Compared with last season...

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JordoBlade said:
2 points per game is winning 2 every 3 games. Sounds a lot to ask for. But then again I'm used to failure by now.
Click to expand...

From our last 10 games we've got 2.4 points per game, which makes it feel more achievable.

Incidentally, if we maintain our form of the last 10 games for the remainder of the season, we'll finish on 102 points. Now don't get me wrong - statistically extrapolating a short period of good form over two-thirds of a season is a poor method of making predictions, and I certainly don't believe we'll finish on 102 points. However, it does go to show that if the last 10 games is a fair representation of what we're capable of when playing well, we can afford another bad spell between now and the end of the season (which will probably happen) and still be in with a good chance of automatic.

What interests me is that, even though we're only 1 point ahead of where we were this time last year, the feeling amongst the fans seems noticeably more positive now than it was then. The performances seem to be leaving people more convinced that this is a genuine, sustainable improvement.

Let's see whether we're right.
 

26 goals in 15 games.

We're on track for 80 goals, which I would've snapped your hand off for if offered pre season and still would now. Assuming we don't concede more than 50 then our goal difference should be around +30. That still seems hard to believe as a possibility but if we got near that we'd be unlucky not to get automatic promotion.
 
There's a definite possibility of not dropping a single point in November. I know it's not likely to pan out that way, but it's a very favourable run of games.
 
I did this last season till it became apparent (after about 23 games) that we had absolutely no chance of gaining automatic promotion! This is the track record for the last 11 seasons of the team who won the division. Appreciate we should be looking at the team who finished third (with us needing one point more than 3rd) but it is more fun to set the heights and go for winning the League. The United line is how we are doing this season.
upload_2016-10-31_11-52-16.png


For info after 15 games:

High - Wolves (36 pts - 2013/14)
Low - Wigan (24 pts - 2015/16)

If I get chance later this week I will add to it with how many points the League leaders had after each number of games.
 
WorkingtonBlade said:
From our last 10 games we've got 2.4 points per game, which makes it feel more achievable.

Incidentally, if we maintain our form of the last 10 games for the remainder of the season, we'll finish on 102 points. Now don't get me wrong - statistically extrapolating a short period of good form over two-thirds of a season is a poor method of making predictions, and I certainly don't believe we'll finish on 102 points. However, it does go to show that if the last 10 games is a fair representation of what we're capable of when playing well, we can afford another bad spell between now and the end of the season (which will probably happen) and still be in with a good chance of automatic.

What interests me is that, even though we're only 1 point ahead of where we were this time last year, the feeling amongst the fans seems noticeably more positive now than it was then. The performances seem to be leaving people more convinced that this is a genuine, sustainable improvement.

Let's see whether we're right.
Click to expand...

Fair comments about the pros and cons where expectations are concerned. All sorts of explanations are offered to suggest what might happen, but my own preference is the evidence of my own eyes, especially when we play another contender for promotion. We're certainly not the finished product, but we're not far off. Perhaps a proven goalscorer, someone who can play on the right in an attacking role. a tough, uncompromising midfielder to take care of the gritty stuff, and a couple of defenders, right-fullback, and a decent central defender. Of course we can continue to add, but those seem to me the areas that need strengthening now. Of course, that's for Wilder to assess, but as things stand I think we've got the squad we'd given up hope of assembling. Wilder has bought, at relatively low outgoings, a group who have gelled and have the talent to put the opposition to the sword. I expect we'll lose, draw, suffer injuries, a loss of form, but we'll come through this as it seems the players have the bit between their teeth, which is something that the supporters can pick up on.

Should be an interesting 4-5 months that I hope shows we're worthy promotion prospects UTB
 
MobileBlade said:
I did this last season till it became apparent (after about 23 games) that we had absolutely no chance of gaining automatic promotion! This is the track record for the last 11 seasons of the team who won the division. Appreciate we should be looking at the team who finished third (with us needing one point more than 3rd) but it is more fun to set the heights and go for winning the League. The United line is how we are doing this season.
View attachment 20490


For info after 15 games:

High - Wolves (36 pts - 2013/14)
Low - Wigan (24 pts - 2015/16)

If I get chance later this week I will add to it with how many points the League leaders had after each number of games.
Click to expand...


Just goes to show that 2 points a game is the benchmark figure for a reason.

In reality it also marginally overstates, with 90 certainly being enough, and 88 being the average on grafikhaus 's graph I believe for automatic.

Even with this good form we're still 2 points off at present, it would be nice to be at least level, if not better than the 2 point average before we lose again.
 
billyblademan said:
Just goes to show that 2 points a game is the benchmark figure for a reason.

In reality it also marginally overstates, with 90 certainly being enough, and 88 being the average on grafikhaus 's graph I believe for automatic.

Even with this good form we're still 2 points off at present, it would be nice to be at least level, if not better than the 2 point average before we lose again.
Click to expand...

In fairness, that's not entirely true, is it???
 

