Teams that might get relegated from Prem in 23/24

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brownblade

brownblade

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At the time of writing, I think there is a more-than-reasonable chance that any 3 of 10 teams, could get relegated next season. I've actually excluded Brentford but doubtless others would have included them.

All for the sake of discussion and optimism:


FULHAM (great season, plenty of good players, but Marco Silva is traditionally flakey/inconsistent, Mitrovic looks to be getting a bit wild again, Willian is pretty old, Harry Wilson is Harry Wilson, etc).

PALACE (Zaha out of contract, currently managerless and flirted hugely with relegation for awhile this season).

WOLVES (losing their lynchpin R.Neves, great manager but I think there's a very good chance he's pinched by e.g. Spurs, they've laboured since Jiminez' head injury).

WEST HAM (underperforming this season, losing vital player in Rice, Europa Conf final but were struggling in the league so could easily again).

BOURNEMOUTH (comfortable this season but O'Neil is literally a rookie manager and it wouldn't take much of a swing in performance/luck to see them in the bottom 3).

FOREST (don't really need to spell this one out... another big summer of ins and outs, also perfectly possible manager Cooper gets a better offer elsewhere).

EVERTON (scraped to survival this time and financially in big trouble, if Dyche stays you might fancy him to solidify, but he's likely got his hands tied - their squad is not the best).

BURNLEY
SHEFFIELD UNITED
LUTON
 

Always think Crystal Palace will be involved in a relegation but they seem to comfortably reach mid table every season.

Newly promoted teams normally have an excitement and intensity regards their matches in their 1st season.
However any promoted teams that stay up tend to lose that intensity during the 2nd season.

So I'm expecting at least 1 of Forest, Fulham and Bournemouth to be relegated.
You also have to predict Luton too but it doesn't always work out like that.
 
I think the three promoted teams, Bournemouth, Fulham and possibly Palace fill the bottom 6.. could be in any order though. West Ham, Everton Wolves and Forest I expect to be in that next level up Where one could possibly collapse like Leicester into trouble.
 
We'll be the favourites (in any sensible fans eyes to be favourites to go down), followed by Luton (who will probably be the bookies favourites)

Then it just depends. If Everton get a points deduction I highly doubt they'll have enough to overcome it. Also think Palace have been fortunate, depending on what manager they go forward with will make the picture clearer. Then it's between Burnley and Forest
 
I think this is about right. At an outside it's 3/11 but 2 or 3 of those will never be in threat (no idea which ones).

It's only 2 seasons ago Leicester were one of the 8/9 not going down.

The only really safe teams are

Man City
Arsenal
Spurs
Man Utd
Liverpool
Chelsea
Newcastle

Can't see Villa struggling next season either.
 
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robbiez666 said:
This all depends on who these teams sign and the managers they get.

West Ham and Wolves will be fine though, regardless.
Click to expand...
Looks like Wolves will be having to offload a few players and possible manager going to this summer so I wouldn't rule them out of relegation fight next season
1685476898980.png
 
16. Bournemouth 39 points
17. Wolves 38 points
18. Burnley 34 points
19. Sheff Utd 28 points
20. Luton 18 points
 
If Leicester can go down, then half the league can go down. That's a big reason for optimism

As it stands I'd say us, Luton and Wolves will be the 3. But Luton won't be terrible and neither will we - both 25 points or more

Lopetegui should take the Spurs job. A lot depends on who the Wolves manager will be, but they won't get one better than him so that puts them on the back foot, assuming he leaves

Bournemouth could easily go down as well
 

I think Forest will kick in next season. Importantly they've got a number of players who can score and a very good manager.

Bottom six for me are the 3 promoted teams, Everton, Bournemouth and Fulham. A decent odds bet as the 'surprise team' could be Brentford
 
Wolves are screwed apparently, Bournemouth will struggle, then add in second season syndrome for Fulham as well...plus Palace are well overdue a relegation scrap. Plus Luton, Burnley and Forest...

We will no doubt be bottom third most of the season but win our home games against the likes of the above and we will give ourselves a chance..
 
I think they will be ok, but Brentford with Ivan Toney suspended and perhaps opponents starting to come up with plans to limit their set pieces.
 
