Updated Graphs and Thoughts After Matchday 23 at Kolo’s Wigan

[ucandomagic]

So, it was Monday Night Football for us, and I think it was just a case of take the 3 points and move on. Wigan are already a team in Kolo’s image – solid, athletic, hard-working and very straightforward. Their first touch and passing can only be described as clumsy, and we should have had 3 or 4 by half time. In the end, I was relieved to hear the final whistle. Down our left side Stevens, and to some extent Clark, were just allowing them around the back every time. Ironically their “goal” came from their left – though how a linesman with a completely clear view missed the offside beggars belief. I’m afraid McAtee was back to his “first year playing with sixth formers” standard and Doyle was a huge improvement when he came on. Lowe and Doyle for Stevens and McAtee for me next time – but Enda always seems to be Hecky’s first choice.

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that at the halfway point, after 23 games, on 44 points we are still just behind one other season - Warnock’s 05/06 season – which had a remarkable first half of 52 points. We are, however, now 6 points ahead of Wilder’s two Championship seasons, which were both on 38 points at this stage.

Graph 1


So, as I said last time, this is our best Championship season for a long time, second best since the start of the Premier League era and well ahead of both of Wilder’s seasons. Incidentally, Matchday 23 (away at Derby) was Hecky’s first loss last year after taking over from Slav and starting with 3 straight wins.


Graph 2 is the usual graph, comparing where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now still just 1 point behind my Autos Certain line, and are now 9 points ahead of my Playoff Certain results – can’t be bad!

Graph 2


Next, the League Table as of tonight. A solid second place, with a 5 point gap maintained to Blackburn in 3rd and a 10 point gap to QPR in 7th. I think Watford and Norwich are our greatest threat at present. Coventry home and Blackpool away are next on the menu – we failed to beat either of them on the first encounter, so time to exact some revenge!



Finally, my favourite wintry picture from last year.


Happy Christmas & Slava Ukraini

 

[TCsLoveChild]

Magic work UCDM. Another thing to mention is that our goal difference is "massively" better than the teams below us and is probably worth another point almost. UTB

 

[CaptainMorgans]

We're at the halfway point and it seems we've got the vast majority of the bottom half teams to play at home and then the reverse with the top half teams away.

I don't think it counts for much, you'd like to say 'we should take care of all of that lot at home' but it's not the story of our season and we've actually been very good away from home, whilst struggling with teams coming with spoiling tactics to the Lane.

I can see Watford pulling away and offering the biggest threat to our 2nd place spot. Hopefully they get big offers for some players in Jan and don't strengthen.

 

[Snowflake]

We're at the halfway point and it seems we've got the vast majority of the bottom half teams to play at home and then the reverse with the top half teams away.

I don't think it counts for much, you'd like to say 'we should take care of all of that lot at home' but it's not the story of our season and we've actually been very good away from home, whilst struggling with teams coming with spoiling tactics to the Lane.

I can see Watford pulling away and offering the biggest threat to our 2nd place spot. Hopefully they get big offers for some players in Jan and don't strengthen.

My concern is the 8 away fixtures against the top half of the league. We need to avoid these becoming a poor return, when we have no guarantee of winning at home against the bottom half.

 

[Blade56]

Of the 5 losses 4 were 0-1. Watford goal (like Wigans was offside), we should be disappearing in the distance not winning (or losing) by the odd goal, holding on against Huddersfield / Wigan and losing to Rotherham. Hecky needs to give returning players decent minutes not 5/10 mins to hold on So he has a squad he can rotate and breed competition for places.

 

[ChemEngBlade]

So, it was Monday Night Football for us, and I think it was just a case of take the 3 points and move on. Wigan are already a team in Kolo’s image – solid, athletic, hard-working and very straightforward. Their first touch and passing can only be described as clumsy, and we should have had 3 or 4 by half time. In the end, I was relieved to hear the final whistle. Down our left side Stevens, and to some extent Clark, were just allowing them around the back every time. Ironically their “goal” came from their left – though how a linesman with a completely clear view missed the offside beggars belief. I’m afraid McAtee was back to his “first year playing with sixth formers” standard and Doyle was a huge improvement when he came on. Lowe and Doyle for Stevens and McAtee for me next time – but Enda always seems to be Hecky’s first choice.