I think a good and relevant points tally to look at from previous seasons is after 23 games, the halfway point. We'll have played 24 by the end of the year.

Point totals of the top 3 after 23 games in the last 8 seasons:

2015/16:
1. 48
2. 48
3. 47

2014/15:
1. 48
2. 47
3. 44

2013/14:
1. 49
2. 48
3. 48

2012/13:
1. 44
2. 43
3. 43

2011/12:
1. 51
2. 47
3. 46

2010/11:
1. 46
2. 40
3. 39

2009/10:
1. 56
2. 47
3. 45

2008/09:
1. 51
2. 49
3. 44



Averages:

1. 49 points
2. 46 points
3. 44 points



I've gone through our fixtures until the 23 game mark (Oldham H) and have us on 45 points. With many of the harder away games out of the way, every reason to believe we'll only get stronger and my belief that it won't take a high total for a top 2 finish this season, that would leave us in a good position. We've got to make sure we get towards that points total by the end of the year though because we have quite a favourable run of games, and I don't see any run as favourable in the second half of this season, which I think is what will prevent us from reaching 90 points.
 
Ricky said:
I think a good and relevant points tally to look at from previous seasons is after 23 games, the halfway point. We'll have played 24 by the end of the year.

Point totals of the top 3 after 23 games in the last 8 seasons:

2015/16:
1. 48
2. 48
3. 47

2014/15:
1. 48
2. 47
3. 44

2013/14:
1. 49
2. 48
3. 48

2012/13:
1. 44
2. 43
3. 43

2011/12:
1. 51
2. 47
3. 46

2010/11:
1. 46
2. 40
3. 39

2009/10:
1. 56
2. 47
3. 45

2008/09:
1. 51
2. 49
3. 44



Averages:

1. 49 points
2. 46 points
3. 44 points



I've gone through our fixtures until the 23 game mark (Oldham H) and have us on 45 points. With many of the harder away games out of the way, every reason to believe we'll only get stronger and my belief that it won't take a high total for a top 2 finish this season, that would leave us in a good position. We've got to make sure we get towards that points total by the end of the year though because we have quite a favourable run of games, and I don't see any run as favourable in the second half of this season, which I think is what will prevent us from reaching 90 points.
Click to expand...
Good work sir
 
Ricky said:
I think a good and relevant points tally to look at from previous seasons is after 23 games, the halfway point. We'll have played 24 by the end of the year.

Point totals of the top 3 after 23 games in the last 8 seasons:

2015/16:
1. 48
2. 48
3. 47

2014/15:
1. 48
2. 47
3. 44

2013/14:
1. 49
2. 48
3. 48

2012/13:
1. 44
2. 43
3. 43

2011/12:
1. 51
2. 47
3. 46

2010/11:
1. 46
2. 40
3. 39

2009/10:
1. 56
2. 47
3. 45

2008/09:
1. 51
2. 49
3. 44



Averages:

1. 49 points
2. 46 points
3. 44 points



I've gone through our fixtures until the 23 game mark (Oldham H) and have us on 45 points. With many of the harder away games out of the way, every reason to believe we'll only get stronger and my belief that it won't take a high total for a top 2 finish this season, that would leave us in a good position. We've got to make sure we get towards that points total by the end of the year though because we have quite a favourable run of games, and I don't see any run as favourable in the second half of this season, which I think is what will prevent us from reaching 90 points.
Click to expand...
If predicting results was this easy, we'd all be rich. Well the betting element amongst us would be.
 
Northyorksblade said:
If predicting results was this easy, we'd all be rich. Well the betting element amongst us would be.
Click to expand...

Indeed, but I'm basing it around what could be considered a typical return from a period of games of a certain difficulty rather than running through each match individually. And this team's more predictable than previous ones - we're much more likely to win games we should win. In this case I don't think it's unrealistic to expect the actual points total from an 8 game period to closely resemble my prediction.

If I had to predict individual results though I'd guess something like this:

Chesterfield A - W
Shrewsbury H - W
Bury H - D
Charlton A - D
Walsall H - W
Swindon H - W
Coventry A - L
Oldham - H - W

5 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Given the difficulty of the games, I'd say that's around par. On current form I wouldn't actually expect us to lose any of them but you've got to allow for the odd bad result. If you offered me these results now though I'd definitely take them.
 
Ricky said:
I'm extremely confident we'll win at least 4. So I don't think I'll be far away. Will be interesting to revisit these posts on Boxing Day...
Click to expand...

Tell you what Ricky, you do that and post it on here, I'll tuck into the Turkey curry and copious Xmas booze ;)
 
And this is the 10 year league winner comparative after 16 games:
upload_2016-11-14_13-18-9.png

High: - 39 (Wolves 2014)
Low: - 26 (Scunthorpe 2007)

Worth noting that Wolves next 8 games went: DLLDWDDL (7 pts from 24) before they then won the next 9 on the trot.
 

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