindon/Tranmere look winnable as they play mid table teams and Pompey. I think they will lose a few but if they avoid defeat in the next two away games this week they will fancy their chances I feel.

Sheff Utd

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

MK Dons (h)
Crewe (a)
Stevenage (a)
Brentford (h)
Tranmere (a)
Carlisle (h)
Walsall (a)
Swindon (h)
Crawley (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Preston (h)

We of course have to go to Tranmere (who seem to be fading) but face games against Brentford and Swindon at home that could be huge really. Last season we failed to beat any of the top 3 at home and then ultimately chucked it away v Stevenage in the last home game. Can we change this round this season? I think we may start to turn around some of the home results and feel it will be games at places like Stevenage, Walsall and Crewe that could be deciding factors. Walsall have been beating most at home recently and we will hope they have cooled off by then. Our final 4 games sees 3 games at the Lane (hopefully 25,000+?) and after Swindon we play Crawley and Preston who both will have little to play for. With Pompey sandwiched in between thse two as the penultimate game; we could not on paper pick 3 better games to finish and if we are in the top 2 with 3 to play will fancy our chances but things dont always work out that way....


Swindon

Teams against top 7 = 3 (3 away / 1 home)

Walsall (h)
Brentford (a)
Yeovil (a)
Notts County (h)
Oldham (h)
Doncaster (a)
MK Dons (h)
Sheff Utd (a)
Crewe (h)
Stevenage (h)
Scunthorpe (a)


Swindon have a new manager and still on paper maybe have the strongest squad in the division. they certainly have a wealth of attacking talent and quite a bit of experience too. They have have a mixed run it too with games against 3 of the fellow top 7 and very tough games too against arguable the 3 biggest contenders outside of themselves for promotion (certainly on the current table). The rest of their games look ok with a tricky game v Walsall this week but then a lot of home games you would expect them to win. A lot will depend on where Scunny are for the final game and if they need to win to stay up. Their final 3 games like ours look winnable.

Brentford

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

Stevenage (a)
Carlisle (a)
Swindon (h)
Preston (a)
Sheff Utd (a)
Notts County (h)
MK Dons (h)
Coventry (a)
Crewe (a)
Portsmouth (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Doncaster (h)

Like us they have two home games against rivals and only one away (to us). Their run is similar to ours with a few awkward away games (namely Coventry) but some they ought to win. Their home games will be key as they have been strong at Griffin Park. After Coventry they will feel they have 3 games they can win with the bottom two to lay and then Donny at home which could be huge. With Wright Phillips aboard I expect them to score goals but they have a relatively young side so maybe pressure may get to them.

Yeovil

Teams against top 7 = 1 (1 home)

Hartlepool (a)
Crawley (h)
Swindon (h)
Carlisle (a)
Walsall (h)
Notts County (a)
Shrewsbury (h)
Stevenage (a)
Oldham (a)
Crewe (h)
Bury (a)

They have quietly kept winning and seem organised, hard to beat and very strong at home. Madden is scoring nearly every game and they have a few other very good, young players. The feeling is from many they wont get automatic but then you look at the run they have had and the fixtures they have left. On paper their run in is by far the easiest. They have some very easy games and play 8 of their last 11 against bottom half teams. They only have one game (and at home a relatively local derby they will be up for). I feel they may have a wobble as they have not really had one but then a look at above and especially the final 5 games and I would not be shocked if they went up. I suppose a few injuries and things at the moment the radar and noone seems to have worked out how to play against them. My dark horse for automatic.

Tranmere

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

Oldham (h)
Walsall (a)
MK Dons (a)
Stevenage (a)
Sheff Utd (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Doncaster (a)
Hartlepool (h)
Preston (a)
Bournemouth (h)


Still think they will fall away and have done in recent weeks with more defeats the than wins. They seem to have lost to the other teams at the top (Swindon at home / Yeovil away). They have lost many of the players that were key to the due to either injury or to them returning to parent clubs. They had a good win at Colchester the other week showing they can still do it occasionally but I feel if anyone does dip out it will be them. They have some games they should and could win in the run in but a few tough games at Doncaster and Bournemouth in the final run in. I fear they may win as many as they draw but lose as many as they win/draw if you know what I mean. Mixed form may see them just dip out.

