Compared with last season...

[Revolution]

We're 4th in league, so how we can be a long way off being a team in with a chance of promotion?!

The odds are that you need a lot of goals to go up. There are outliers (eg Burton last year) but as a rule you need 80 goals or so for the top 2.

Small sample size, but our scoring rate will likely need to go up unless we start keeping a hell of a lot more clean sheets.

This is why I think we won't succeed, FWIW. There aren't enough goals in the team.

 

[8lade]

There are a few things to me that make a promotion and relegation team. Typically a promotion scores for fun. Typically a relegation team can't score.
Interestingly we've only scored 14 goals which has already been bettered by 12 teams already! ( half the league) So on that basis ATM we've a long way to get to being a promo side.

Whilst agreeing in general with your point Burton only scored 57 (1.24/game) for automatic last year.
At the moment we seem to be riding our luck too (not something you can usually say about United), the penalty against Scunthorpe was a gift, who decides the penalty area is the place to do a roundhouse kick?
Hopefully the strikers will get their shooting boots on sooner rather than later.

 

[Revolution]

Whilst agreeing in general with your point Burton only scored 57 (1.24/game) for automatic last year.
At the moment we seem to be riding our luck too (not something you can usually say about United), the penalty against Scunthorpe was a gift, who decides the penalty area is the place to do a roundhouse kick?
Hopefully the strikers will get their shooting boots on sooner rather than later.

I believe that is the lowest total ever scored by a team finishing in the top 2 of a 46 game league. And if it isn't, it's damn close.

 

[8lade]

Just had another look, Bradford scored 55 for 5th, we're on course for 64. Ironically enough we've binned 3 players who had good goal scoring records (but not at United) Baxter, McNulty, Adams, so as well as needing Sharp and Done to start putting them away we're going to need at least another player in double figures whether that be Clarke, Lavery or A N Other.
Historically none of our midfielders have a strike rate much better than 1 in 10 although Duffy had a 1 in 5.5 season last year.

 

[Revolution]

Just had another look, Bradford scored 55 for 5th, we're on course for 64. Ironically enough we've binned 3 players who had good goal scoring records (but not at United) Baxter, McNulty, Adams, so as well as needing Sharp and Done to start putting them away we're going to need at least another player in double figures whether that be Clarke, Lavery or A N Other.
Historically none of our midfielders have a strike rate much better than 1 in 10 although Duffy had a 1 in 5.5 season last year.

We have spent the last 4 seasons removing all goalscoring ability from our midfield to leave us with the worst midfield, in terms of goals, that the club has ever had.

This has been the biggest impediment to building a promotion winning team.

 

[Ricky]

We need to be aiming for about 75 goals, realistically. An 11 goal total increase from what we're currently on course for isn't too much to ask. It's an amount that will usually put you right in the mix, and it'll be the case this season - there's nobody who's going to be scoring 90 odd, no Wolves, no Bristol City.

As long as we get near that total we'll be in contention for the top two, because our defence will only improve as the season progresses. Moore, EEL and O'Connell will all improve individually with regular games, and they'll improve as a unit too.

 

[Revolution]

We need to be aiming for about 75 goals, realistically. An 11 goal total increase from what we're currently on course for isn't too much to ask. It's an amount that will usually put you right in the mix, and it'll be the case this season - there's nobody who's going to be scoring 90 odd, no Wolves, no Bristol City.

As long as we get near that total we'll be in contention for the top two, because our defence will only improve as the season progresses. Moore, EEL and O'Connell will all improve individually with regular games, and they'll improve as a unit too.

FWIW the average goals scored by the Champions of league one in the last 10 seasons is 82. 2nd Place is 75.

 

[Balham]

We need to be aiming for about 75 goals, realistically. An 11 goal total increase from what we're currently on course for isn't too much to ask. It's an amount that will usually put you right in the mix, and it'll be the case this season - there's nobody who's going to be scoring 90 odd, no Wolves, no Bristol City.

