Compared with last season...

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metalblade said:
I wish that graph would start at zero pts and zero games, would setting the values of cells A1,B2 and C3 to zero fix it ?
Click to expand...

Aaaagh! I'm suffering enough! Seriously mb, I reckon the graph is fine - the vertical lines represent the actual game played. It's a moot point anyway, as personally I don't have a much faith in comparing fixture v fixture (last season and this) as, for example, Swindon and Bournemouth are far stronger this season and are teams we must beat.

Perhaps more significantly, I think our current position is extremely precarious, and a run of bad results could see us plummet very quickly. Most teams below us have a game in hand.

Tin hat time...
 
The "games in hand" for all the teams just below us are all against tough opponents, so whilst we may drop a little, maybe a place or two, I doubt we will "plummet" very quickly.

Keep up the good work, and I hope you are fully recovered soon.
 
grafikhaus said:
Aaaagh! I'm suffering enough! Seriously mb, I reckon the graph is fine - the vertical lines represent the actual game played. It's a moot point anyway, as personally I don't have a much faith in comparing fixture v fixture (last season and this) as, for example, Swindon and Bournemouth are far stronger this season and are teams we must beat.

Perhaps more significantly, I think our current position is extremely precarious, and a run of bad results could see us plummet very quickly. Most teams below us have a game in hand.

Tin hat time...
Click to expand...

On the compared versus last season point. Firstly we did not play Swindon last season(!?) and whilst I agree Bournemouth are stronger, Carlisle are much weaker. Swindon and Crawley are much better than the teams than the teams thatwent down, yet Pompey and Coventry are a lot worse than the Pigs and Charlton. Brentofrd are stronger, yet MK Dons are clearly not as good. The point of the comparing direct results versus last season is that it is another indicator. It offers more insight to put that and your analysis together.

I do not think our league position is any more preacrious than any other time. If all the teams in the top 7 win their games in hand we'll still be 2nd and a point behind the leaders (with them to play at home at some point). It would make things very tight at the top, but they already are pretty tight. I agree that we should not get carried away (I think that is the sentiment you wanted to put across) but it is nice to be sitting top regardless. The last statement is a tad bizarre. Of course a bad run of results would see us plummet quickly. Just as a good run of results would keep us up near the top.
 
Ollessendro said:
On the compared versus last season point. Firstly we did not play Swindon last season(!?) and whilst I agree Bournemouth are stronger, Carlisle are much weaker. Swindon and Crawley are much better than the teams than the teams thatwent down, yet Pompey and Coventry are a lot worse than the Pigs and Charlton. Brentofrd are stronger, yet MK Dons are clearly not as good. The point of the comparing direct results versus last season is that it is another indicator. It offers more insight to put that and your analysis together.

I do not think our league position is any more preacrious than any other time. If all the teams in the top 7 win their games in hand we'll still be 2nd and a point behind the leaders (with them to play at home at some point). It would make things very tight at the top, but they already are pretty tight. I agree that we should not get carried away (I think that is the sentiment you wanted to put across) but it is nice to be sitting top regardless. The last statement is a tad bizarre. Of course a bad run of results would see us plummet quickly. Just as a good run of results would keep us up near the top.
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Bizarre? Moi? :D

Some excellent points there, Olle. The point I'm trying to make is, although we're top it's only nine points to ninth place. Yes, I know if mi auntie was my uncle etc. but it shows how much our poor home form is costing.
And stop picking on me. I'm ill!

table.jpg

Oh, and note the box in red at the bottom!
 
The most interesting statistic there is that you have to go as far down as Oldham in 17th to find a team that has scored fewer goals away from home than us!
 
A few more bizarre comments being thrown around!?

grafikhaus only Brentford and MK Dons have better home records than us. Brentford's could be significantly better than ours if they win their game in hand, but MK just have 2 more points from their home games. Both teams have been relatively poor on the road though (unlike SUFC). I agree that things are tight at the top though (and could be tighter if rivals win games in hand). We have not lost at home since Oldham in early March (take note for an interesting stat BusheyBlade) so the Lane is actually somewhat of a fortress. Averaging 2 points a game at home is not great, but nor is it the end of the world. I suppose it does put pressure on us pick up points away from home, though we are doing that at the moment.

I think that all of the top 6 in with a chance of automatic. You could even throw in County, Bournemouth and Coventry with an outside chance. My pointless analysis (see attachment) shows that at this stage teams can come from outside the top 6 at this stage, to go on to get automatic promotion (though it is rare). 2/3 of the time teams that are top now go on to win it, but the team in 2nd going up just under half the time. History suggests that a team currently in the play off zone is in with a good chance of going up automatic too.

