We're actually below where we should be

[Scooter_mcgavin]

Think about it, every win so far has been thoroughly deserved and more often than not, we should have won more convincingly.

Our piggy chums think they should be top two 'due to ref decisions' and 'bad tactics' and 'with our squad'.

So where should we be.

Brentford was the only contentious win, however we did have 1/2 legit goals disallowed.

We should have walked over Norwich, deserved the point at Boro, should have had at least a point vs Forest and QPR...

So by my reckoning, we should actually deserve to be on about 40 points. Nothing has been fortunate about any of the points we've achieved so far.

 

[Blade for Sale]

Think about it, every win so far has been thoroughly deserved and more often than not, we should have won more convincingly.

Our piggy chums think they should be top two 'due to ref decisions' and 'bad tactics' and 'with our squad'.

So where should we be.

Brentford was the only contentious win, however we did have 1/2 legit goals disallowed.

We should have walked over Norwich, deserved the point at Boro, should have had at least a point vs Forest and QPR...

So by my reckoning, we should actually deserve to be on about 40 points. Nothing has been fortunate about any of the points we've achieved so far.

I know it's a tongue in cheek post but I don't buy into the commonplace talk of 'deserving' to win or lose games. It's a simple game of putting the ball in the net at one and keeping it out at the other. If you do that more effectively than the opposition you deserve to win the game, regardless of how 'well' you are perceived to have played. The only time 'deserving' comes into it is when something out of your control goes for or against you (usually a refereeing decision).
What I can accept is that in nearly every match we have played so far, with the possible exception of Cardiff, we have performed well, created chances and given ourselves a more then even chance of taking something from each game. If you do that regularly, it follows that you'll win more than you lose.
I know this sounds like it comes form the society of stating the bleedin' obvious but I think this is where Wilder excels. He knows its a simple game, does the basics exceptionally well and sprinkles a bit of stardust. Voila.

 

[Scooter_mcgavin]

Hey, it's international break - expect far worse posts than this one coming up over the next week

 

[IdLiketoRogerMoore]

Hey, it's international break - expect far worse posts than this one coming up over the next week

I'll start:

- McCabe needs to invest big in Jan

- Billy Sharp? Other than goals, assists and leadership - what does he bring?

- Atmosphere at home games is poor

- We need to demolish the Kop and rebuild

- Why can't the postman come at a consist time each day? Really. Some days it's 9am other days it's gone midday...

 

[Scooter_mcgavin]

I'll start:

- McCabe needs to invest big in Jan

- Billy Sharp? Other than goals, assists and leadership - what does he bring?

- Atmosphere at home games is poor

- We need to demolish the Kop and rebuild

- Why can't the postman come at a consist time each day? Really. Some days it's 9am other days it's gone midday...

Since you've made a start.

Will Brooks will be gone in Jan?

Will Wilder be gone in Jan?

Jamal is rubbish.

I hate England.

Will be go back for Leonard/Lenihan in Jan.

And my all time favourite, can Jason Koumas do a job for us.

 

[IdLiketoRogerMoore]

Since you've made a start.

Will Brooks will be gone in Jan?

Will Wilder be gone in Jan?

Jamal is rubbish.

I hate England.

Will be go back for Leonard/Lenihan in Jan.

And my all time favourite, can Jason Koumas do a job for us.

I take issue with the Jason Koumas comment. He once led Glossop North End to the Champions League Final - only Championship Manager mind, but I still have a soft spot...

 

[Scooter_mcgavin]

I take issue with the Jason Koumas comment. He once led Glossop North End to the Champions League Final - only Championship Manager mind, but I still have a soft spot...

Oh no, not another 'Junior Computer Manager'

 

[IdLiketoRogerMoore]

Oh no, not another 'Junior Computer Manager'

Junior at the time maybe...

 

[Pinchy]

Hey, it's international break - expect far worse posts than this one coming up over the next week

I’m doing my best FFS...

 

[Scooter_mcgavin]

I’m doing my best FFS...

Unless it's one of the following Pinchy, I wouldn't bother:

Should Monty get offered a coaching role?
Should we get Morgan back for a coaching role?
Could Matty Done do a job for us?
What club on Junior computer manager 2018 should I manage?

 

[Jon P]

Can someone please remind me why the Brentford win was contentious?