As long as we get near that total we'll be in contention for the top two, because our defence will only improve as the season progresses. Moore, EEL and O'Connell will all improve individually with regular games, and they'll improve as a unit too.

If you take the last 7 games - from the end of August when Wilder had the team together and changed to 3-5-2 then we've scored 12 goals in 7 games. Until then, we'd managed 2 in 4. Extrapolating out the form from the past 7 games gets you to 60 goals between now and the end of the season plus the 14 we've already scored and we're pretty much there, particularly when you factor in the imminent return of Clarke and Lavery.

 

[Ricky]

If you take the last 7 games - from the end of August when Wilder had the team together and changed to 3-5-2 then we've scored 12 goals in 7 games. Until then, we'd managed 2 in 4. Extrapolating out the form from the past 7 games gets you to 60 goals between now and the end of the season plus the 14 we've already scored and we're pretty much there, particularly when you factor in the imminent return of Clarke and Lavery.

Yep, we do appear on course for 70 goals, and I'd expect that - we managed 64 last season. In terms of goals conceded we're averaging about one a game over the last 8 games, conceding 9. I'd expect that to remain similar but improve as the season goes on - this should mean less than 50 conceded in total (59 last season). That should leave the goal difference in the +20/25 area, which in this season's league would probably be very good.

 

[8lade]

The problem with conceding is, losing any one of that back 4 is going to cause a big problem. Lose Moore and we will concede at least 1 per game.
We will not get through another 36 games without getting at least 1 but probably more of the back 5 injured or suspended and that is another reason why we need to have a better conversion rate.

 

[Revolution]

If you take the last 7 games - from the end of August when Wilder had the team together and changed to 3-5-2 then we've scored 12 goals in 7 games. Until then, we'd managed 2 in 4. Extrapolating out the form from the past 7 games gets you to 60 goals between now and the end of the season plus the 14 we've already scored and we're pretty much there, particularly when you factor in the imminent return of Clarke and Lavery.

It does, but you're basically saying "if you leave out when we played badly, we are getting the goals we need". We will play badly again at some point,unfortunately. Winning 5 and drawing 2 out of 7 games is excellent, but they aren't going to keep up that form for the next 35 games.

 

[Bartyblade]

It does, but you're basically saying "if you leave out when we played badly, we are getting the goals we need". We will play badly again at some point,unfortunately. Winning 5 and drawing 2 out of 7 games is excellent, but they aren't going to keep up that form for the next 35 games.

But you could say that we were 'playing badly' whilst the new team was finding it's feet.
'Playing badly' since the first 4 games has not resulted in defeat.
We surely will play badly again, but we now seem mentally strong enough to cope with it.

 

[Revolution]

But you could say that we were 'playing badly' whilst the new team was finding it's feet.
'Playing badly' since the first 4 games has not resulted in defeat.
We surely will play badly again, but we now seem mentally strong enough to cope with it.

Maybe, but we aren't going to win 25 and draw 10 of the next 35 games, are we? That's what we have to do to keep this form up.

 

[Balham]

It does, but you're basically saying "if you leave out when we played badly, we are getting the goals we need". We will play badly again at some point,unfortunately. Winning 5 and drawing 2 out of 7 games is excellent, but they aren't going to keep up that form for the next 35 games.

Fully agree. At some point Billy is going to stop scoring goals and we're going to be carrying a 0-in-3 goalscorer rather than a 1-in-3. Hence my point about Lavery and Clarke.

 

[Ricky]

We need to be aiming for about 75 goals, realistically. An 11 goal total increase from what we're currently on course for isn't too much to ask. It's an amount that will usually put you right in the mix, and it'll be the case this season - there's nobody who's going to be scoring 90 odd, no Wolves, no Bristol City.

As long as we get near that total we'll be in contention for the top two, because our defence will only improve as the season progresses. Moore, EEL and O'Connell will all improve individually with regular games, and they'll improve as a unit too.