Just over half way through the season I think it is too difficult to call. Despite seeing a good few teams, watching plenty of games, reading reports, listening to opinions, speaking to opposition fans, doing a bit of research/analysis and looking at analysis on this thread, it is way too close to call on which two teams will go up automatically. This time last season it was obvious that it was Charlton plus us, Wednesday or Huddersfield (possibly MK Dons) would go up automatic. This year I think you could be looking at any combo of us, Tranmere, Donny, Brentford, Swindon, MK Dons and possibly Bournemouth, County and Coventry for filling the top 2 places. It is going to be really interesting to see how it pans out.

Interestingly, a bit of historical analysis suggests that achieving our current projected points would gives us between a 77-93% chance of getting automatic and a 58-67% chance of winning the league. Ok, that is far too much geeking it up for today ..... time for a beer!!
 

Attachments

The trouble is, that however much you analyse our chances of going up, the one thing you haven't factored in, is the number of ways that United can cock it up. Look out for yet another way, round about March/April. :( Pessimistic? Moi?
 
Ollessendro said:
It is a bit of a confusing concept, as last season after 24 games we had 47 points and this season we have 46. Though last season we were third and this season we are 1st (though Brentford would be top if they win their game in hand). However we have not played the same games as last season: that is we have played the same teams (bar promoted and relegated teams) but not in the same order.

There is a clever system that is around that SellyOakBlade introduced to this thread, where we basically compare the fixtures this year with the exact fixtures last year (when possible). You can then compare the points we achieved and this gives the compared to last season figures. For the relegated and promoted teams of last year you add up all the points we got and divide by 3 or 4 (respectively) to get an average and apply it to the newly promoted ot relegated teams of last season*.

It is a fact that from the equivalent games from last season we are doing better this season. However to carry on matching this we will be expected to do the same in the equivalent games going forward. This would mean for example beating MK Dons and Brentford at home (like we did last season) and Notts County and Bournemouth away (again like we did last season). So you should be able to see that there are a few tricky games where it may be difficult to match last season. However we already have a 3 point cushion to play with (so to speak).




* against relegated teams last season (Exeter, Wycombe, Chesterfield and Rochdale) we: at home D, W, W, W meaning 10/4 = 2.5 and away D, L, W, W = 7/4= 1.75. These results should be compared to the teams that came up. Against promoted teams from last season (Charlton, Pigs, Udders) we: at home L, D, L = 1/3 = 0.33 and away L, L, W = 3/3 = 3.

So the last 3 games this season were Tranmere at home (D), Crawley away (1.75) and Scunthorpe at home (W). As our results from thee games were D, W and W we are up 1.25 points from those games. The next 3 games are Hartlepool at home (last season we won), Donny away (1) and Yeovil at home (W). So to match last season we need to beat Hartlepool and Yeovil and draw at Donny.
Click to expand...

Don't worry you where right I checked after I said that
 
Now +0.83 for the season. Need a point at Donny o maintain that (I think, spreadsheet at work)
 

grafikhaus said:
It's a (fuckin') fanny old game. Excellent, Blades. Possible turning point of the season.
View attachment 5487
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83 is Olle's magic number!!! ;) Nice work graffy owd mucker.

SellyOakBlade said:
Now +0.83 for the season. Need a point at Donny o maintain that (I think, spreadsheet at work)
Click to expand...

Yep, a point today and that leaves us still on +0.83 from the equivalent games from last season. We have a bit of a break now, but then Yeovil at home, Notts County away and Bury away. We won all 3 of those last season! Of course that means we need to win the next 3 league games (do able but a tough task) to maintain this tally. Then we have Crawley at home(+2.5). It is going to be interesting to see how we are doing in comparison to last season at the end of January.
 
Heres the updated list to the end of Feb

Last Season Oppo 12-13 Points Change Oppo
AUG 18 Shrewsbury (H) R 2.50 3 0.50
AUG 21 Coventry (A) P 1.00 1 0.00
AUG 25 Colchester (A) 1.00 1 0.00
SEP 1 Bournemouth (H) 3.00 3 0.00
SEP 8 Scunthorpe (A) 1.00 1 0.00
SEP 15 Bury (H) 3.00 1 -2.00
SEP 18 Doncaster (H) P 0.33 1 0.67
SEP 22 Yeovil (A) 3.00 3 0.00
SEP 29 Notts County (H) 3.00 1 -2.00
OCT 2 Hartlepool (A) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 6 Leyton Orient (A) 1.00 3 2.00
OCT 13 Oldham (H) 0.00 1 1.00
OCT 20 Preston (A) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 23 Walsall (H) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 27 Portsmouth (H) P 0.33 3 2.67
NOV 6 Swindon (A) R 1.75 1 -0.75
NOV 10 MK Dons (A) 0.00 0 0.00
NOV 17 Stevenage (H) 1.00 3 2.00
NOV 20 Crewe (H) R 2.50 1 -1.50
NOV 24 Brentford (A) 3.00 0 -3.00
DEC 8 Carlisle (A) 0.00 3 3.00
DEC 15 Tranmere (H) 1.00 1 0.00
DEC 22 Crawley (A) R 1.75 3 1.25
DEC 26 Scunthorpe (H) 3.00 3 0.00
DEC 29 Hartlepool (H) 3.00 0 -3.00
JAN 1 Doncaster (A) P 1.00 1 0.00
JAN 12 Yeovil (H) 3.00
JAN 19 Notts County (A) 3.00
JAN 22 Bury (A) 3.00
JAN 26 Crawley (H) R 2.50
FEB 1 Coventry (H) P 0.33
FEB 9 Shrewsbury (A) R 1.75
FEB 16 Colchester (H) 3.00
FEB 23 Bournemouth (A) 3.00
FEB 26 Leyton Orient (H) 3.00

