The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

[travellingblade]

With most of the bottom clubs winning, we still need 14 points to mathematically avoid relegation (Exeter can only achieve 75), but I think we are away below the total needed to avoid relegation (about 52 points).

 

[dannycorker]

Will get it updated now - first time I've been back at the computer since the game!

---------- Post added at 09:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 AM ----------

OK for some reason i can't edit my first post anymore :S So here are the relevant numbers now:

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 36 = 2.25 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 12 = 0.74 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 43 = 2.69 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 42 = 2.63 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 1.12 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 116
Sheff Utd - 110
Huddersfield - 103
Stevenage - 102
MK Dons - 100
Wednesday - 99

Projected Points

Charlton - 104
Sheff Utd - 95
Huddersfield - 84
Wednesday - 81
Stevenage - 79
MK Dons - 79

Things are looking even nicer now aren't they? I think my favourite number is our PROJECTED points of 95 is now only 4 under the MAXIMUM points Wednesday can achieve of 99. And seeing as they're going to lose on Sunday, they have no chance anymore

I also like how we're now closer to Charlton than Huddersfield are to us on the same games played. Top place is ours for the taking if we keep it up. The only annoying thing is that if we'd beat Charlton at their place (or ours) we'd be sitting top on goal difference now!

 

[Selly]

When do you intend to produce an update after yesterday's matches?

The Automatic Promotion number hasn't changed, because Huddersfield weren't playing yesterday, but the Champions number reduced by 2 to 58 (still not achieveable), because of Charlton's failure to win, whilst we did win.

Have updated my spreadsheet.

The Auto promotion Magic Number does change, as we got 3 points, so we now need 3 points less...

  	             	  	   	       	Champ	Prom 	P-O  	Proj  	Avg pos	Avg pos
  	Team         	P 	PTS	Max Pts	Magic	Magic	Magic	Total 	Home   	Away   
1 	Charlton     	30	68 	116    	43   	36   	30   	104.32	15.33  	12.86  
2 	Sheffield Utd	30	62 	110    	55   	42   	36   	94.05 	15     	12.78  
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
3 	Sheffield Wed	32	57 	99     	60   	54   	41   	83.07 	13.5   	12.33  
4 	Huddersfield 	30	55 	103    	62   	56   	43   	83.79 	12.86  	13.33  
5 	MK Dons      	30	52 	100    	65   	59   	46   	80.29 	13.89  	16.57  
6 	Stevenage    	28	48 	102    	69   	63   	50   	78.79 	12.9   	12.5   
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
7 	Carlisle     	29	46 	97     	71   	65   	54   	72.72 	13.63  	10.56  
8 	Bournemouth  	32	44 	86     	73   	67   	56   	63.14 	8.5    	10.33  
9 	Hartlepool   	31	41 	86     	76   	70   	59   	61.14 	10.86  	14     
10	Brentford    	29	40 	91     	77   	71   	60   	63.52 	11.88  	12.56  
11	Notts County 	30	40 	88     	77   	71   	60   	62.84 	10.89  	15.57  
12	Colchester   	29	39 	90     	78   	72   	61   	61.55 	9.75   	13.67  
13	Preston      	30	39 	87     	78   	72   	61   	59.8  	12.38  	11.25  
14	Bury         	30	39 	87     	78   	72   	61   	59.96 	14     	7.86   
15	Leyton Orient	30	38 	86     	79   	73   	62   	59.14 	12.86  	12     
16	Yeovil       	32	36 	78     	81   	75   	64   	51.05 	14.67  	8.5    
17	Oldham       	28	35 	89     	82   	76   	65   	57.5  	12.22  	11.11  
18	Tranmere     	31	34 	79     	83   	77   	66   	49.93 	13.29  	14.63  
19	Exeter       	32	33 	75     	84   	78   	67   	47.44 	13.57  	12.29  
20	Scunthorpe   	29	31 	82     	86   	80   	69   	49.29 	12.63  	12.44  
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
21	Chesterfield 	31	27 	72     	90   	84   	73   	40.44 	12.88  	11.57  
22	Rochdale     	30	27 	75     	90   	84   	73   	41.4  	12.38  	10.75  
23	Wycombe      	31	26 	71     	91   	85   	74   	38.24 	10.86  	13.5   
24	Walsall      	30	25 	73     	92   	86   	75   	38.33 	11.88  	12.25

 

[anglian blade]

With most of the bottom clubs winning, we still need 14 points to mathematically avoid relegation (Exeter can only achieve 75), but I think we are away below the total needed to avoid relegation (about 52 points).

