ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Another update after the Peterborough game.
After Hecky's first game (the Bristol City game) I did a few comparison graphs to see if the playoffs were possible/likely.
I was asked to keep them updated, so here we go:-
Graph 1 below takes our Game 20 results (after Bristol City) and adds 2 sets of possible (but optimistic) future results. The black dashed line takes us to 78 points, and almost certain top 6, the blue dashed line takes us to 71 points, the likely minimum that has any chance of top 6.
After last night's win at Peterborough (the red line) we are ahead of both black and blue lines - so on schedule with the forecasts to reach top 6.
Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 26 games we had 42 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 47 in 18/19, so we are currently just 3 points behind where we were in 17/18. That is really interesting, as after 17 games this year (Blackburn) we had 19 points, and in 17/18 after 17 games we had 36 points. So in the last 9 games we have got 20 points and we got just 6 in those 9 games in 17/18. So we have gained 14 points in 9 games. Of course, in Game 17 in 17/18 we won at Burton but Couttsy broke his leg. Just shows how quickly you can close a gap though.
Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, we are now just 2 points behind both 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th), as at this stage we had 41 points in both of those seasons. This was the diverging point in the 2 Blackwell seasons - after Game 26 we got just 1 point in the next 4 games in 09/10 and never really got going again.
Dare to dream, the dream lives on!
Graph 1
Graph 2
Graph 3
After Hecky's first game (the Bristol City game) I did a few comparison graphs to see if the playoffs were possible/likely.
I was asked to keep them updated, so here we go:-
Graph 1 below takes our Game 20 results (after Bristol City) and adds 2 sets of possible (but optimistic) future results. The black dashed line takes us to 78 points, and almost certain top 6, the blue dashed line takes us to 71 points, the likely minimum that has any chance of top 6.
After last night's win at Peterborough (the red line) we are ahead of both black and blue lines - so on schedule with the forecasts to reach top 6.
Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 26 games we had 42 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 47 in 18/19, so we are currently just 3 points behind where we were in 17/18. That is really interesting, as after 17 games this year (Blackburn) we had 19 points, and in 17/18 after 17 games we had 36 points. So in the last 9 games we have got 20 points and we got just 6 in those 9 games in 17/18. So we have gained 14 points in 9 games. Of course, in Game 17 in 17/18 we won at Burton but Couttsy broke his leg. Just shows how quickly you can close a gap though.
Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, we are now just 2 points behind both 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th), as at this stage we had 41 points in both of those seasons. This was the diverging point in the 2 Blackwell seasons - after Game 26 we got just 1 point in the next 4 games in 09/10 and never really got going again.
Dare to dream, the dream lives on!
Graph 1
Graph 2
Graph 3
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