PokerBlade
Well-Known Member
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- Sep 28, 2015
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I speak to PL fans and most look at our signings and think we’ve had an awful Summer transfer window.
They tell me that most Championship players struggle with the step up to the PL (which does seem to be true).
So they are all confident that Robinson, Freeman, Osborn, McBurnie will really struggle.
Believe it or not many reckon our main signing and main hope is Phil Jagielka
They think we’ve bought him to be our defensive king pin. They are amazed when I tell them he’s back up and might hardly play.
They're just making bad inferences. It's trivially true that most players aren't good enough to play at a level higher than they currently are - that's why they play at that level. It's also true that all players earn their chance by playing at a lower level - nobody plays pro football without having played, at the very least, youth football. Pointing out that we've only signed Championship players means at a raw probability they'd not be good enough for us ignores that we aren't randomly selecting from a pool of players, we're selecting from the players we think have shown they have the ability to make the step up.
It's a bit like they're saying that the average height of a man in the UK is 5'10 and therefore Oli McBurnie is 5'10. I guess you'd have an okay shot at being right but all it tells me is that you don't really know anything about the players you're talking about. Population stats don't tell you about the individual.