You can make a case for almost anyone below the top 6 or 7 if you look hard enough.

Spurs - could be in the shit if Kane leaves or either him or Son get injured for any significant period of time. Who else have they got to carry them?
Chelsea - can't get any worse surely.
Brentford - no Toney. Drew a lot of games where if they take their eye off the ball, they could end up a fair few points worse off.
Fulham - see Sheffield United season 20/21
Palace - heavily reliant on Eze and Zaha, not a lot else in their team that should worry anyone
Wolves - really struggled for goals. Can't buy their way much higher than they are.
West Ham - Rice might be off, another team who lacks a decent goalscorer. Bowen might be on a few shopping lists too. Another season in Europe if they win the Conference League might be too much for them to handle if they don't improve their squad.
Bournemouth - Can't defend, plucked a few results out late on but will be relegation fodder for as long as they're in the Premier League.
Forest - Cooper might be on the way out. Could all unravel quite quickly if the owner kicks up a stink about anything.
Everton - terrible team who need to rebuild but the Premier League is all about short term fixes to stay there. They might have to go down to go up again. Villa went down and have now sorted themselves out to a position where their fans and the casual observer would be more used to seeing them.

I don't think that there's too much to fear among this lot. We obviously need to make some changes of our own but if we can rustle up 10 victories and a few draws here and there, we'd be well in with a shout.
 
I think Luton and Burnley will go down, the former because they're not good enough and won't score enough goals, the latter because they have a rookie manager which could go either way, granted he did well last season but staying up is a different matter, and I think we're just as good as them if not better if we retain Ndiaye and Berge - big if I know.

Bournemouth are the most likely but also Wolves for the reasons others have said. I can't see many others in the mix other than flirting with the bottom 5/6. Palace might I guess dependant on who they appoint as permanent manager. We've got the first season factor as a promoted side and the Lane will be rocking every week which will be great. Forest I just think will be too strong to go down and will no doubt continue to strengthen this summer. I can't see them going down next season, sadly. But there's reason for optimism for sure that one or more of the teams that just stayed up this season will be down there again. Can't see Everton struggling as much now they've got Dyche but they are in a bit of a mess saying that.
 
i think wolves could be in big trouble next season as well as bournemouth think the odds of 10/11 for us to get relegated is about right and their spot on with luton theyve no chance of survival imo
 
If Wolves don’t go down next season then it is only postponing the event until the year after. They are in much the same situation as Leicester found themselves in.

This will also eventually happen to Forest. Albeit probably 3/4 years down the line.

Crystal Palace could easily finish in the top half or rock bottom. I think a lot depends on the choice of manager for next season.

My outside pick to struggle is Brighton. Though I don’t think they will go down I do think they will have a season similar to West Ham this year.
 
I think I saw somewhere that the table of the second half of the Premier League season (ie counting the final 19 matches only) had Chelsea in the relegation zone with Leeds and Soton.

The only other major differences from the full season table were that Fulham were far closer to the bottom, and Villa were in a Champions League spot!
 
Unpopular opinion incoming . . . . .
Given our likely transfer budget and the relative expense of attacking players, I think we would be wise to concentrate on defenders and defensive play.
Outside the top 6 the premier league 'table within a table' is roughly ordered by goals conceded.
For example Aston Villa and Leicester have scored the same number of goals (51) but Leicester are going down, while Villa qualify for Europe due to conceding 68 to Villa's 46.
Wolves only scored 31, Chelsea 38 and Palace 40 all finishing comfortably in mid table.
Spurs scored 70 goals but have got nothing to show for it because they conceded 63.
I love a hostile Bramall Lane and believe we can beat anybody at home, but maybe PL status/survival is gained by a more pragmatic route.
 

Fivethirtyeight's stat models would have a league table looking something like this atm. At the start of the season they use the previous season's ending SPI rankings and squad market values with a 2/3 and 1/3 weighting. Loads of flaws of course (they had Norwich and Watford to be promoted from the championship last year 😂) and scope for signings over summer from all teams including us, but it throws off a pretty reasonable order to me IMO, though Everton seem too high.

1685566980839.png
 
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