We are already mathematically safe from relegation- there are not enough points available from the remaining fixtures for 19 teams to overtake us

 

[stannyblade]

Foxy/Linz would it be possible to make this a sticky so its easy to find for us all please?

 

[Wapping Blade]

Brentford's win last night moved us 3 point closer to the Play-Off Magic Number

 

[Deleted member 875]

At the start of the season, my calculation roughly compromised that 90 points would enough to get us up, and that over a season it would roughly equate to 2 points a game.

So i've been measuring our progress in a roundabout way by working out how many games are remaining, how many points we would end up if we got 2 points per game and how we stand.

So a par score would be 58 points, with 32 points needed from 16 games, however to stay at par we need to 28 points from the last 16 games. So by that calculation we are 4 points ahead of where we need to be.

So now the following permutation of results would work for us to reach that par score.

W9 D1 L6
W8 D4 L4
W7 D8 L1.

 

[Darren]

post: 392912"]At the start of the season, my calculation roughly compromised that 90 points would enough to get us up, and that over a season it would roughly equate to 2 points a game.

So i've been measuring our progress in a roundabout way by working out how many games are remaining, how many points we would end up if we got 2 points per game and how we stand.

So a par score would be 58 points, with 32 points needed from 16 games, however to stay at par we need to 28 points from the last 16 games. So by that calculation we are 4 points ahead of where we need to be.

So now the following permutation of results would work for us to reach that par score.

W9 D1 L6
W8 D4 L4
W7 D8 L1.

Your last one should be W7 D7 L2.

I reckon we need 4 wins to be sure of the play offs and 10 wins to be sure of automatic. We can lose the rest

 

[Deleted member 875]

Good point.

A worry is if we stop winning games and picking up draw's, as even a couple of draws can be costly in the promotion race.

If we draw on Sunday and Huddersfield pick up a win, then they are suddenly within 3 points of us again.

 

[dannycorker]

post: 392918"]Good point.

A worry is if we stop winning games and picking up draw's, as even a couple of draws can be costly in the promotion race.

If we draw on Sunday and Huddersfield pick up a win, then they are suddenly within 3 points of us again.

You mean 5 points? Even if we lose, and all the results go against us we'll be 2 points above Wednesday with 2 games in hand and 4 points above Hudders with the same games played. For the rest of the season, this weekend isn't important. What's important is maintaining the form we've had against the lower sides and avoiding all the draws that Hudders seem to manage against them!

 

[Selly]

post: 392912"]At the start of the season, my calculation roughly compromised that 90 points would enough to get us up, and that over a season it would roughly equate to 2 points a game.

So i've been measuring our progress in a roundabout way by working out how many games are remaining, how many points we would end up if we got 2 points per game and how we stand.

So a par score would be 58 points, with 32 points needed from 16 games, however to stay at par we need to 28 points from the last 16 games. So by that calculation we are 4 points ahead of where we need to be.

So now the following permutation of results would work for us to reach that par score.

W9 D1 L6
W8 D4 L4
W7 D8 L1.

If teams accumulate points as they have throughout teh season so far, the most any team below will get is Hudds with around 84 points.

So 92 will see us up with room to spare. Of course Hudds run-in may be like Southamptons last year (W14, D1, L2), but if we match them, we'll still go up...

 

[dannycorker]

Minor update after Charlton drew last night.

EDIT: Updated to reflect Stevenage losing last night.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 35 = 2.33 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 11 = 0.72 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 42 = 2.80 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 42 = 2.63 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 1.12 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 114
Sheff Utd - 110
Huddersfield - 103
MK Dons - 100
Stevenage - 99
Wednesday - 99

Projected Points

Charlton - 102
Sheff Utd - 95
Huddersfield - 84
Wednesday - 82
MK Dons - 82
Stevenage - 76

 

[dannycorker]

OK all up to date and added in magic/projected targets for everyone, even where it's not technically possible.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 35 = 2.33 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 16 = 1.09 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 42 = 2.80 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 42 = 2.63 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 23 = 1.46 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 56 = 3.50 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 41 = 2.57 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 56 = 3.73 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 41 = 2.74 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 63 = 3.71 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 48 = 2.83 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 54 = 3.86 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 39 = 2.79 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 114
Sheff Utd - 110
Huddersfield - 103
MK Dons - 100
Stevenage - 99
Wednesday - 99

Projected Points

Charlton - 102
Sheff Utd - 95
Huddersfield - 84
Wednesday - 82
MK Dons - 82
Stevenage - 76

 

[Selly]

OK all up to date and added in magic/projected targets for everyone, even where it's not technically possible.

