loveWalrusDaveTheBlade
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- Aug 12, 2015
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Interesting to see that your position on the influence of selection of the starting 11 vs Leeds has changed from “making a lot of minds up, including mine” to “ informing my opinions”. A more balanced assessment, in my personal opinion. It was your assertion that that sole data point would make up your mind that rankled with me.As I’ve said elsewhere, I will judge based on what I see now, not on what I saw a few years ago. I’ve seen a pattern in how we’ve set up against stronger sides this season (Boro last week being a welcome exception) which hasn’t worked & I don’t rate it. It also fills me with horror at what might happen in the PL next season, if we’re there. So yes, how we set up v Leeds at home will inform my opinions. I have my fears but hope to be pleasantly surprised. My opinion is that we should take the game to Leeds and let them worry about us.
Given your stated preference for judging “ based on what I see now”, how would you assess the following, based on your chosen emphasis on recency bias?
Luton (A) : ‘poor’ choice of starting line up. outcome: 3 points.
Most recent trend : 3 points from the most recent match. Back him or sack him?
Middlesboro (H) : ‘ strong’ starting line up. Outcome: 3 points
Most recent trend: 6 points from the last two matches. Back him or sack him?
Portsmouth ( H): ‘ poor’ starting line up. Outcome: 3 points
Most recent trend: 9 points from the last 3 matches. Back him or sack him?
Derby (A): ‘ poor’ starting line up. Outcome : 3 points
Most recent trend : 12 points from 4 matches. Back him or sack him?
Season 23/24: 72 on-field points from 33 matches. Currently the best return of any Manager in the Championship.
Most recent trend : top of the league. Back him or sack him?
You express your concerns about our approach and success rate against the top teams in the division. I share your concerns on this point, but they are largely immaterial with respect to our prospects of promotion. We are not competing in a mini-League of 4 or 6 teams, we are competing in a division of 23 teams ( plus another shambles), and current data show that as of now we are the most effective of the lot.
It “ fills you with horror as to how we might perform in the Premier League next season”. Me too. If we were to use the current squad in the Premier League next season, then we would be served up on toast every week, regardless of the manager, their tactics, or their starting 11. Our prospects for success in the Premier League are entirely disconnected from Wilders choice of starting 11 against Leeds. Our challenge with the current squad is to get promoted from the Championship, not to survive in the Premier League. Attractive, flowing Championship football is no barometer of success in the Premier League. Look at the most recent data - Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton, Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United. Survival in the Premier League depends on an entirely different set of criteria. Those who have done it recently - Forest ( by the skin of their teeth), Bournemouth, Wolves, Brentford etc , have only achieved this through massive cash injections and smart investment decisions - it is these upon which any future success in the Premier League will be determined, in the event that we are able to get there. The questions as to whether Wilder would be the right manager to achieve the task in the Premier League will largely remain uninformed by our performance in the Championship this season. However, they won’t even be relevant questions unless Wilder gets us up this season. To date, he’s making a fantastic fist of that specific job.
I think we all want to see a front foot, attacking line up against Leeds. I doubt that Wilder would want anything different. If he does make a different choice, however, then I hope we respect the fact that he is better informed than any of us in terms of the form in training, the fitness and injury issues, any illness issues etc that are affecting the players available for selection. I don’t for a moment doubt that he would love to put on a from-foot winning performance as much as any of us on this forum, and to do it every week. Life’s not like that.