 

[SwissBlade]

Think about it, every win so far has been thoroughly deserved and more often than not, we should have won more convincingly.

Our piggy chums think they should be top two 'due to ref decisions' and 'bad tactics' and 'with our squad'.

So where should we be.

Brentford was the only contentious win, however we did have 1/2 legit goals disallowed.

We should have walked over Norwich, deserved the point at Boro, should have had at least a point vs Forest and QPR...

So by my reckoning, we should actually deserve to be on about 40 points. Nothing has been fortunate about any of the points we've achieved so far.

I agree that we're very close to running away with this league. I think the points you make about the dropped points and goals disallowed, whilst correct, shows that we're probably where we deserve to be, because but for being a little more clinical, we'd indeed have those 40 points.

The biggest issue though is that we've lost 5 games. Naivety perhaps? If we were a little tighter at the back we'd have had draws against QPR, Forest, Norwich and possibly Boro. Cardiff was probably a deserved defeat and allowed us to regroup.

Certainly the midfield naivety and weaknesses that we showed against Cardiff, Boro and possibly even Brentford have gone. we've got the fitness now and the organisation so that we're the team overrunning the opposition and not the other way around.

I think with some smart recruitment in January and being more clinical we could well win this league, if we can continue playing the way we do and picking the points up whilst those below us are taking points off each other.

 

[Scooter_mcgavin]

I agree that we're very close to running away with this league. I think the points you make about the dropped points and goals disallowed, whilst correct, shows that we're probably where we deserve to be, because but for being a little more clinical, we'd indeed have those 40 points.

The biggest issue though is that we've lost 5 games. Naivety perhaps? If we were a little tighter at the back we'd have had draws against QPR, Forest, Norwich and possibly Boro. Cardiff was probably a deserved defeat and allowed us to regroup.

Certainly the midfield naivety and weaknesses that we showed against Cardiff, Boro and possibly even Brentford have gone. we've got the fitness now and the organisation so that we're the team overrunning the opposition and not the other way around.

I think with some smart recruitment in January and being more clinical we could well win this league, if we can continue playing the way we do and picking the points up whilst those below us are taking points off each other.

The attacking philosophy that we're displayed is testament to Wilder's belief.

Draws don't get you promoted from this league, wins do. Whilst we many have lost almost 1 in 3, we've won the rest.

We could have a formidable record of 8 - 6 -2, which everyone would have taken pre season, however, we'd also be 3 points worse off.

 

[Pinchy]

Can someone please remind me why the Brentford win was contentious?

Not with any plausibility. It wasn’t.

 

[Scooter_mcgavin]

Can someone please remind me why the Brentford win was contentious?

I think despite deserving the win, we could easily have drawn the game. They dominated for the last half an our, kinda like Reading did (albeit only the last 20).

We were adjusting, still weren't up to our required fitness levels and this is to blame. You could also argue the games vs Middlesboro and Cardiff away would be far different games now.

 

[SwissBlade]

The attacking philosophy that we're displayed is testament to Wilder's belief.

Draws don't get you promoted from this league, wins do. Whilst we many have lost almost 1 in 3, we've won the rest.

We could have a formidable record of 8 - 6 -2, which everyone would have taken pre season, however, we'd also be 3 points worse off.

Yeah I agree, I wouldn't actually change anything from the start to this season.

 

[SwissBlade]

I think despite deserving the win, we could easily have drawn the game. They dominated for the last half an our, kinda like Reading did (albeit only the last 20).

We were adjusting, still weren't up to our required fitness levels and this is to blame. You could also argue the games vs Middlesboro and Cardiff away would be far different games now.

Yeah were we to play Cardiff and Boro away now the performances would be very different. Certainly against Boro in that first half we looked a way off their pace, Cardiff were much more clinical. However, looking at Pigs and Leeds away we didn't allow them to even get hold of the ball.

 

[PokerBlade]

I think it would be naive to say we haven't ridden our luck in a number of games. Brentford missed two or three of the easiest chances of the season in the space of about as many seconds. Ipswich hit the post with a terrific bit of play that's going to hit the net a lot.

Thing is, I hate breaking games down in that manner because then you also have to consider how unlucky we were to lose at 'Boro, how much the Norwich result went against the play, same for the Forest game. Against QPR, not only did we gift the only goal with a spectacular 'keeper error that won't happen very often, JOC also missed from a training ground move that you have to think the odds of him missing are a low single digit %.