But the Magic Number is not a Points Target for yourself, its a combination of the points you have to gain and others have to lose, so a PPG target of 3.86 for our erstwhile neighbours is possible, as one can accumulate 6 Magic Number Points each game.

Obviously if your Magic Number PPG is less than three, then you fate is in your own hands, which can only be a good thing

 

[dannycorker]

But the Magic Number is not a Points Target for yourself, its a combination of the points you have to gain and others have to lose, so a PPG target of 3.86 for our erstwhile neighbours is possible, as one can accumulate 6 Magic Number Points each game.

Obviously if your Magic Number PPG is less than three, then you fate is in your own hands, which can only be a good thing

Yeah I know, that's what I meant by it being 'possible'. Those numbers could start falling rapidly now with teams at the top playing each other and the games counting down!

 

[dannycorker]

Updated after yesterdays results.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 32 = 2.29 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 15 = 1.08 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 39 = 2.79 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 42 = 2.63 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 25 = 1.57 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 53 = 3.53 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 38 = 2.54 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 53 = 3.79 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 38 = 2.72 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 63 = 3.94 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 48 = 3.00 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 54 = 3.86 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 39 = 2.79 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 114
Sheff Utd - 110
Huddersfield - 103
MK Dons - 100
Wednesday - 99
Stevenage - 96

Projected Points

Charlton - 104
Sheff Utd - 95
Huddersfield - 86
MK Dons - 83
Wednesday - 82
Stevenage - 74

 

[dannycorker]

Updated after the derby.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 32 = 2.29 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 15 = 1.08 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 36 = 2.57 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 42 = 2.80 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 25 = 1.67 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 50 = 3.33 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 35 = 2.33 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 50 = 3.57 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 35 = 2.50 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 60 = 3.75 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 45 = 2.81 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 48 = 3.69 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 2.54 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 114
Sheff Utd - 107
Huddersfield - 103
MK Dons - 100
Wednesday - 99
Stevenage - 96

Projected Points

Charlton - 104
Sheff Utd - 92
Huddersfield - 86
Wednesday - 84
MK Dons - 83
Stevenage - 74[/QUOTE]

 

[travellingblade]

Thanks to Stevenage's late equalizer, our Top 2 Magic Number dropped by 2 to 40 = 2.67 PPG

 

[stannyblade]

Think its time to concede we wont catch Charlton now. Unless they have an epic fall from grace

 

[Selly]

  	             	  	   	       	Champ	Prom 	P-O  	Proj  	Avg pos	Avg pos
  	Team         	P 	PTS	Max Pts	Magic	Magic	Magic	Total 	Home   	Away   
1 	Charlton     	33	75 	114    	33   	27   	20   	104.51	15.43  	11.67  
2 	Sheffield Utd	31	62 	107    	53   	40   	33   	91.43 	15.71  	13.38  
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
3 	Sheffield Wed	33	60 	99     	55   	48   	35   	84.22 	15     	12     
4 	Huddersfield 	32	59 	101    	56   	49   	36   	84.15 	12     	14.63  
5 	MK Dons      	32	58 	100    	57   	50   	37   	83.88 	13.5   	18.83  
6 	Stevenage    	30	49 	97     	66   	59   	46   	75.16 	14.22  	13.43  
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
7 	Carlisle     	31	49 	94     	66   	59   	49   	72.35 	13.29  	10.5   
8 	Notts County 	32	46 	88     	69   	62   	52   	67.47 	9.38   	14.83  
9 	Brentford    	31	44 	89     	71   	64   	54   	65.26 	12     	12.5   
10	Bournemouth  	33	44 	83     	71   	64   	54   	61.22 	8.71   	10.17  
11	Hartlepool   	33	44 	83     	71   	64   	54   	61.05 	11.14  	13.33  
12	Colchester   	31	41 	86     	74   	67   	57   	60.57 	8.29   	12.88  
13	Preston      	31	40 	85     	75   	68   	58   	59.23 	10.86  	11.38  
14	Bury         	33	40 	79     	75   	68   	58   	55.81 	14.86  	7.67   
15	Yeovil       	34	39 	75     	76   	69   	59   	51.91 	16     	8.71   
16	Oldham       	30	39 	87     	76   	69   	59   	58.94 	11.86  	11     
17	Leyton Orient	31	39 	84     	76   	69   	59   	58.27 	11.71  	12     
18	Tranmere     	32	34 	76     	81   	74   	64   	48.88 	13.43  	14.14  
19	Exeter       	33	33 	72     	82   	75   	65   	46.59 	13.57  	13.5   
20	Scunthorpe   	31	32 	77     	83   	76   	66   	47.93 	11.17  	12.44  
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
21	Walsall      	32	29 	71     	86   	79   	69   	41.94 	12.5   	11.17  
22	Rochdale     	33	29 	68     	86   	79   	69   	40.76 	12     	12.5   
23	Chesterfield 	33	27 	66     	88   	81   	71   	37.97 	14.57  	11.33  
24	Wycombe      	31	26 	71     	89   	82   	72   	38.24 	10.86  	13.38