Bournemouth

Teams against top 7 = 2 (1 away / 1 away)


Doncaster (h)
Stevenage (a)
Oldham (a)
Bury (h)
Colchester (a)
Scunthorpe (h)
Notts County (h)
Shrewsbury (a)
Carlisle (h)
Tranmere (a)


A few weeks ago they were my tip for the league. They had spent big, had goals in them and Howe had them flying. Now they have lost four straight and are out of the top 6. They face Doncaster and Bournemouth in the next and then final game. In between these games they have a lot of games you would expect them to win and the other 4 home games I would be surprised if they did not amass maximum points. Visits to Oldham, Colchester, Shrewsbury and Oldham will not exactly fill them with fear either. Next week is huge. If they can beat Donny and get back to winning ways then expect them to go on a run and challenge for automatic. If they lose another then they confidence wise they may take a big hit and be then feeling the playoffs is their best shot. After Yeovil the easiest run in for me though.

 

[Gavlar]

Cracking post deabat

so it looks like yeovil have the best chance on paper perhaps?

its gonna be really difficult to call, and looks like our win against yeovil at their place earlier in the season though
seen as a formality at the time (and I know they didnt hve madden then) could be a superb result.

if we keep up our away form and get draws at home we'll be up surely?!

 

[Peezablade]

Carlisle have a shocking set of games to play. A good outside bet for relegation.
Thanks Deadbat, great food for thought. It's still all if and buts and last season taught us that anything can happen.
One thing is for certain, we all need to make BDTBL such a noisy place that the 6 remaining visitors won't settle. It doesn't matter if there is 16k or over 20k we need to generate a positive atmosphere that lifts our lot and scares the poo out of the opposition.
They are all big games from here on in. Next up is Alan Smith, fresh from a 4 match suspension and roundly hated by all those who saw his big headed and arrogant goal celebration last season.

 

[JohnDenver]

Next up is Alan Smith, fresh from a 4 match suspension and roundly hated by all those who saw his big headed and arrogant goal celebration last season.

Fixed for you.

 

[Hodgyman]

A quality post Deadbat. Very informative and good analysis.

 

[Pinchy]

I stopped at "...they have some very easy games...." It betrays a very superficial and, sorry to say, naive approach.

Thanks for the effort and fixtures but the analysis is deeply flawed.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

I honestly wouldn't worry about it guys. We'll definitely win the league.

 

[Hartley Hare]

Solid analysis DB.

 

[Princess Annes Dog]

Great post Deadbat. Sounds easy predicting football matches but this time of the season it gets even tougher than usual. Teams at the bottom fighting to stay up, teams at the top feeling the heat, pretty much owt can happen. For us Blades? I hope against hope that we're the team hitting form at the right time and that this time we can keep the momentum going. Nobody can stop us but us in my opinion. The league's there for the taking, it's piss poor and if we're professional enough there's nobody there good enough to stop us.

Scares me to death our fate being in our own hands, with our track record it's going to be anything but clear cut till the very end but fingers crossed we'll make it this time.

 

[Ollessendro]

Interesting analysis Deadbat. But the most interesting part for me is just looking at all the fixtures and run in's for the teams. Means nowt to me though. Yeovil have the easiest run in, but can they sustain it? How will they react to a defeat? Like Donny or like Bournemouth? Swindon have always been my favourites, yet they have a new inexperienced manager. Their win on Saturday was massive though and with their strong team they could push on. Yet they have the worse set of fixtures. Brentford are a real danger, but are young and inexperienced. I think it would be naive to think they cannot finish top 2. Any of those 4 and us could quite easily win it or finish 2nd. Bournemouth and Tranmere should still not be discounted either.

There is one thing I am sure of and that is that it will go down to the wire. I said this last season and I will say it again, there will be twists and turns and nowt will be settled until late April. I think the top 5 will stay tight and cannot see any team running away with. I think there is a very good chance we will be in the top 2 (perhaps even first) come May, but we know SUFC will not do things the easy way. A lot of who goes up will come down to luck. Keeping players fit will be crucial for all teams as, as with the nature of football, a bit of luck regarding decisions and performances will be crucial. I change my mind each week as to who I think my biggest worry is. Still, the Blades have a great opportunity to push on and finish top 2. It really is in our hands.

 

[Trigger Blade]

I stopped at "...they have some very easy games...." It betrays a very superficial and, sorry to say, naive approach.

Thanks for the effort and fixtures but the analysis is deeply flawed.

Wow, Deadbat spends ages putting together a really interesting post and the best you can do is two lines of smugness. I'd have a bit more respect if you came up with some conclusions of your own. Personally, I have no idea what will happen, but I'm not conceited enough to tell anybody else they've got it wrong.

