Today's games...

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Roygbiv said:
We've got to the point where saying we are 10 points clear with a game in hand and are in great form is just fans trying to reassure themselves. That's how well things are going. People are literally trying to dismiss facts so they can remain pessimistic.

The performances have been average and we may well come unstuck against better teams. We might blow promotion. Nothing is pointing that way but we may collapse. Nobody is saying we are up. The pessimism of our fans though is currently completely unfounded based on every available statistic.
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Not one of the pack are of the quality of Slavs Fulham team when they were promoted. I would have been concerned if there was a team that good and on that basis they simply won’t catch us.
 



Belvedere Blade said:
Reading 2 Watford 2 FT Watford throw 2 point away in 2nd half
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Exactly.

Now one game less.

Each week we chalk off a team that looks like catching us.

Norwich were going to be in the mix. Remember them? Now 16 behind with 17 to play.

Sunderland at one point were the team with momentum. Now 16 behind with 27 to play.

I don't think anyone is tipping Blackburn or Millwall who are 15 behind with a game in hand.

WBA under Corberon were the team to watch. Now 14 behind with 17 to play. Not picking up that on us.

Watford were the main team to worry about with Sarr. Well a few dropped points and they find themselves 13 behind having played a game more. Win that game in hand and it's a point per game for the remaining 16.

So it leaves two - Luton and Boro.

Boro have played a game more. They gained 2 points yesterday but lose last week. Could be back to 13 points when the matches even up.

Luton have the best chance and are averaging the most points per game.

Taking my United tinted spectacles off, you'd look at League One and say Wednesday have put themselves in a great position. They are 6 clear of 3rd with a game in hand. So United, 10 clear will be fine.

I think we'll best Swansea and I don't think Boro will beat us and with 14 to go, United should make it home with 3 or 4 games to spare.
 
Roygbiv said:
If Boro go on to match Forests amazing run at the end of last season (W10, D3, L3) they'll end up on 81 points. That would mean we need 8 wins from 17 to go up. If we can't get that or Boro better it then we don't deserve to go up and they do
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If we win one, draw one lose one, that gives you 1.33 points per game. That still gets you to 81 points more or less.

Does it look we're on anywhere near that sort of form?

If they were to replicate Burnley's form, which I think most would agree, is highly unlikely, they'd get to 83-84 points.

For us to arrive there we'd have to make a shade over 1.5 points per game. We currently average 2 points per game. I'm not seeing that sort of drop off over the remaining matches.

If we continue to average 2 points per game then we'll end up with 92 points. To reach that, Boro would need 44 points in 16 games. To get 44 points that would require 14 wins and 2 draws and no defeats or 15 wins and 1 defeat to get to 45. They'd also need to beat our goal difference, which they currently trial by -12.

Or to put another way, it's taken 30 matches for them to accumulate 10 fewer points than us (and we have done this with 29 games). They then need to accumulate 11 points more than us in just about half as many games (and hope we also lose the game in hand)!

For some they may feel close but there is no indication that United's form is about to fall off a cliff and for all the Boro fans or commentators suggesting they are about to replicate any of the above form I'd file under 'cool story Bro'. Provided we remain focused, it simply ain't happening.
 
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Snowflake said:
That’s a matter of opinion.
AR no longer as he used to be, DB previously with Rotherham (!) and CA has never really produced despite his talent.
They could turn out to be great additions, but they have each replaced someone, so it may be a backward step.
In 11days we may well have a better idea
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Roygbiv said:
In the last 10 they've gained one more point than us. In the last 15 they've lost more games than us
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But in terms of where they are compared to where they were they deffo have momentum.

I can’t remember the last time we played well and the next 5 games are crucial…we play Boro , Watford etc. in those..

After those games we will either rightly be talking about automatic but my fear is the gap and goal difference will be down to a bare minimum.
 
Jan Age said:
But in terms of where they are compared to where they were they deffo have momentum.

I can’t remember the last time we played well and the next 5 games are crucial…we play Boro , Watford etc. in those..

After those games we will either rightly be talking about automatic but my fear is the gap and goal difference will be down to a bare minimum.
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But Boro were down near the bottom.
We've been amongst the top 2 or 3 all season.

This whole discussion about performances being awful is nonsense too.
I admit they aren't always dominant performances but more often than not they are controlled performances.

In many of the games we have won we haven't scored or kept at least a 2 goal lead. When you don't do this games become edgy. But the results have been justified in my opinion.
(QPR aside)

How about we support the team that have got us to 2nd in the table. We would have snatched your arm off last year for this.