I've got a secret... I am Chris Wilder.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/sport/foot...rget-for-his-side-to-win-promotion-1-8171723?

 

[ChipButtyBlade]

I've got a secret... I am Chris Wilder.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/sport/foot...rget-for-his-side-to-win-promotion-1-8171723?

Thats a shock i always thought you were "Herbert".

 

[grafikhaus]

It does, but you're basically saying "if you leave out when we played badly, we are getting the goals we need". We will play badly again at some point,unfortunately. Winning 5 and drawing 2 out of 7 games is excellent, but they aren't going to keep up that form for the next 35 games.

Not too sure after today? We've all been through some crap these last few years but I can't get a song belting out from the kop - 'We're on the march with Chrissie's Army...' outta my mind. Let's hope so.

 

[Maidenhead]

grafikhaus you are my hero

 

[Mad Mick]

OK I've got a cunning plan.
If we average a point a game until the end of season, we will NOT get relegated.
If we win ALL our home games and lose ALL our away games we will reach the play offs.
If we manage an average of 2 points per game we will get automatic.
Simples

 

[8lade]

Please tell me nobody sang that. Replace 'chrissy' with Wilder or even Tufty FFS

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

OK I've got a cunning plan.
If we average a point a game until the end of season, we will NOT get relegated.
If we win ALL our home games and lose ALL our away games we will reach the play offs.
If we manage an average of 2 points per game we will get automatic.
Simples

So on the 2 points a game scenario MM, would you prefer WDWDWDWD or WWLWWLWWL?
I think I need to get out more...

 

[grafikhaus]

Don't think I'm being a bit premature...
Great stuff, Blades!

 

[PTBlade]

Just out of interest.....
What would the graph look like if you discounted everyone's first 4 games?

 

[blade67]

thanks grafikhaus . Anyone else think

There are a few things to me that make a promotion and relegation team. Typically a promotion scores for fun. Typically a relegation team can't score.
Interestingly we've only scored 14 goals which has already been bettered by 12 teams already! ( half the league) So on that basis ATM we've a long way to get to being a promo side.

things look a bit better now

4th highest scorers in the league
4th best defence
a draw from our game in hand sees us go 2nd

 

[Davie Blade]

thanks grafikhaus . Anyone else think

things look a bit better now

4th highest scorers in the league
4th best defence
a draw from our game in hand sees us go 2nd

Indeed, they are.
Delighted we are ATM scoring for fun.
Good test on Saturday.
46 games make a season.

 

[grafikhaus]

Better late etc. Excellent again Blades and another 'toughie' out of the way.



Progress and consistency:

 

[stringjunior]

Thanks Mr@grafikhaus .

Even though our points haul so far compared to last season is only 1 point better, from this point last season we achieved only 1.3-ish points per game. To achieve automatic we're going to need another 64ish points from 32 games. 2 points per game. On last 10 form, and given the way we're playing, this seems doable. BUT 2 points per game isn't easy.

Exciting times.

 

[JordoBlade]

2 points per game is winning 2 every 3 games. Sounds a lot to ask for. But then again I'm used to failure by now.

 

[grafikhaus]

Thanks Mr@grafikhaus .

Even though our points haul so far compared to last season is only 1 point better, from this point last season we achieved only 1.3-ish points per game. To achieve automatic we're going to need another 64ish points from 32 games. 2 points per game. On last 10 form, and given the way we're playing, this seems doable. BUT 2 points per game isn't easy.

Exciting times.

Quite right. At this stage last season, Badkins' lot went six games without a win. Starting next week, we can really start to leave that bad memory behind. Seems at last we've got a manager who deserves to be in charge of this fantastic club, stadium and fans.

 

[stringjunior]

2 points per game is winning 2 every 3 games. Sounds a lot to ask for. But then again I'm used to failure by now.

It's also winning 1 and drawing 1.