I think there is a very good chance we will be in the top 2 (perhaps even first) come May

Pinchy will be along later to tell you that as the league finishes in April, we'll definitely be promoted if we're in the top 2 come May

 

[Darren]

Our next 3 games are against teams with no serious hopes of the play offs and no serious fear of relegation. There are not many teams in that position around at this point of the season. In that period all of the other teams (apart from Tranmere and they play play off hopefuls Walsall and relegation threatened Oldham) play each other at least once.

This is a perfect opportunity to get maximum points from the next 3 games and open up a gap between us and third.

 

[Northyorksblade]

Which is exactly why we wont

 

[super_pig]

great post dB .. i was thinking of working this out so you save me the trouble
thing is the form book seems to be going out of the window.. with top teams regularly getting beaten by bottom ones, so i don't think it will go by the form book.. we just have to keep winning
funny thing is that everyone was saying we need two points per game average. i don't think they had win every away game and draw every home game in mind!! but who cares

 

[Selly]

Our next 3 games are against teams with no serious hopes of the play offs and no serious fear of relegation. There are not many teams in that position around at this point of the season. In that period all of the other teams (apart from Tranmere and they play play off hopefuls Walsall and relegation threatened Oldham) play each other at least once.

This is a perfect opportunity to get maximum points from the next 3 games and open up a gap between us and third.

Which is exactly why we wont

Au contraire, thats precisely why we will, then slowly get roped in until we drop to third after a draw with Portsmouth...

Before last season I didn`t think I could be any more pessimistic about SUFC, turns out I can...

 

[Coily]

Visits to Oldham, Colchester, Shrewsbury and Oldham will not exactly fill them with fear either.

If I had to go to Oldham twice, I'd be filled with not only fear but dread.

Interesting stuff Deadbat. What we can be sure of is that there will be surprises along the way. For example, Yeovil might not have been filled with fear for a trip to Colchester, but there were handily beaten.

You know what you'll get from other teams at the top, and those scrapping at the bottom will fight for their lives. As for the rest, some will lay down and die, others will play with more freedom and become more dangerous opponents.

It's in our hands, and our home form is key. My concern is whether we have a midfield who can up the tempo when required and unlock defences who defend their 18 yard line. Signs haven't been very good on that score.

 

[mattbianco1]

The odds are certainly stacked towards a red team winning it!!!

 

[mattbianco1]

Prediction time

Doncaster

Teams against top 7 = 4 (2 away / 2 home)

MK Dons (a) - W
Bournemouth (a) - D
Carlisle (h) - W
Portsmouth (h) - W
Scunthorpe (a) - W
Coventry (a) - D
Swindon (h) - L
Tranmere (h) - D
Crewe (a) - D
Notts County (h) - W
Brentford (a) - D

Total = 20pts

Sheff Utd

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

MK Dons (h) - D
Crewe (a) - D
Stevenage (a) - W
Brentford (h) - L
Tranmere (a) - W
Carlisle (h) - W
Walsall (a) - W
Swindon (h) - D
Crawley (h) - W
Portsmouth (a) - D
Preston (h) - W

Total = 22pts

Swindon

Teams against top 7 = 3 (3 away / 1 home)

Walsall (h) - W
Brentford (a) - D
Yeovil (a) - L
Notts County (h) - W
Oldham (h) - W
Doncaster (a) - W
MK Dons (h) - W
Sheff Utd (a) - D
Crewe (h) - W
Stevenage (h) - D
Scunthorpe (a) - W

Total = 24pts

Brentford

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

Stevenage (a) - D
Carlisle (a) - W
Swindon (h) - D
Preston (a) - D
Sheff Utd (a) - W
Notts County (h) - W
MK Dons (h) - W
Coventry (a) - D
Crewe (a) - D
Portsmouth (h) - D
Hartlepool (a) - L
Doncaster (h) - D

Total = 19pts

Yeovil

Teams against top 7 = 1 (1 home)

Hartlepool (a) - D
Crawley (h) - W
Swindon (h) - W
Carlisle (a) - L
Walsall (h) - D
Notts County (a) - D
Shrewsbury (h) - W
Stevenage (a) - W
Oldham (a) - W
Crewe (h) - L
Bury (a) - W

Total = 21pts

Tranmere

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

Oldham (h) - W
Walsall (a) - W
MK Dons (a) - D
Stevenage (a) - W
Sheff Utd (h) - L
Portsmouth (a) - W
Doncaster (a) - D
Hartlepool (h) - W
Preston (a) - W
Bournemouth (h) - W

Total = 23pts

Bournemouth

Teams against top 7 = 2 (1 away / 1 away)


Doncaster (h) - D
Stevenage (a) - D
Oldham (a) - W
Bury (h) - W
Colchester (a) - W
Scunthorpe (h) - W
Notts County (h) - W
Shrewsbury (a) - D
Carlisle (h) - W
Tranmere (a) - L

Total = 21pts

So based around a five minute guestimate, "if" my maths serve me right the table will finish as follows...