And all that's before you go into the "luck" that teams like Wolves and Cardiff will have had so far. I don't know how many times teams have hit the post against them, or that they've fluked a goal or got a good decision in their favour.

Simple thing is, I haven't seen us win where I've thought it was against the balance of play. Maybe narrow victories, like Bolton away, or Brentford at home, but none where I've thought we robbed anyone. Added to that is the general consistency of the way we play and the goals we score. Coutts the other week and Fleck in the derby, have we scored any others from outside the box? The bulk of our goals are well worked passing moves. We aren't pinging in long range efforts like Hull did where you'd have to think "that's great, but you can't rely on two of those a week". We play good football, score team goals, and we consistently (even in games where the result doesn't go our way) create high % scoring opportunities. And at the other end we consistently limit teams to long range efforts, lower numbers of shots on target.

So many aspects of any individual game can be put down to luck. So can the result of any individual game. This isn't chess where the grandmaster always beats the bunny. That's why you get weird spikes in the stats like losing three times to bloody Walsall last season. But when you consistently play good football, make good chances, defend well, you get to ignore the abberations like a 4-1 defeat away and look at the big picture of a 100pts season.

 

[Grecian2000]

We are 1 point behind where we should be really.

What happens within the game happens. Only a clear cut mistake by the officials can't be legislated for. Missed chances, hitting the woodwork - shit happens.
Linesman clearly not being competent enough to do his job, out of our control and, in the very last minute, crucial.

 

[Grappler]

We were very uncharacteristic at Forest, giving away two goals after a lively start. QPR - we just couldn't seem to get through the mass of bodies in the box. SWFC - we fuckin thumped them 4 -2. You see, if you want to see a rainbow, you have to let it rain sometimes.

 

[Pinchy]

I think it would be naive to say we haven't ridden our luck in a number of games. Brentford missed two or three of the easiest chances of the season in the space of about as many seconds. Ipswich hit the post with a terrific bit of play that's going to hit the net a lot.

Thing is, I hate breaking games down in that manner because then you also have to consider how unlucky we were to lose at 'Boro, how much the Norwich result went against the play, same for the Forest game. Against QPR, not only did we gift the only goal with a spectacular 'keeper error that won't happen very often, JOC also missed from a training ground move that you have to think the odds of him missing are a low single digit %.

And all that's before you go into the "luck" that teams like Wolves and Cardiff will have had so far. I don't know how many times teams have hit the post against them, or that they've fluked a goal or got a good decision in their favour.

Simple thing is, I haven't seen us win where I've thought it was against the balance of play. Maybe narrow victories, like Bolton away, or Brentford at home, but none where I've thought we robbed anyone. Added to that is the general consistency of the way we play and the goals we score. Coutts the other week and Fleck in the derby, have we scored any others from outside the box? The bulk of our goals are well worked passing moves. We aren't pinging in long range efforts like Hull did where you'd have to think "that's great, but you can't rely on two of those a week". We play good football, score team goals, and we consistently (even in games where the result doesn't go our way) create high % scoring opportunities. And at the other end we consistently limit teams to long range efforts, lower numbers of shots on target.

So many aspects of any individual game can be put down to luck. So can the result of any individual game. This isn't chess where the grandmaster always beats the bunny. That's why you get weird spikes in the stats like losing three times to bloody Walsall last season. But when you consistently play good football, make good chances, defend well, you get to ignore the abberations like a 4-1 defeat away and look at the big picture of a 100pts season.

The only luck in any of the above is the wrongly disallowed goal against Boro. The rest is within the legitimate control of the competing participants. Hitting the woodwork is neither good nor bad fortune. Shoot on target, there’s plenty of room.

 

[Pinchy]

We were very uncharacteristic at Forest, giving away two goals after a lively start. QPR - we just couldn't seem to get through the mass of bodies in the box. SWFC - we fuckin thumped them 4 -2. You see, if you want to see a rainbow, you have to let it rain sometimes.

I beg your pardon...

 

[Pinchy]

We were very uncharacteristic at Forest, giving away two goals after a lively start. QPR - we just couldn't seem to get through the mass of bodies in the box. SWFC - we fuckin thumped them 4 -2. You see, if you want to see a rainbow, you have to let it rain sometimes.

