6 More Wins And We Can Start to Relax

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GaryHamsonsLeftBootLace

GaryHamsonsLeftBootLace

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In the euphoria of the Bouncing Day Massacre and reaching the dizzy heights of reaching 2nd in La Liga (nice subtle dig on Twitter that one Admin) I almost missed the fact that we're possibly already halfway to avoiding relegation.

At the end of 2015/16 40 points (and a goal difference better than -40) would have seen us sit in 21st above Charlton and avoid the drop.

That's 19 points more than we currently have. So 6 more wins and a draw from our remaining 36 games. Quite achievable.

In 16/17 we'd have needed 52 points to finish above Blackburn in 21st. A tighter league last year then, but still that's only another 30 points, or 10 wins and a draw from 36.

In 14/15 41 and a decent goal difference would have seen us safe.

I realise we're slowly coming round to the realisation we may need to adjust our aspirations for this season, but back in August I would have taken 21st. It's amazing therefore that this little pub league team is already, after only 10 games within touching distance of that target.
 



Im far more interested in the other end current form guide
GP W D L GF GA GD Pts 2.5+
1 Sheffield Utd 8 6 0 2 13 7 +6 18 38%
2 Cardiff City 8 5 2 1 13 9 +4 17 62%
3 Leeds Utd 8 5 1 2 15 6 +9 16 38%
4 Aston Villa 8 4 3 1 15 6 +9 15 62%
5 Preston 8 4 3 1 10 4 +6 15 38%
6 Ipswich Town 8 5 0 3 18 13 +5 15 62%
7 Bristol City 8 3 5 0 13 7 +6 14 38%
8 Wolverhampton 8 4 2 2 12 11 +1 14 62%
 
I always convince myself that with x number of wins I can relax. It hasn't happened yet in 37 years! Six more wins and I might be convincing myself that promotion is a serious possibility!
 
I've watched United for too many years to count my chickens. I'll be happy when we're safe
 
If I was more relaxed I'd fall off my seat - whoops did that this week v Wolves - tee many martoonies - well pints actually!

The Magic is Back - for good
 
About this time last season I suggested Basham was one of our better players and was ridiculed.

Around November last year I stated categorically that we were going up and was slapped down.

At the start of this season I said it was time we got Brooks in the team playing regularly and was told he was too young and not ready.

At the start of this season in this forum's predictions for the season I said top 6 and was ridiculed again and told to stop putting unnecessary pressure on the team and manager.

Well, for those who are listening, we aint going down, we are going up. Make of that what you will and see if I give a shit if anyone thinks otherwise.
 
snootyfenooty said:
About this time last season I suggested Basham was one of our better players and was ridiculed.

Around November last year I stated categorically that we were going up and was slapped down.

At the start of this season I said it was time we got Brooks in the team playing regularly and was told he was too young and not ready.

At the start of this season in this forum's predictions for the season I said top 6 and was ridiculed again and told to stop putting unnecessary pressure on the team and manager.

Well, for those who are listening, we aint going down, we are going up. Make of that what you will and see if I give a shit if anyone thinks otherwise.
Click to expand...
It's all me, me, me with you isn't it!!:p
 



snootyfenooty said:
About this time last season I suggested Basham was one of our better players and was ridiculed.

Around November last year I stated categorically that we were going up and was slapped down.

At the start of this season I said it was time we got Brooks in the team playing regularly and was told he was too young and not ready.

At the start of this season in this forum's predictions for the season I said top 6 and was ridiculed again and told to stop putting unnecessary pressure on the team and manager.

Well, for those who are listening, we aint going down, we are going up. Make of that what you will and see if I give a shit if anyone thinks otherwise.
Click to expand...

Bollox... meant in the nicest possible way!!

I think it's the humble nature of the club that allows it to be succesful at the minute, no billy big bollox attitudes, don't take anybody for granted and treat everyone with respect taking one game at a time.

I said this to many pigs last week - Pride comes before a fall.
 
TomJonesBlade said:
Not sure Mr. Wilder knows the meaning of the word 'relax'.
Click to expand...
I very much doubt he's particularly concerning himself with the notion of 50 points, either. Except maybe as a target to reach by December.
 
snootyfenooty said:
About this time last season I suggested Basham was one of our better players and was ridiculed.

Around November last year I stated categorically that we were going up and was slapped down.

At the start of this season I said it was time we got Brooks in the team playing regularly and was told he was too young and not ready.

At the start of this season in this forum's predictions for the season I said top 6 and was ridiculed again and told to stop putting unnecessary pressure on the team and manager.

