Updated Graphs

[ucandomagic]

After Hecky's first game (the Bristol City game) I did a few comparison graphs to see if the playoffs were possible/likely.

I was asked to keep them updated, so here we go:-

Graph 1 below takes our Game 20 results (after Bristol City) and adds 2 sets of possible (optimistic) future results. The black dashed line takes us to 78 points, and almost certain top 6, the blue dashed line takes us to 71 points, the likely minimum that has any chance of top 6.

After yesterday's win over Luton (the red line) we are still ahead of both black and blue lines - so on schedule with the forecasts to reach top 6. All the rearranged games have now been put in place.

Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 25 games we had 41 and 44 points in those Wilder seasons, so we are currently 5 points behind 17/18 and 8 points behind 18/19.

Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, after 25 games, we are now 2 points behind both 08/09 and 09/10.

Another successful step on Hecky's Magic Journey!

Graph 1:-



Graph 2:-





Graph 3:-

 

[finlaytheblade]

Does give you optimism we can do it.
Come on the Blades !!!

 

[ReeceofBDTBL]

I expect us to get in the play offs, there’s only one team I think is better than us and thats Fulham.

Need to be making signings (defensive midfielder, an alternative to MGW and a defender) and recall Jebbison to give us the best chance in the play offs.

 

[blade67]

ucandomagic Great stuff, keep up the good work

 

[corner_flag]

So under Jokanovich, we averaged 1.21 points per game. To get to 71 points from where we are now (37 points after 25 played) we need to average 1.62 points per game. So we need to be 33% better.

Question is, given little or no improvement in the squad, is the change of manager enough to produce a consistent improvement of this scale?
They might have it in them because the team was woefully underperforming under Slav. They look much tighter now, although still have glaring weaknesses.

I reckon with this squad, we will run it close, one or two decent signings could tip it in our favour, but if we lose Gibbs-White, or the squad is weakened by selling any key players, we will miss out

 

[Old Programme seller]

If we were to sell or loan out another striker perhaps Jebbison may be recalled which in theory would be exciting but tbf were not ready for promotion imo

 

[Snowflake]

If we were to sell or loan out another striker perhaps Jebbison may be recalled which in theory would be exciting but tbf were not ready for promotion imo

It doesn’t matter whether we are ready for promotion or not. If it happens we take it, get relegated, collect the money(without spending millions on average players) and regroup financially so that we can produce a squad capable of staying in the Premiership.
Not a great year for the fans getting beaten regularly, but a way to recover from the mad spending spree last year.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

After Hecky's first game (the Bristol City game) I did a few comparison graphs to see if the playoffs were possible/likely.

I was asked to keep them updated, so here we go:-

Graph 1 below takes our Game 20 results (after Bristol City) and adds 2 sets of possible (optimistic) future results. The black dashed line takes us to 78 points, and almost certain top 6, the blue dashed line takes us to 71 points, the likely minimum that has any chance of top 6.

After yesterday's win over Luton (the red line) we are still ahead of both black and blue lines - so on schedule with the forecasts to reach top 6. All the rearranged games have now been put in place.

Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 25 games we had 41 and 44 points in those Wilder seasons, so we are currently 5 points behind 17/18 and 8 points behind 18/19.

Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, after 25 games, we are now 2 points behind both 08/09 and 09/10.

Another successful step on Hecky's Magic Journey!

Graph 1:-

View attachment 128722

Graph 2:-


View attachment 128723


Graph 3:-

View attachment 128721

I really like these, cheers for keeping it going. I love seeing data broken down and simplified like this. Also used to really enjoy BladesPod back when the guy (Jay?) used to analyse us & the opposition through various metrics, found it fascinating.

Sadly, I don't think we have the sort of run it's going to take within us to get promotion.
I don't rate us particularly, I think we're a soft touch at the back and have no bite or mobility in midfield. I also think our left side offers very little at either end. We won't be a million miles off the play-offs but I think we'll fall just short. At best we'll stumble into them but our record against the teams that are up there reflects that we're not up to winning them.

 

[bromtom]

It doesn’t matter whether we are ready for promotion or not. If it happens we take it, get relegated, collect the money(without spending millions on average players) and regroup financially so that we can produce a squad capable of staying in the Premiership.
Not a great year for the fans getting beaten regularly, but a way to recover from the mad spending spree last year.

Yeah I don't get that "we're not ready" stuff, my brother is the same. Promotion would save us, we're buggered really unless we sneak into the Premier League asap.

