Compared with last season...

[grafikhaus]

On a roll...


Like a shark hovering just below the surface, now we're rising for the kill...



The Big, Bad, Blobby 'Brucie Bounce' in full effect. Just 20 points now - the largest gap since we were both in The Championship...

 

[grafikhaus]

Result of the season.





Thought you'd reduce the gap??? Let's see if they ever play a team in the top half.

 

[Selly]

 

[ChemEngBlade]

Not dropping out of the top 6 since game 5 (i think) is amazing for a pub team without an 'out & out striker'

 

[grafikhaus]

Fucking shameless bump.

 

[sheffielder]

View attachment 50083

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This can't be right, I heard rumours the pigs were coming for us, yet they are still 20 points behind after today.

 

[Selly]

This can't be right, I heard rumours the pigs were coming for us, yet they are still 20 points behind after today.

In fairness since Mr Potato Head took charge they have closed the gap by *checks notes* minus 4 points.

 

[Mad Mick]

We're only 5 points off our total points tally for last season, Amazing.

 

[Maidenhead]

Fucking shameless bump.

And why not?

I love a good graph

 

[DifferentClass]

In fairness since Mr Potato Head took charge they have closed the gap by *checks notes* minus 4 points.

I love that fat bastard.

 

[blade67]

using comparable fixtures as a measure that is 3 points won on last year. 12 points up now, although we won the next 4 last year.

 

[blade67]

Looking at the run in, Norwich still have the "easiest" set of games.

Not only do they play the lowest ranked teams (average 16th), they also play 7 games against teams without much to play for (mid table). I did wonder if this made any difference but Harvard (no less) have studied it and mid table teams do drop off in the latter part of the season.

Bristol C have the toughest run in, and the rest are all similar.

Leeds have the least mid table teams to play

 

[stringjunior]

using comparable fixtures as a measure that is 3 points won on last year. 12 points up now, although we won the next 4 last year.

View attachment 50171

Can't see us getting just 2 points from the next 6 this year.

 

[cooperblade]

Looking at the run in, Norwich still have the "easiest" set of games.

Not only do they play the lowest ranked teams (average 16th), they also play 7 games against teams without much to play for (mid table). I did wonder if this made any difference but Harvard (no less) have studied it and mid table teams do drop off in the latter part of the season.

Bristol C have the toughest run in, and the rest are all similar.

Leeds have the least mid table teams to play

I like this way of looking at the run in

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=10

 

[blade too long]

Looking at the run in, Norwich still have the "easiest" set of games.

Not only do they play the lowest ranked teams (average 16th), they also play 7 games against teams without much to play for (mid table).

surely if wednesday think they can get in play offs those other mid table shit team will think the same
that would make Norwichs run in really hard
is us going to wednesday any harder than norwich playing other teams on 44 to 47 points

why are we so easy to see pit falls for us that are exactly as dangerous as norwichs games

theres only one win between 11th and 17th so who we play is hard to define
brentford win their 2 games in hand they can jump to 8th

 

[blade67]

surely if wednesday think they can get in play offs those other mid table shit team will think the same
that would make Norwichs run in really hard
is us going to wednesday any harder than norwich playing other teams on 44 to 47 points

why are we so easy to see pit falls for us that are exactly as dangerous as norwichs games

theres only one win between 11th and 17th so who we play is hard to define
brentford win their 2 games in hand they can jump to 8th

I'm not trying to be negative, honest. You make a valid point about the pigs but it's a fact that mid table teams are that for a reason generally. Good players but either not very well lead or not really motivated.

in the end it's in our hands

 

[blade too long]

well for example both us and norwich have got to play rotherham

weve got the at home and theyve not won a single away game
norwich have got to go to new york stadium , where they are twice the team
we both have to go to stoke

and their last game is at Villa who could yet get in the play offs so they dont have an easier task , just a different one

 

[grafikhaus]

Not too down after that. Like the Everton v Liverpool game on Sunday, this was truly their 'Cup Final' as they pursue mid table mediocrity and their only ambition was to scupper our autos ambition. Massive my arse - bigger fish to fry in the next three games.

We've only lost one game since December 14 and not conceded in the last four games





17 points. Seventeen fucking points. Just point that out to any big-gobbed Wendyite this morning.

 

[Selly]

What's that? - you want a table showing the relative difficulty of upcoming fixtures based on current positions*?

*said no one ever


Conclusions from the above:
Bolton have a chance
Reading and Rotherham are in major trouble
Derby and Forest have a reasonable run in (in terms of the teams they are playing)

 

[grafikhaus]

What's that? - you want a table showing the relative difficulty of upcoming fixtures based on current positions*?