Well, for those who are listening, we aint going down, we are going up. Make of that what you will and see if I give a shit if anyone thinks otherwise.
Click to expand...
You're my hero:)
 
There's an interesting thread on Porktalk about the historical statistical likelihood of making the play offs based on the standings at 15 games. It's quite difficult to follow, but worth a read. Interestingly, a lot of the contributors have virtually given up on top six for them already.

Based on the OP's theory, two more wins for us and we'd be sitting pretty :)

https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/t...hes-it-is-almost-set-in-stone-stats-season-3/
 
Trigger Blade said:
There's an interesting thread on Porktalk about the historical statistical likelihood of making the play offs based on the standings at 15 games. It's quite difficult to follow, but worth a read. Interestingly, a lot of the contributors have virtually given up on top six for them already.

Based on the OP's theory, two more wins for us and we'd be sitting pretty :)

https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/t...hes-it-is-almost-set-in-stone-stats-season-3/
Click to expand...

What do you expect when his opening line is ...

"For the third season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches)."

:D:D:D
 
Trigger Blade said:
There's an interesting thread on Porktalk about the historical statistical likelihood of making the play offs based on the standings at 15 games. It's quite difficult to follow, but worth a read. Interestingly, a lot of the contributors have virtually given up on top six for them already.

Based on the OP's theory, two more wins for us and we'd be sitting pretty :)

https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/t...hes-it-is-almost-set-in-stone-stats-season-3/
Click to expand...
Thank you hirstwhoscoredit.
I will put that here:

For the third season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches).



We have now played 10 matches. Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish. It hardly ever happens!



As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6. Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU!



The league table after 15 matches looked like this last season:-



Newcastle 34

Brighton 31

Huddersfield 28

Norwich 27

Reading 25

Bristol C 24

Birmingham 24

Wednesday 24

Leeds 23

Brentford 22

Fulham 21

Barnsley 20

Preston 20

QPR 19

Villa 18

Ipswich 18



Familiar look to the final table?



The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:-



Hull 31

Burnley 31

Brighton 31

Derby 30

Boro 30

Brum 25

Reading 24

Wednesday 24

Cardiff 22

Ipswich 21

Brentford 20

Fulham 20



Familiar look to the final table?



This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches



Brighton 92- 31-30-31

Newcastle 91-34-31-26

Reading 85-25-31-26

Wednesday 81-24-28-29

Huddersfield 81-28-30-23

Fulham 80-21-25-34



So Last season the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third.



and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong.



Leeds 74-23-31-20



This is the top 6 for 2015-16 broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches



Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38

Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31

Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33

Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24

Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27

Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24



So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third.



Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:-



Bournemouth 90-27-31-32

Watford 89-29-24-36

Norwich 86-26-24-36

Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26

Brentford 78-22-30-26

Ipswich 78-24-27-27



Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs.



In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20)



Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games:



2016/17 = 80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points



2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24



2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24.



2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21.



2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26.



2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24.



2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20.





6th spot average over 7 years = 74.6



6th spot teams after 15 games = 22.9



So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points.



In the last three years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points.



We currently have 13 points from 10 matches. Are we confident of getting to at least 24? Can we get to 27?
default_NRhTp24.png




Our next 5 matches to take us to 15 are:-



H v Leeds

A v Bolton

A v Derby

H v Barnsley

H v Millwall



Extreme Examples:-



Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:-



Palace under Dowie



73 points - 16-25-32



Sunderland under Keane



88 points - 19 - 27 -42



Reading 89-18-33-38



Blackpool 70-24-16-30



They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years. By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third.
 
snootyfenooty said:
About this time last season I suggested Basham was one of our better players and was ridiculed.

Around November last year I stated categorically that we were going up and was slapped down.

At the start of this season I said it was time we got Brooks in the team playing regularly and was told he was too young and not ready.

At the start of this season in this forum's predictions for the season I said top 6 and was ridiculed again and told to stop putting unnecessary pressure on the team and manager.

Well, for those who are listening, we aint going down, we are going up. Make of that what you will and see if I give a shit if anyone thinks otherwise.
Click to expand...

I’m more happyclapper than slasher so I keep making optimistic predictions, was always confident we’d have a good season and finish 8th to 10th but Wilder keeps exceeding every prediction I make.

Ah f**k, we’re gonna win this league.........by March18
Put that in ya pipe and smoke it, exceed that then Mr Wilder.
 
At the start of the season I'd have settled for around 15th and even though we are playing brilliantly, I'm still thinking about getting 50 points first and see where we are. I'm finding it difficult to know whether I want the bottom or top teams to lose though, apart from the filth, who should just lose to everyone.
 



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