I agree though 10 points gap can be closed quick. Just as much as it can be extended.

7 games ago the gap to Blackburn in 3rd was 5 PTS. Now 3rd is 10 PTS.
The gap to Boro was 11 ( played one game more) and the gap to Luton was also 11.

Just gotta take each game as it comes.
 
ton-up said:
Boro and WBA could that, this is my big worry TBH. Like others have said though, we play them both at home, and providing we can string wins together in between those games, it's still with us to lose.
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Interesting that we all see different challengers. I agree that Middlesbrough are the one to watch but have discounted WBA, seeing Watford as another possible.
As you say it’s up to us and the next 10 days may give us a clearer picture.
 
For me, it's just that we haven't looked convincing for quite a while. I sometimes stare at the table in disbelief at how far ahead we are.
I've been a Blade for far too long now to not fear the worst.
 
I heard a heady BBC Tees reporter tell Final Score at the conclusion of yesterday’s win over Blackpool that ‘the Riverside is becoming a fortress‘ and that ‘Middlesbrough are hunting down the top 2’.

Well, I suppose it is part of his job to try to inject some excitement into proceedings, but there isn’t an awful lot of evidence to support his giddiness.

Carrick has certainly engineered a turnaround with 10 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats to produce 31 points from his 14 games in charge, and this has elevated Middlesbrough to the head of the pile of ‘the other 22 teams’ - subject to Luton getting something from their game in hand, of course.

The thing is that the 2 sides above them have taken even more points over those 14 games - United have 33 points from 10 wins and 3 draws whilst Burnley have 39 points from 13 wins and a bouncing at the Lane.

Not much of a “hunting down”.
 
To look at this from another perspective
Are boro a better side than us ?
It's debatable but at the start of the season I'd have us both challenging for play offs
Carrick has come in and done a great job and they certainly have the momentum at the moment

So my point is this
We are over achieving
We are doing amazingly well to be in front of teams like boro especially with the backdrop of the off the pitch issues
So isn't this something to get behind ? To be proud of ?

Or do we just turn Into bedwetting fannies and shrink into the background while we let boro march on to the prem ?
 



I posted this elsewhere but worth noting how weak our bench was relatively yesterday.

Davies, Basham, Clark, Coulibaly, McAtee, Sharp, Marsh.

Boro's bench: Jones ,Mowatt, Fry, Barlaser, Roberts, Crooks, Bola
Watford's bench: João Pedro, Koné, Hamer, Assombalonga, Morris, Hoedt, Adeyemo
WBA's bench: Ajayi, Grant, Swift, Reach, Thomas-Asante, Chalobah, Griffiths
Burnley's bench: Taylor, Twine, Foster, da Silva, Bastien, Churlinov, Casper

We desperately need to get some of the missing back.
 
Champagneblade said:
Now one game less.

Each week we chalk off a team that looks like catching us.
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Borough made 2 points on us yesterday. They only need to better us by 0.5 of a point per game and it’s squeaky bum time.

Yes it’s a tough task for them but we play them in a few weeks and that 10 is 7 And it’s down to 0.35 points a game, still tough but easier.

My concern, is we (HJS) are playing games like we are viewing the league.
We get our nose in front then try to game manage it out, we just don’t seem to have the killer instinct to go for it (second half of Burnley game aside).
We've got our nose in front in the league and we seem to be playing to maintain rather than complete the job.

Watching the chasing pack and they all seem to play more attacking football probably due to a mini league of 4 play off places. However, listening to the boro commentators yesterday they see automatic in their sights. I tipped them way back to be the dark horses stampeding through and it’s like watching a nightmare come true.

My criticism of Hecky is as it was with Wilder, no plan B and poor use of subs. Yesterday we were so predictable, planned moves, slow on the ball and no creativity through the middle or long range shots. Berge should be doing and setting up these two facets of our game and he’s not.

This begs the “what if” we get promoted question, should we give Hecky a chance or give him a golden handshake and bring in an experienced PL quality manager.

Is the off field situation affecting players? I’d guess yes but for 90+ minutes they have to rise above it. It certainly affecting Hecky judging by his grumpy short sharp answer attitude and it’s deffo affecting the fan base.

Think it was Bournemouth a few seasons ago who were storming the Championship and then lost what seemed an unassailable lead, might be wrong. But, this is SUFC and history has shown nothing is easy. I predict we will get there but with no more than a 4 point lead over 3rd.
 
