Just posted in shoutbox
Some suggestion on the radio today that when crowds are allowed back at football grounds like ours may be limited to temporary capacity of around 5000 with fans spread out around the stadium.. may as well play behind closed doors as do that there would be no atmosphere to speak of. And who decides which 5000 of our 30k season ticket holders gets to attend.
(TBH I’m getting more and more certain that it will be next year 2021 before crowds are allowed back)
The question is, at what point do we take the brakes off completely and allow total relaxation of social distancing rules? If the answer to that is, when we have a vaccine, then that is potentially years away, because it's not just finding an effective vaccine, it's then putting a national programme of immunisation in place. I missed a bit out, it's also about having a "safe" vaccine. We won't know that until hundreds of thousands of people have been immunised. So, there's a risk, but for those most at risk from coronavirus it's probably a risk worth taking.
I doubt we will see a complete "brakes off" approach to social distancing for a long, long time. I think we will see a gradual easing of restrictions, for some, starting next month. I think there are 3 things that will drive this:
- Reduction in the infection rate
- Availability of effective tests to detect who has got it or had it
- NHS resources
The number of new reported cases of infection are falling, which is a good sign, but the key statistic is how transmissible the infection remains? This is something that we've been hearing a lot more about of late, expressed as the R value. If the R value is 1, it means that for every person infected they will pass it on to at least 1 more person. If it is more than 1 then you have a likelihood of exponential spread of the infection, if it's below 1 then you don't. It's currently trending below 1 in the UK, which is also good news, although we have to remember that this doesn't tell us the consequences, e.g. mortality, from it being spread further, it's just about the how likely it is for others to get it from another person. There will be no relaxation of social distancing rules unless the R value remains below 1 for a sustained period of time. What is a sustained period of time? I don't think anyone would stick their neck out on that one - but I do think that if the R value remains below 1 over the next 3 weeks this will be a big factor in considering easing social distancing rules.
The availability of effective tests could make a huge difference to social distancing policy. At present we've only tested a fraction of the population and prioritised this for NHS key workers, which I think is right. But it's a bit of a shambles that we haven't been capable of testing far more widely. I know there are issues with tests and they are in short supply etc., but frankly, we just weren't prepared. The reason why Germany has fared better than other European countries in handling COVID-19 is because they have mass tested the population and this is so important because it allows those who have it, to be kept away from those who haven't, and it allows those who have had it and built up immunity, to be free to socialise, return to work, etc. I hear we are working hard to increase the testing in the UK but we are still way behind where we wanted to be and I don't think we'll be in a position to know who's got it or had it, on a big enough scale, to inform a decision on complete relaxation of social distancing for many months to come yet.
So then it comes down to the NHS resources, put another way, the ability of the NHS to cope. And that's the main reason why the lock down was enforced in the first place, because without it, the NHS would have been overwhelmed, in London particularly. What we've seen over the past few weeks are great improvements in terms of the number of available ICU beds and staffing levels. At the moment it looks like we do have some spare capacity to deal with the current rate of infections, providing they don't shoot up again (which is why the R value is so important). But it's disturbing that those who are risking their lives to help others don't have enough protective equipment! This in particular has to be fixed over the coming weeks and I think it will personally, and I think once we reach the point where we have both capacity in terms of beds and staff and protective equipment, this will lead to some relaxation of social distancing rules, for some.
I think it's highly likely that those most at risk will remain under some restrictions and, because we won't know for definite who these people are, because we won't have tested enough people, the policy will be to put a blanket restriction by age group primarily and that age group is likely to be over 70's. Which is pretty unfair if you're a fit and sprightly 70 year old with no serious underlying health problems, but in the absence of a safe, effective vaccine and widespread testing, that's about the only rational solution, in the short term, to allow a relaxation of social distancing whilst protecting those thought to be most vulnerable.
I can see shops, businesses, being opened from next month. Maybe pubs being opened from June onwards and possibly relaxation on foreign travel to and from some parts of the world. But what does it mean for football?
I don't see how it is going to work, opening up football stadia but only letting 10% or less of the capacity to attend. There's still a risk with that in any case, people mingle going to and from the game and inside the stadia. Personally I think they will not relax social distancing rules for large events until after the end of summer. And then, depending on the 3 factors mentioned above, if the stats are looking healthy from that, we might be allowed to have large scale gatherings again.
www.sufc.co.uk
