5th round fixture

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Sabella's Socks said:
If this one ever dies down perhaps we can move on to Monty Hall.

🐐 🚗🐐
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You know, I was thinking last night that this discussion felt along those lines! I used to teach the Monty Hall problem (and Bertrand's box) to first year students at university, and they could never get their heads around it at first.
 

Geordie Blade said:
You know, I was thinking last night that this discussion felt along those lines! I used to teach the Monty Hall problem (and Bertrand's box) to first year students at university, and they could never get their heads around it at first.
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Many readers of vos Savant's column refused to believe switching is beneficial despite her explanation. After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them claiming vos Savant was wrong (Tierney 1991). Even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still do not accept that switching is the best strategy (vos Savant 1991a). Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating vos Savant’s predicted result (Vazsonyi 1999).


It happens to the best of us......

I've had it explained (without shouting 1/15 1/15 1/15 aggressively or typing p and numbers many times.) not only as to where I went wrong but why and the reasoning behind my error. Which l did ask for yesterday evening.

I was clearly wrong.

As a wise man might say, "glistens, fucking glistens"
 
Sean Thornton said:
It happens to the best of us......
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Compared to Facebook and elsewhere, this board is only for elite Blades.

We don't want innumerate thickos on here, so why not FOTH to immerse yourself in the full Pigonomics range of mathematical theorem?

Just sayin' like.....
 
I should coco said:
Compared to Facebook and elsewhere, this board is only for elite Blades.

We don't want innumerate thickos on here, so why not FOTH to immerse yourself in the full Pigonomics range of mathematical theorem?

Just sayin' like.....
Click to expand...


I've got a probability calculation for you......
 
Sean Thornton said:
I've had it explained (without shouting 1/15 1/15 1/15 aggressively or typing p and numbers many times.) not only as to where I went wrong but why and the reasoning behind my error. Which l did ask for yesterday evening.

I was clearly wrong.

As a wise man might say, "glistens, fucking glistens"
Click to expand...

To be fair, I'm quite a fan of people who'll argue a point despite being in the minority. Just because lots of other people say something doesn't make it right. My only issue was with the wholesale dismissal of maths because it is "just a theory". In fact, equations are the most transparent way of demonstrating something like this, and are open to objective critique. Saying "but it must be" does not allow the same.

On the whole, I think people were pretty patient with the explanations - if you re-read them, most were genuinely trying to explain it in different ways.

Out of interest, how did the person explain it to you?
 

Geordie Blade said:
To be fair, I'm quite a fan of people who'll argue a point despite being in the minority. Just because lots of other people say something doesn't make it right. My only issue was with the wholesale dismissal of maths because it is "just a theory". In fact, equations are the most transparent way of demonstrating something like this, and are open to objective critique. Saying "but it must be" does not allow the same.

On the whole, I think people were pretty patient with the explanations - if you re-read them, most were genuinely trying to explain it in different ways.

Out of interest, how did the person explain it to you?
Click to expand...


Basically in plain English, but raised the point that while my intuition about the betting odds after the first team was wrong they could see why l thought it. Obviously now l can see that there is no change on the possibilities, but that's the point the light bulb came on. As someone who bets, the odds seemed worse to me. Clearly wrong. I was looking at it from a "value" point of view and deduced there was no extra. There isn't, but l said there was less.....
 
Sean Thornton said:
Thanks for that. I get it. Can l ask you about the actual odds, which is where I’ve been coming from since the beginning? To clarify.

What are the actual odds for an all local draw with sixteen teams.

What are the actual odds for a Sheffield team to draw any other team

What are the actual odds for any team to be drawn first?

What are the actual odds for either local side to be drawn second?

What are the actual odds for either local side to be drawn second?

l’m not being a twat, l’d like your input on the odds.
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Sean to help visualise it, have a look at the spreadsheet in Toby 's excellent post:
www.s24su.com

5th round fixture

If I were considering only 2/15 to lose the bet I would have to assume 13/15 to win. Which would be wrong. 13/15 wouldn’t win you anything. It would just keep your bet alive.
www.s24su.com www.s24su.com

Ignore all of the scenarios in which SU or SW are the first club drawn. That leaves you with 210 remaining possible scenarios. Of these 210, there are 14 which still result in a derby. Hence the odds would be 14/210, or in other words 1/15.
 
Sean Thornton said:
Oh, and apologies to everyone who took the trouble to reply, some repeatedly, whose time I wasted.

As hobbies go thought, it's up there with train spotting :)
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I don’t feel like my time was wasted, I quite enjoyed it.

I’m sure some of it came across as argumentative, but it wasn’t intended to be, I was genuinely trying to find a way of explaining it. Even when I probably sounded sarcastic and/or patronising with the post that ended ‘Well done’ I actually thought changing tack and looking at the scenario of a Sheffield team as ball one was a way of breaking the deadlock. The ‘well done’ was unnecessary and rude, so for that I apologise.

I won’t apologise for any of my workings out, no matter how awful it is to read on a mobile screen 😁
 
Punk Blade said:
I don’t feel like my time was wasted, I quite enjoyed it.

I’m sure some of it came across as argumentative, but it wasn’t intended to be, I was genuinely trying to find a way of explaining it. Even when I probably sounded sarcastic and/or patronising with the post that ended ‘Well done’ I actually thought changing tack and looking at the scenario of a Sheffield team as ball one was a way of breaking the deadlock. The ‘well done’ was unnecessary and rude, so for that I apologise.

I won’t apologise for any of my workings out, no matter how awful it is to read on a mobile screen 😁
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No need to apologise at all. All part of the bun fight. Where l got hit by several cream flans, right in the clock.

:)
 
Sean Thornton said:
Basically in plain English, but raised the point that while my intuition about the betting odds after the first team was wrong they could see why l thought it. Obviously now l can see that there is no change on the possibilities, but that's the point the light bulb came on. As someone who bets, the odds seemed worse to me. Clearly wrong. I was looking at it from a "value" point of view and deduced there was no extra. There isn't, but l said there was less.....
Click to expand...

I can 100% see why you would think it (I think most people would). It feels like there is new information because a ball has been drawn. However, the only real information happens the moment that two teams are paired together.

P.S. Like Punk Blade, I enjoyed the discussion. I'm going to sound incredibly pompous here, but my PhD was all about how people perceive probability, so it's definitely a pet area for me!
 
Geordie Blade said:
I can 100% see why you would think it (I think most people would). It feels like there is new information because a ball has been drawn. However, the only real information happens the moment that two teams are paired together.

P.S. Like Punk Blade, I enjoyed the discussion. I'm going to sound incredibly pompous here, but my PhD was all about how people perceive probability, so it's definitely a pet area for me!
Click to expand...


You bastard. Perception. You knew where I went wrong and still joined in with everyone else kicking me around the playground like a fat first year on his birthday......


:)
 
Sean Thornton said:
No need to apologise at all. All part of the bun fight. Where l got hit by several cream flans, right in the clock.

:)
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Well, now you have me doubting ...............

Was it ever "All in the Accounts" .................... :p
 

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