We played some exquisite passing football against Forest. It was a pleasure to watch. Had Flecky not made a “once a season” error that gifted them a goal and some impetus, we would likely have won comfortably. However, we lost so, according to the rules of scoreboard journalism, we were ‘gash’.

 

[ucandomagic]

Think about it, every win so far has been thoroughly deserved and more often than not, we should have won more convincingly.

Our piggy chums think they should be top two 'due to ref decisions' and 'bad tactics' and 'with our squad'.

So where should we be.

Brentford was the only contentious win, however we did have 1/2 legit goals disallowed.

We should have walked over Norwich, deserved the point at Boro, should have had at least a point vs Forest and QPR...

So by my reckoning, we should actually deserve to be on about 40 points. Nothing has been fortunate about any of the points we've achieved so far.

Wolves missed a pen, Ipswich hit the bar while Jam just watched, both at crucial points in the games.

On Saturday, Hull had a genuine pen denied when JOC handled, and Leon could easily have been sent off when he went in studs first already on a yellow - both of these when they were 1 up. Oh yes, Saiz hit the post at 1-1 at Bellend Road. These just off the top of my head.

So generally fortune does balance out. Interestingly, I’ve found that I always think we’ve been hard done by when I’m watching the game, but when I watch the replay in the cold, calmer light of day I also see the bits of good luck as well.

Overall, there is only one bit of fortune that we have had that really matters, the perfect storm that brought us the best manager that we’ve ever had.

Let the Magic Go On

 

[blade too long]

I know it's a tongue in cheek post but I don't buy into the commonplace talk of 'deserving' to win or lose games. It's a simple game of putting the ball in the net at one and keeping it out at the other. If you do that more effectively than the opposition you deserve to win the game, regardless of how 'well' you are perceived to have played. The only time 'deserving' comes into it is when something out of your control goes for or against you (usually a refereeing decision).
What I can accept is that in nearly every match we have played so far, with the possible exception of Cardiff, we have performed well, created chances and given ourselves a more then even chance of taking something from each game. If you do that regularly, it follows that you'll win more than you lose.
I know this sounds like it comes form the society of stating the bleedin' obvious but I think this is where Wilder excels. He knows its a simple game, does the basics exceptionally well and sprinkles a bit of stardust. Voila.

voila , dont they empty bins

 

[blade too long]

if we had won all the games we should we should be top of the prem and have 5 stars on our shirts

 

[Grappler]

We played some exquisite passing football against Forest. It was a pleasure to watch. Had Flecky not made a “once a season” error that gifted them a goal and some impetus, we would likely have won comfortably. However, we lost so, according to the rules of scoreboard journalism, we were ‘gash’.

Er.....think you just basically said what I just said, we were uncharacteristic at Forest, Fleck would be the last person I would expect to make that sort of mistake. We played well but couldn't score after the opener from Lundstram. Don't think I used the term "gash" anywhere.

 

[Pinchy]

Er.....think you just basically said what I just said, we were uncharacteristic at Forest, Fleck would be the last person I would expect to make that sort of mistake. We played well but couldn't score after the opener from Lundstram. Don't think I used the term "gash" anywhere.

I know, I wasn’t challenging anything you said; just clinging onto it like a barnacle...

 

[Pinchy]

Wolves missed a pen, Ipswich hit the bar while Jam just watched, both at crucial points in the games.

On Saturday, Hull had a genuine pen denied when JOC handled, and Leon could easily have been sent off when he went in studs first already on a yellow - both of these when they were 1 up. Oh yes, Saiz hit the post at 1-1 at Bellend Road. These just off the top of my head.

So generally fortune does balance out. Interestingly, I’ve found that I always think we’ve been hard done by when I’m watching the game, but when I watch the replay in the cold, calmer light of day I also see the bits of good luck as well.

Overall, there is only one bit of fortune that we have had that really matters, the perfect storm that brought us the best manager that we’ve ever had.

Let the Magic Go On

Again, the vast majority of that is nothing to do with luck.

 

[Bladesman]

I reckon we should have two more points than we have currently got but I wouldn't say we deserved to win at Forest or against Norwich. We need to learn to adapt more against teams like Norwich that don't show up to play football.

I think we were unlucky to lose at Boro and probably could have had the draw at QPR.