Nort a lot of scope for slip ups, if we want to maintain arity with last season.
 
SellyOakBlade said:
JAN 12 Yeovil (H) 3.00
JAN 19 Notts County (A) 3.00
JAN 22 Bury (A) 3.00
JAN 26 Crawley (H) R 2.50
FEB 1 Coventry (H) P 0.33
FEB 9 Shrewsbury (A) R 1.75
FEB 16 Colchester (H) 3.00
FEB 23 Bournemouth (A) 3.00
FEB 26 Leyton Orient (H) 3.00

Nort a lot of scope for slip ups, if we want to maintain arity with last season.
Click to expand...

Good work Selly. Our +0.83 margin looks a little slender looking at those fixtures. As you say there is not a lot of largin for error, starting with the next 4 games. The away trips to County and Bournemouth will be more tricky than last year and we need to be more clinical/consistent at home against some pretty average/poor teams. We need to take 22 points from the next available 27 to maintain our record, which is quite a big ask. It would mean much better than average form.

I have added the fixtures after, until the end of the season. I was just intersted to see if Jan and Feb was a particularly difficult period. However that is not the case. It just happens that from March onwards there is little margin for error as well. This should probably not come as a surprise (with us on a lower points tally than last season at this point and with our projected points being much lower) however it just highlights United did particularly well in the equivalent games we have to play this season, last season. We are looking at taking 21 points from a possible 33 to ensure that we are on track (so to speak).

Mar 2 Oldham (A) 3
Mar 9 MK Dons (H) 3
Mar 12 Crewe (A) 1.75
Mar 16 Stevenage (A) 0
Mar 23 Brentford (H) 3
Mar 29 Tranmere (A) 1
Apr 1 Carlisle (H) 3
6 Apr Walsall (A) 0
Apr 13 Swindon (H) 2.5
Apr 20 Pompey (A) 1
Apr 27 PNE (H) 3

To match last seasons results we need to get 43 from the final 20 games. So we would be looking at a higher than 2 point average from these games. It is worth noting that we might not need thus number to finish top 2 and getting 35+ points could be enough. However it suggests that we need to improve for the 2nd half of the season. The analysis (imo) suggests that the +0.83 might be slightly misleading and that we have a tough 2nd half of the season ahead if we want to match last seasons results. It will be interesting to see how things pan out regardless.
 
After 26 games last season, the team in 2nd had 53 points.

This season, the most anyone can have, if they win the games in hand, is 50.

This projects to a 5 point shortfall by the end of the season (3/26 = 0.11 * 46 = 5.3)

That would indicate that the team in second will get circa 88 points this season.

After 26 games last season, the team in 3rd had 50 points. (Although games in hand mean that it was potentially 52)

This season, the most anyone can have, if they win the games in hand, is 49.

This projects to a 5 point shortfall by the end of the season (3/26 = 0.11 * 46 = 5.3)

That would indicate that the team in third will get circa 85 points this season.

Basically, 83 points may not be enough...
 
SellyOakBlade said:
After 26 games last season, the team in 2nd had 53 points.

This season, the most anyone can have, if they win the games in hand, is 50.

This projects to a 5 point shortfall by the end of the season (3/26 = 0.11 * 46 = 5.3)

That would indicate that the team in second will get circa 88 points this season.

After 26 games last season, the team in 3rd had 50 points. (Although games in hand mean that it was potentially 52)

This season, the most anyone can have, if they win the games in hand, is 49.

This projects to a 5 point shortfall by the end of the season (3/26 = 0.11 * 46 = 5.3)

That would indicate that the team in third will get circa 85 points this season.

Basically, 83 points may not be enough...
Click to expand...

Ooh er missus.

Mathematically SU can get 107 points, Doncaster 110 points, Brentford 109 points, Swindon 108 points. So just on potential we are currently in the play offs. However it is probably a good idea to see who has to play who in the games in hand and what the respective teams are like home and away.