 

[Cool Clint]

It'll take me to the end of the season before I say 'Aha i get it'.

 

[Jehovah]

I think Ive figured all this out, we have to win a load of games right?

 

[2ndtenorblade]

I think Ive figured all this out, we have to win a load of games right?

As long as those below us don't win more than we do.

 

[super_pig]

9 wins and we're up.. with 15 games left.. should be do-able surely?

 

[dannycorker]

Updated after Huddersfield and Charlton played last night.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 2.08 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 11 = 0.83 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 33 = 2.54 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 40 = 2.67 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 24 = 1.59 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 49 = 3.50 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 34 = 2.43 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 50 = 3.57 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 35 = 2.50 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 59 = 3.93 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 44 = 2.93 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 48 = 3.69 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 2.54 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 114
Sheff Utd - 107
Huddersfield - 101
MK Dons - 100
Wednesday - 99
Stevenage - 96

Projected Points

Charlton - 105
Sheff Utd - 92
Huddersfield - 85
Wednesday - 84
MK Dons - 83
Stevenage - 73

 

[MobileBlade]

For those who like a stat, take a look at this. It shows the %age chance of finishing position. Think it is based on form through the season etc. Think the maths behind it is american so who knows!

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/LeagueOne.html

 

[Selly]

Magic numbers down to 37 now gents

 

[dannycorker]

Update after the victory tonight.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 2.08 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 11 = 0.83 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 33 = 2.54 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 37 = 2.64 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 21 = 1.49 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 49 = 3.50 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 35 = 2.53 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 50 = 3.57 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 36 = 2.60 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 59 = 3.93 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 45 = 3.03 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 48 = 3.69 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 34 = 2.65 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 114
Sheff Utd - 107
Huddersfield - 101
MK Dons - 100
Wednesday - 99
Stevenage - 96

Projected Points

Charlton - 105
Sheff Utd - 93
Huddersfield - 85
Wednesday - 84
MK Dons - 83
Stevenage - 73

 

[1973_Blade]

I've done some looking back and over the last 10 seasons the data shows:

Max number of points for Champions - 100 - Wigan 2002/3 Points per game - 2.13
Lowest - 82 - Southend 2005/6 P/G - 1.78
Average - 94.7 P/G - 2.04

Max number of points for Automatic - 92 - Southampton 2010/11 P/G - 2
Lowest - 83 - QPR 2003/4 P/G - 1.8
Average - 86.1 P/G - 1.87

Currently the table shows

Charlton P/G - 2.27 Projected total 104.5
Us - 2.03 Projected total 93.4
Pigs - 1.81 Projected total 83.6
Udders - 1.84 Projected total 84.8

I don't really know what this shows, but it seems that if we can get to 92 points then we will be very unlucky not to get automatic promotion. So the target has to be 9 wins. Yet it also seems that if the P/G are the same at the end of the season 85 would be enough!

Discuss

 

[travellingblade]

Sorry to be pedantic, but how can the lowest number of points to become Champions be only 82, whereas the lowest number of Automatic Promotion is higher at 83.

Does not compute.

Still good work though.