Swindon 86pts (GD)
Sheff Utd 86
________________
Doncaster 85
Tranmere 83
Yeovil 82
Brentford 80
________________
Bournemouth 79

Play Offs - Semis

Doncaster vs. Brentford
Tranmere vs. Yeovil

Final

Doncaster vs. Tranmere

Winners - Doncaster

 

[mattbianco1]

My predictions, if correct also see us going into the last game in 3rd !!

 

[Deadbat]

I stopped at "...they have some very easy games...." It betrays a very superficial and, sorry to say, naive approach.

Thanks for the effort and fixtures but the analysis is deeply flawed.

You are right in a way. Games are not played on paper but without debating such things we would not have much to talk about! I am sure some of the games I termed as 'easier' will not be for teams. Maybe my analyis is flawed but still thought it was worth a look at the run ins and see who 'may' have it a little easier than others.

Maybe I should have said more winnable but in football you cannot say anythign for certain so thats is all it is, some thoughs and analysis. Will I be wrong. Probably but if nobody said nothing we would all be sat on a big fence.

 

[grafikhaus]

One thing is for certain, we all need to make BDTBL such a noisy place that the 6 remaining visitors won't settle. It doesn't matter if there is 16k or over 20k we need to generate a positive atmosphere that lifts our lot and scares the poo out of the opposition.

And that - surely - is down to DW. No more of this letting the first half (and beyond) drift by. Down that tunnel and at their throats from the off. I doubt if DW possesses that kind of drive, so over to the skipper and Morgan.

And although an optimistic metaphor, Spurs showed yesterday that if you steam into the opponents' area, good things can come in the way of penalties, deflections etc. For too long, we've been too timid to do this. I know we haven't got Spurs' attacking talent, but neither are we up against Arsenals defence and the piss poor refs. will be swayed by fouls and shouts from the crowd.

 

[Bladesman]

Win our games and fuck the rest.

Do not give a crap about other teams run ins we spent too long last season wondering what Udders and the Oinkers were doing. Beat the teams around us at home and it should be job done and bye bye this league.

 

[Pinchy]

You are right in a way. Games are not played on paper but without debating such things we would not have much to talk about! I am sure some of the games I termed as 'easier' will not be for teams. Maybe my analyis is flawed but still thought it was worth a look at the run ins and see who 'may' have it a little easier than others.

Maybe I should have said more winnable but in football you cannot say anythign for certain so thats is all it is, some thoughs and analysis. Will I be wrong. Probably but if nobody said nothing we would all be sat on a big fence.

I certainly haven't sat on the fence. I have been saying for months that Tranmere won't finish in the top two, even when they led us by 8 points - they won't.

I have also consistently said that Donny won't go up automatically, even now when they are top of the table. They won't.

Here's another one: Yeovil - absolutely no chance.

I don't need to look at fixtures and statistics, though I'm thankful for your compilation. It's just a judgement call that the teams mentioned are simply not good enough.

It would be interesting for you to identify Yeovil's very easy games and see how easy they prove to be!

 

[Gavlar]

I honestly wouldn't worry about it guys. We'll definitely win the league.

I love the optimism!

 

[GAZBLADE]

Win our games and fuck the rest.

Do not give a crap about other teams run ins we spent too long last season wondering what Udders and the Oinkers were doing. Beat the teams around us at home and it should be job done and bye bye this league.

love it Bladesman. Short, sweet and to the point. That's exactly how i'm trying to look at the, 'Run in!'