Donny have to play MK at home and so far comparing both teams the points per game suggest the result would be a draw. So revising the above that puts Donny on max 109 points.

Brentford have to play Stevenage at home. Both are very good points/game the Bees 2.25 (H), Stevenage 1.92 (A). I think this will be a draw, giving Brentford 107 points max.

Swindon have to play Colchester (A) and Orient (A). Swindon's away form is slightly better than United's and on the stats it would indicate that out of these two they'll beat the U's and probabnly draw at Orient. So that's 106 points.

Now one needs to factor in the games against each other. We have to entertain Brentford and Swindon at home. History suggests that we'll probably beat both so that gives Brentford 104 points and Swindon 102 points. Even if they are draws this gives Brentford 106 points and Swindon 105 points.

So unravelling all that lot given our nearest challengers the max United are likely to get is 105 - 107 points, Donny 109 points, Brentford 104 - 106 points and Swindon 102 - 105 points.

So what does this tosh tell us. At the moment United are realistically in third place and need to up the results.
I think the test comes when Bomo lose. Will they recover next game as Dan the man has achieved or will they go on a mini slump? If they hold it together they are my tip for Champions with Tranmere. I think Donny's good away record will deteriorate and Brentford and Swindon will continue in the same vein.

In some ways it is very exciting but on the whole United have to up the game now, tighten up in defence and create and score more goals. This will see us up auto. I don't think we even want to mention the Play Off route.

Happy New Year
 
BladeFisher said:
Donny have to play MK at home and so far comparing both teams the points per game suggest the result would be a draw. So revising the above that puts Donny on max 109 points.
Click to expand...


surely Donny's max would be 108 then?
 
Highbury_Blade said:
surely Donny's max would be 108 then?
Click to expand...

Ah too much pop (I wish) you're spot on Highbury. But would still give Donny one more point than us.

Gut feel I think points towards Swindon, Bournemouth and Tranmere with United fourth best out of that lot so far. If we can score a few more goals without a corresponding increase in goals conceded we'll be up there. However away at Bomo will be interesting. Though I fancy we'll win at Tranmere. Methinks Donny will fade away, away from home but whether this is matched by improved home performances we'll have to see.
 
Please! Can we just wait and see what happens? We know we have many, many ways of cocking it up. I now never look at who is playing whom in the division, just wait to see how we've done before looking at other results. As we know bottom can beat top, so it's all pointless. BUT having said that I love Grafik's graph
 
Seeing as this kind of analysis seems to go down well I came across this recently from the excellent @experimental361. It's a minute by minute analysis of the leagues and shows what positions teams would be if the match only last 1,2,3 ... minutes, you get the idea. Personally I'd take the table after 67 minutes that has up top and Pigs relegated. :)

http://experimental361.com/2012/12/17/video-minute-by-minute-tables/

There are also more stats than you can shake a stick at here.

http://experimental361.com/category/league-1/


Enjoy!
 
ten home 10 away
24-27 points out of 30 at home
means 16-19 from possible 30 away
do able

think we can get 20 plus away , which allows more lee way at home
 

Northyorksblade said:
Please! Can we just wait and see what happens? We know we have many, many ways of cocking it up. I now never look at who is playing whom in the division, just wait to see how we've done before looking at other results. As we know bottom can beat top, so it's all pointless. BUT having said that I love Grafik's graph
Click to expand...

Us stats geeks cannot help it. Let us have our fun. We all know that SUFC will fook it up!!!

Our projected points is 83. If we continue with the 1.83 points tally of 2012 (
http://www.s24su.com/forum/index.php?threads/no-wonder-i-started-going-to-game-again.28840/ ) then we would pick up a further 33 points.Adding that together and we get 47+33 = 80. So taking a longer sample it appears we are on for a mid 80's finish.

In fact, going back and looking at the first half of the season (http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2011-2012/table/2011-12-31) SUFC got 47 points from 23 league games. Wilson was averaging over 2 points a game for that period. Recreating something like that would give us 83 points.

This season we have 47 points from 26 meaning a 1.81 tally. Does that mean that his results are getting slightly worse? From 2.04 to 1.86 to 1.81. A similar average fall would put us on 1.69. That would give us 30 points from the remaining games and a 77 tally, almost certainly falling just short.

With Donny and Brentford having projected points tallies of 86.48 points and Swindon on prjected tally of 84.92 then the question is whether those teams can sustain it until the end. The morale of the story seems to be that we need to pick ouf form up in the last 18 games to win. Even getting 2 points a game (a very good average) might not secure things.

super_pig said:
actually it's bournemouth and coventry i've got my eye on
Click to expand...

Looking at Swindon's goal difference they might actually be the team to worry about.
 
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