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that at the halfway point, after 23 games, on 44 points we are still just behind one other season - Warnock’s 05/06 season – which had a remarkable first half of 52 points. We are, however, now 6 points ahead of Wilder’s two Championship seasons, which were both on 38 points at this stage.

Graph 1
View attachment 149622

So, as I said last time, this is our best Championship season for a long time, second best since the start of the Premier League era and well ahead of both of Wilder’s seasons. Incidentally, Matchday 23 (away at Derby) was Hecky’s first loss last year after taking over from Slav and starting with 3 straight wins.


Graph 2 is the usual graph, comparing where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now still just 1 point behind my Autos Certain line, and are now 9 points ahead of my Playoff Certain results – can’t be bad!

Graph 2
View attachment 149623

Next, the League Table as of tonight. A solid second place, with a 5 point gap maintained to Blackburn in 3rd and a 10 point gap to QPR in 7th. I think Watford and Norwich are our greatest threat at present. Coventry home and Blackpool away are next on the menu – we failed to beat either of them on the first encounter, so time to exact some revenge!

View attachment 149624

Finally, my favourite wintry picture from last year.

View attachment 149625
Happy Christmas & Slava Ukraini

I love this, great work

 

[west_yorks_blade]

Great graphs thanks. Clearly we are having a great season so far.

And yet on a swift drop into and exit from Shoutbox after the game last night, all I could see was a barrage of criticism of Hecky. Maybe there were other views I didn’t see before I flounced, but It’s strange how divisive he still seems to be.

 

[Corazon]

Thanks for doing these. I reckon another two wins and we should be safe.

 

[CopenhagenBlade]

Great graphs thanks. Clearly we are having a great season so far.

And yet on a swift drop into and exit from Shoutbox after the game last night, all I could see was a barrage of criticism of Hecky. Maybe there were other views I didn’t see before I flounced, but It’s strange how divisive he still seems to be.

Hecky appears to be as Divisive as Southgate. Both are doing pretty well and can point to many positives but there’s an underlying feeling that they could be doing better. Personally I’m very pro Hecky, though wish he would use substitutes earlier, and wouldn’t be sad if Southgate left and we see the true potential of the current England team

 

[brownblade]

Great graphs thanks. Clearly we are having a great season so far.

And yet on a swift drop into and exit from Shoutbox after the game last night, all I could see was a barrage of criticism of Hecky. Maybe there were other views I didn’t see before I flounced, but It’s strange how divisive he still seems to be.

Not sure about Shoutbox criticism.
But overall, everyone's a critic these days. Even people that can't spell/remember our own players names think they know better than the qualified manager of the club.

Love the graphs as always ucandomagic

 

[JayGreen17]

The only thing that’s making me nervous is that we have to play 8 of the top 12 away from home.

 

[Champagneblade]

We're at the halfway point and it seems we've got the vast majority of the bottom half teams to play at home and then the reverse with the top half teams away.

I don't think it counts for much, you'd like to say 'we should take care of all of that lot at home' but it's not the story of our season and we've actually been very good away from home, whilst struggling with teams coming with spoiling tactics to the Lane.

I can see Watford pulling away and offering the biggest threat to our 2nd place spot. Hopefully they get big offers for some players in Jan and don't strengthen.

Udinese are in 8th. Hopefully that is enough with the carrot of European football dropping to 6th, in order to take attention away from Watford!

 

[TimofeeVee]

Focus on Coventry, and repeat for each individual game. Keep playing like we are, and nobody will want to face us, home or away.

 

[corner_flag]

Hecky appears to be as Divisive as Southgate. Both are doing pretty well and can point to many positives but there’s an underlying feeling that they could be doing better. Personally I’m very pro Hecky, though wish he would use substitutes earlier, and wouldn’t be sad if Southgate left and we see the true potential of the current England team

Probably a lot of similarities between the two - both are very well liked by their players, having very good emotional engagement. Good tactical coaches. Both possibly lack the hard streak or fox-like cunning to win tough games. That's why you need a "Chrissy Wilder and Alan Knill" type collaboration. No-one person can be simultaneously sensitive and emotive whilst also cold-hearted and cunning. And clever tactics on the training ground are not the same as winning tactics on the pitch. They need a ruthless bastard on the coaching team