Pay off the loans, build that bloody training ground, shift the older players and replace them all with a budget of a millions per position rather than somewhere between nowt and £500k

 

[247Blade]

Fuck statistics .... Ger a proper job ffs

 

[Champagneblade]

We have na outrageous imbalance of home v away matches to redress.

This doesn't therefore give what some would consider a fair sample size but under Hecky:

Home - WW PPG 3
Away - WWLD PPG 1.75

Remaining home games x 3PPG = 36 Pts
Remaining away games x 1.75PPG = 15.75 Pts
Current total = 36 Pts

Total Points = 87-88 points.

Bring it on!

 

[Old Programme seller]

To go up we’ll need to spend as not to get seriously embarrassed again so it goes round in a vicious circle financially, the way it works is that you need an owner with very deep pockets and silly enough to spend it on us.

 

[Snowflake]

We have na outrageous imbalance of home v away matches to redress.

This doesn't therefore give what some would consider a fair sample size but under Hecky:

Home - WW PPG 3
Away - WWLD PPG 1.75

Remaining home games x 3PPG = 36 Pts
Remaining away games x 1.75PPG = 15.75 Pts
Current total = 36 Pts

Total Points = 87-88 points.

Bring it on!

If only we could win all our remaining g home games I would be more than happy !

 

[mattbianco1]

Yeah I don't get that "we're not ready" stuff, my brother is the same. Promotion would save us, we're buggered really unless we sneak into the Premier League asap.

Pay off the loans, build that bloody training ground, shift the older players and replace them all with a budget of a millions per position rather than somewhere between nowt and £500k

Said exactly this other day. The longer we stay outside the Premier League, the more chance of us struggling in the 3rd tier. If we get back now, the money restabilises the club.

If we don't go up this year, next season is a MUST

 

[RammyBlade]

I think the next 7 matches will give us a good indicator to our chances as we have Peterborough next who we should beat if we have any realistic chances of play offs followed by Birmingham away where we never seem to do well albeit they arent a good side but then the following 5 are really tough against sides in form and in the promotion hunt.

If we could manage 14 points out of that next lot I would be happy.

Anything more than 14 I would be ecstatic and start to believe we could sneak into a play off position.

Performances against Derby and Preston however make me pessimistic though !

 

[mattbianco1]

Performances against Derby and Preston however make me pessimistic though !

1st half v Derby and 70mins v Preston we were fine. This is what Hecky needs to address.

We should be 9th now with 3pts v Preston and at least 1 v Derby

 

[Alan Birchenall's hair]

We have to win 4 games more than QPR in 4th place over the next 20 to get above them. Not much chance of that, so I'd so our only outside chance is to catch WBA and Huddersfield. But Boro, Forest, Stoke and Cov are in a better position to do that and will fancy it more than we do. (points on the board trump games in hand) So we're at least 6th favourite to get 6th place. Bit of a tall order? But as they say, it's the hope that kills you....

 

[CaptainMorgans]

We have to win 4 games more than QPR in 4th place over the next 20 to get above them. Not much chance of that, so I'd so our only outside chance is to catch WBA and Huddersfield. But Boro, Forest, Stoke and Cov are in a better position to do that and will fancy it more than we do. (points on the board trump games in hand) So we're at least 6th favourite to get 6th place. Bit of a tall order? But as they say, it's the hope that kills you....

That's pretty much how I'm looking at it. We're a long way off & it's OK talking about "if we win our 2 games in hand" etc. but then we'd still have to keep on winning & there's not been much precedent set for us doing that. There's also a queue of teams separating us and the play-offs and a lot of them are in pretty decent form themselves.

We're not a bad team and we have some good individual players when you think of our forwards and Ndiaye / MGW. We often dominate games, but we're weak at the back and mentally fragile. We love throwing away leads and that's the sign of a midtable team. Which is all I see us as.

 

[Swannyblade]

We have to win 4 games more than QPR in 4th place over the next 20 to get above them. Not much chance of that, so I'd so our only outside chance is to catch WBA and Huddersfield. But Boro, Forest, Stoke and Cov are in a better position to do that and will fancy it more than we do. (points on the board trump games in hand) So we're at least 6th favourite to get 6th place. Bit of a tall order? But as they say, it's the hope that kills you....

We do get to play QPR twice in less than a month though...so if we go into April in good form, there could be a big points swing in our favour (big IF though)

 

[biggiesablade]

Get your graphs out for the lads