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blade too long said:
Can someone explain the logic that we can't breach a 7 point gap to catch Burnley yet 3 or 4 clubs can catch us up and easily make up 10 points and us having a game in hand
As its baffling me
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Blades fan attitude

1675592736216.gif

Chasing pack attitude

1675592845092.gif
Does that help?

Or put another way we fear our season going like this…..

1675592944921.gif
 
Lupa The Noa said:
Boro will catch us. It's not a massive criticism but we've lost the momentum they currently have.
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Isn't their momentum similar to ours ? Last 9 matches they got 21 points from possible 27 which is good, but we got 23 points from our last 9 out of a possible 27 and only dropped those 4 points in two away draws. Granted it doesn't feel like we're steamrollering teams at the moment, but our form is as good as anybody else's expect Burnley and we're still 10 points ahead of Middlesborough, with a game in hand and only 1/3rd of the season left.
 
Burnley have a local derby with Preston next. They then have Watford at home followed by Luton and Millwall away.

It's more than a little conceivable they will drop points in the next 4 matches.

It's up to United to catch up.

They certainly weren't better than us before the first International break.

For all talk of recent form, the only thing that separates the two is that they did not have a debilitating 6 game run when they had masses of players out injured and didn't win.

They finish top because they were luckier with injuries. Either give them the injury run we had or take it away from us and we're level if not above them.
 
Game_of_Throw-Ins said:
Isn't their momentum similar to ours ? Last 9 matches they got 21 points from possible 27 which is good, but we got 23 points from our last 9 out of a possible 27 and only dropped those 4 points in two away draws. Granted it doesn't feel like we're steamrollering teams at the moment, but our form is as good as anybody else's expect Burnley and we're still 10 points ahead of Middlesborough, with a game in hand and only 1/3rd of the season left.
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That's the problem with some of our fans they think unless we are steam rolling every team we are failing...and they forget s 1-0 win gets 3 points just like 5-0 does
 
Roygbiv said:
People just going to ignore the fact we've gained a point on everyone below us in the last 3 games in their desperation to shit themselves.

You're going too soon. At least wait until teams get to within single figures of us
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Only takes a loss and boro/Luton draw now though Roy.

Or a draw and eather win.
 
Statistically we are in an outstanding position given our circumstances. However, I think some are kidding themselves about recent performances. The lack of drive and technicality on show when compared to us earlier this season doesn't exactly fill me with confidence for the big games. Hopefully we get the proverbial rocket very soon. ⚔️
 
Jan Age said:
But in terms of where they are compared to where they were they deffo have momentum.

I can’t remember the last time we played well and the next 5 games are crucial…we play Boro , Watford etc. in those..

After those games we will either rightly be talking about automatic but my fear is the gap and goal difference will be down to a bare minimum.
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That's purely because we have been top 2 all season though. Our form basically matches Boro it's just that they had such a shit start they've flown up the league whereas we have been top 2 for months.

This was the league just before the World Cup break

Screenshot_20230205-111752~2.png

Boro have flown up the league but still only gained a point on us and have now played a game more
 
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BigBed said:
Only takes a loss and boro/Luton draw now though Roy.

Or a draw and eather win.
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I'll be stunned if we finish 2nd by double figures but I just think right now is not the time to be shitting it when nobody has made any notable ground on us for over 2 months
 
S40BLADE said:
Statistically we are in an outstanding position given our circumstances. However, I think some are kidding themselves about recent performances. The lack of drive and technicality on show when compared to us earlier this season doesn't exactly fill me with confidence for the big games. Hopefully we get the proverbial rocket very soon. ⚔️
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I don't think anybody is saying the performances haven't been average. Until we play the likes of Boro and Watford we just don't know what United will turn up against the better sides. Last season we battered Boro and Fulham but lost to Derby and Stoke
 
Muttley said:
For me, it's just that we haven't looked convincing for quite a while. I sometimes stare at the table in disbelief at how far ahead we are.
I've been a Blade for far too long now to not fear the worst.
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Agree. we've not been convincing but if you check out the infogol site.

This shows that based on the number of chances created and the quality of chances created
we've been the better team almost every match we've played.

So looking at facts....we are consistently slightly better than the opposition.
We seem to alter our standard based on the opposition we're up against....so it's no surprise we're so high in the league.
 



Jan Age said:
100 % this … momentum… we have non and haven’t for a long while … we have the smell of desperation about our performances whilst momentum is most deff with the other teams particularly Boro … the problem is I think we are now in the habit of playing like we do and this will be very difficult to break … especially when teams like Boro will come all guns blazing
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I remember last time we played them similar things were said and we put four past them. We raise our game against the better sides
 
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