*said no one ever


Conclusions from the above:
Bolton have a chance
Reading and Rotherham are in major trouble
Derby and Forest have a reasonable run in (in terms of the teams they are playing)

Good stuff, but if you asked anyone which are 'hard' fixtures, they'd say Derby, Nottingham Forest, Villa etc. based purely on their names but these teams are incredibly inconsistent. I'd say one of our harder remaining games is Preston. Firmly established at this level, no insane expectations etc. Although even below Wednesday (and at Norwich on Friday), I'm glad we don't have to play Swansea again - 'Indian Sign' and all that.

 

[cooperblade]

What's that? - you want a table showing the relative difficulty of upcoming fixtures based on current positions*?

*said no one ever
View attachment 50520

Conclusions from the above:
Bolton have a chance
Reading and Rotherham are in major trouble
Derby and Forest have a reasonable run in (in terms of the teams they are playing)

Good stuff.

Some of the fixtures are skewed massively by where they're played. E.g. our home game v Brentford looks a lot easier than Leeds away game against them even though both games are against the 15th side. The table using PPG of opponents based on their home/away results to date (I've posted it somewhere - EDIT post #1814), shows us having the easiest run-in in the league.

Seen an other table somewhere showing how teams' PPG tends to change based on their position in the league. Reduced to absolute basics, teams at the top maintain/drop slightly, teams in the middle drop and teams near the bottom improve.

So games against mid-table teams at a venue (home/away) where they struggle are ideal. Cue a 3-1 defeat v Brentford....

 

[Selly]

Good stuff.

Some of the fixtures are skewed massively by where they're played. E.g. our home game v Brentford looks a lot easier than Leeds away game against them even though both games are against the 15th side. The table using PPG of opponents based on their home/away results to date (I've posted it somewhere - EDIT post #1814), shows us having the easiest run-in in the league.

Seen an other table somewhere showing how teams' PPG tends to change based on their position in the league. Reduced to absolute basics, teams at the top maintain/drop slightly, teams in the middle drop and teams near the bottom improve.

So games against mid-table teams at a venue (home/away) where they struggle are ideal. Cue a 3-1 defeat v Brentford....

That's a very good point. Something for me to add into the above in my lunch hour tomorrow.

Interestingly, even if us, Leeds and Norwich all manage 2 points per game from here the top three will still only end up with 91, 89 and 87 point. Given that none of us have actually managed that so far it's not inconceivable that 85 points sees you up automatically.

 

[Selly]

Right - here we go:


According to that:

We have the easiest Home Run in in the division, but also the hardest away run in of the top half of the table. Away performances will probably determine whether we go up automatically or not - obviously the Leeds game being key.
Birmingham appear to have the easiest run-in in the division
Rotherham still look goosed

 

[blade67]

Right - here we go:
View attachment 50559

According to that:

We have the easiest Home Run in in the division, but also the hardest away run in of the top half of the table. Away performances will probably determine whether we go up automatically or not - obviously the Leeds game being key.
Birmingham appear to have the easiest run-in in the division
Rotherham still look goosed

So. if I'm reading that correctly, the column, Overall, average PPG, shows the average ppg won by remaining opponents taking into account their home and away records so far this season. This seems about the best way to establish the likely impact of the remaining matches. Ultimately, it looks like the top 5 have pretty similar "difficulty" of remaining games. All about bottle from now on I guess.

Is this going to be a bugger to maintain from now till the end of season as it's interesting to a geek like me

 

[Houston_Blade]

Right - here we go:
View attachment 50559

According to that:

We have the easiest Home Run in in the division, but also the hardest away run in of the top half of the table. Away performances will probably determine whether we go up automatically or not - obviously the Leeds game being key.
Birmingham appear to have the easiest run-in in the division
Rotherham still look goosed

We can still finish 22nd, I'd take mid-table now.

 

[finlaytheblade]

Just shows how hard it is to work out where the points will come from.
6 games ago we had what looked like the hardest run in of the contenders ,more even playing field now having picked up some great points from some tough away games.
We are really in with a great chance this season !!

 

[Maidenhead]

We can still finish 22nd, I'd take mid-table now.

So a draw on Saturday and we're safe from relegation

 

[Houston_Blade]

So a draw on Saturday and we're safe from relegation

We can but dream my friend.......

 

[blade too long]

We have 11 games left 6 at home 5 away
Leeds have 11 left and aw5 at home and 6 away.
65 points on the board means 5 wins alone would put us on 80 points and assured of 4th or 5th
8 wins from 11 means 89 points and possibly 2nd slot

Certainly achieving what we set out to do pre season. Improve enough to be 6th upwards

 

[blade67]

How it looks compared to matches against the same/comparable opponents