 

[blade too long]

games against teams avoiding relegation can be harder than playing teams in the mix , at least you expect a tough game v brentford and the like, football at all levels is so unpredictable, we could win 9 out of 11 and still miss out or win just 5 or 6 and squeak into 2nd, we just have to , as the old adage says take it one game at a time
win all 11 would be the least stressful option , but its unlikely, not impossible , but not the united way

 

[Pinchy]

Prediction time

Doncaster

Teams against top 7 = 4 (2 away / 2 home)

MK Dons (a) - W
Bournemouth (a) - D
Carlisle (h) - W
Portsmouth (h) - W
Scunthorpe (a) - W
Coventry (a) - D
Swindon (h) - L
Tranmere (h) - D
Crewe (a) - D
Notts County (h) - W
Brentford (a) - D

Total = 20pts

Sheff Utd

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

MK Dons (h) - D
Crewe (a) - D
Stevenage (a) - W
Brentford (h) - L
Tranmere (a) - W
Carlisle (h) - W
Walsall (a) - W
Swindon (h) - D
Crawley (h) - W
Portsmouth (a) - D
Preston (h) - W

Total = 22pts

Swindon

Teams against top 7 = 3 (3 away / 1 home)

Walsall (h) - W
Brentford (a) - D
Yeovil (a) - L
Notts County (h) - W
Oldham (h) - W
Doncaster (a) - W
MK Dons (h) - W
Sheff Utd (a) - D
Crewe (h) - W
Stevenage (h) - D
Scunthorpe (a) - W

Total = 24pts

Brentford

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

Stevenage (a) - D
Carlisle (a) - W
Swindon (h) - D
Preston (a) - D
Sheff Utd (a) - W
Notts County (h) - W
MK Dons (h) - W
Coventry (a) - D
Crewe (a) - D
Portsmouth (h) - D
Hartlepool (a) - L
Doncaster (h) - D

Total = 19pts

Yeovil

Teams against top 7 = 1 (1 home)

Hartlepool (a) - D
Crawley (h) - W
Swindon (h) - W
Carlisle (a) - L
Walsall (h) - D
Notts County (a) - D
Shrewsbury (h) - W
Stevenage (a) - W
Oldham (a) - W
Crewe (h) - L
Bury (a) - W

Total = 21pts

Tranmere

Teams against top 7 = 3 (1 away / 2 home)

Oldham (h) - W
Walsall (a) - W
MK Dons (a) - D
Stevenage (a) - W
Sheff Utd (h) - L
Portsmouth (a) - W
Doncaster (a) - D
Hartlepool (h) - W
Preston (a) - W
Bournemouth (h) - W

Total = 23pts

Bournemouth

Teams against top 7 = 2 (1 away / 1 away)


Doncaster (h) - D
Stevenage (a) - D
Oldham (a) - W
Bury (h) - W
Colchester (a) - W
Scunthorpe (h) - W
Notts County (h) - W
Shrewsbury (a) - D
Carlisle (h) - W
Tranmere (a) - L

Total = 21pts

So based around a five minute guestimate, "if" my maths serve me right the table will finish as follows...

Swindon 86pts (GD)
Sheff Utd 86
________________
Doncaster 85
Tranmere 83
Yeovil 82
Brentford 80
________________
Bournemouth 79

Play Offs - Semis

Doncaster vs. Brentford
Tranmere vs. Yeovil

Final

Doncaster vs. Tranmere

Winners - Doncaster

You have every single team, I think, performing well above their average for the season. That doesn't and won't happen.

For example, I'll give you a pound for every point Tranmere get above 15 if you'll give me a pound for every point they fall short of 23!

You've awarded a total of at least 20 points more than the teams will actually get, between them. Any team achieving 86 points will be high and dry as Champions.

 

[blade too long]

yes might be 82 is enough , way things are going

 

[Selly]

I certainly haven't sat on the fence. I have been saying for months that Tranmere won't finish in the top two, even when they led us by 8 points - they won't.

I have also consistently said that Donny won't go up automatically, even now when they are top of the table. They won't.

Here's another one: Yeovil - absolutely no chance.

I don't need to look at fixtures and statistics, though I'm thankful for your compilation. It's just a judgement call that the teams mentioned are simply not good enough.

It would be interesting for you to identify Yeovil's very easy games and see how easy they prove to be!

Go on then, neck on the line. Top two at the end of the season????

 

[pommpey]

Go on then, neck on the line. Top two at the end of the season????

Sheff Utd and Swindon. Us by two points, them on goal difference.

I think Doncaster have a four or five match dip in form that will cost them. But it will be close.

Next lot Doncaster, Bournemouth, Yeovil and Tranmere. Tranmere in by a gnat's pube.

Playoff winners Doncaster.

I don't even want to contemplate us in the playoffs. It is NOT an option.

pommpey