Should we sack Blackie .... with a twist!? ;)

[Ollessendro]

I stated earlier that we couldn't sack KB because we couldn't afford it, but Lenners point (in a different thread) got me thinking 'Can we afford to sack him?' or more to it 'will we be better off financially if we sack him?'

We've got 19k season tickets holders. If we take the sample on here, from the are you renewing take II thread, and treat it as (roughly) a representative sample of all season ticket holders (I'm happy to debate this) then around 25% of fans will not be renewing. A further 11% said they were undecided and 6% said they would get a season ticket for first time. So we can assume that roughly 25-30% of season ticket holders will not renew next season. This equates to somewhere between 4 and 5 thousand less season ticket holders.

4000x300(cost of season ticket)=£1.2 million and 5000x300=£1.5million.

Giving us a bit of a margin for error (e.g. if sample is not completely representative) we can say that next year United will lose between £1-£1.5 million in revenue from decresing season ticket sales. That is just for the one year.

The average football managers salary in the Championship is £200'000, ranging from 95k to 450k (see the article below) and hce I'd expect Blackwell to be earning around 200k a year. You could argue it would be more (as we are a big club) or less ('cheap as chips' reputation).

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/...princes-and-paupers-of-the-dugout-529555.html

Even if Blackwell is a top earner then there is a call for him to be sacked immediately. If Blackwell was earning top whack (which I severly doubt) then we are still likely to be in a better position by sacking him (and paying him up) than keeping him and suffering the consequences of decresing season ticket sales.

Now there is a major assumption that I have made that is built on a shaky foundation. Would the 25% of season ticket holders not renewing, renew if Blackwell went? That's the million dollar question. Are they fed up with the shite football, or are they fed up with deeper routed problems in the club? Do they blame KB or he is just the falll guy and McCabe is the real culprit. This is the really difficult part. In the who do you blame thread the over half of people plunged for Blackie. But still KM tok a lot of flack. So hypothetically speaking would the 25% renew if KM sacked KM and brought in the 'right manager'? Hmmmm.

Say if KB is earning 200k per year (a fair estimate?) then how many season ticket holders not renewing would be just to sack him? Even as little 10% not renewing would mean we'd lose 600k over 2 years (much more than it would cost to sack Blackwell).

But then would we have to pay compensation to bring in a new manager? if so how much? Most blades choice O'Driscoll would mean paying Donny some money and hence this complicates things.

But hang on a moment we haven't considered non season tickets sales. Our average attendence this season is 25'435 meaning that just over 6000 extra fans (i.e without Blades season tickets) turning up to each game. Now of course some of these are away fans and this makes it really difficult to establish how many extra Blades fans turn up. The average Champiionship away attendence in 2008/2009 was apporx 900 (see link below). This means that there are on average more than 5000 Blades turning up to games who don't have seaon tickets. So what will happen to these fans if KB stays on?

http://www.footballforums.net/forums/showthread.php?t=192946

Well it could be argued either way!? The 3, 4, 5 thousand United fans who don't renew will probably come to some games. Then again more and more united fans are pissed off with Blackwell and hance this figure might drop beciase they don't want to come any more. Our home attendnce since Christmas has been below average suggesting that the nonh season ticket holders are getting fed up with the shit that KB is churning up. hence I would argue that Blackwell staying on would impact upon ticket sales in a negative way next season. Even if it's only 1000 less fans each week then that's a 450k loss (1000x20(quid)x23(no of home games)=460'000) probably equal to the pay off we'd have to give him if we sacked him.

My verdict: SACK HIM!

(There you have Kevin McCabe, you'd be better off financially if you sack him!!!!??? ..... I can feel a letter coming on!? )

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

I've said before I think Blackwell could be talked into it if McCabe and Birch go at him.

He has proven he hasn't the confidence in his own ability to succeed, born out with his resignation after the play off final. Everybody wins, but that has to be when we are sure the playoffs are out of our grasp.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

I think Blackie would walk once the play-offs are gone, he's a decent type of chap.

Whilst ever the play-offs are achievable then would you walk and give up the chance of being a Prem manager?

 

[boo radley]

My verdict: SACK HIM!

(There you have Kevin McCabe, you'd be better off financially if you sack him!!!!??? ..... I can feel a letter coming on!? )

Now now Olli you cannot have it all ways. After all Blackwell HAS shown his loyalty and love for the club and signed a two year extention. Unlike Monty as you say if Monty loved the club he'd sign.

 

[Linz]

If Olle's at work while researching and posting that, I can see KB not being the only one getting his P45 soon

Interesting points raised though.

The costs will be negligible, but less people in the ground does take fewer catering and stewards.

Plus, if KB is the defining factor in people not renewing season tickets, United might get more money by waiting for the renewal date to pass. Then they can charge more for them.

It's also worth noting the link I posted the other day, which suggested that season ticket sales are going to be hit throughout the leagues irrespective of "success".

 

[Ollessendro]

Whilst ever the play-offs are achievable then would you walk and give up the chance of being a Prem manager?

Good question Grumpy. There's a trade off between fall in season ticket revenues and keeping him on whilst we have a chance of promotion.

Maybe KM could extend the deadline until we mathematically can't make the play offs?

In my mind there is no way that we'll finsih top 6. Not becuase I don't like KB, or I'm negative, I just don't think we have the momentum. I was looking at our renmaining fixtures and think at very best we'll pick up another 15 points (more like 8 or 10). Hence, even though we are in with an outside shout of the play offs I'd get rid (probably giving it Speed to the end of the season) now.

 

[SwissBlade]

Great work Olle, I'm sure someone will miss the point and pick holes in your calculations

There's another possible twist...I think the main thing that will worry McCabe is does he still believe Blackie's doing the job he wants him to and does he think that he can get through the dodgy period and meet the targets that he's set for him. If he doesn't then i'm sure he'll know the full implications for the club with season tickets but also with the commercial stuff.

I came over to the dark side last week and want Blackie out now (i still haven't received my free parker pen), but i've already renewed for next year, so that part of the logic doesn't work with me, but I know some will not renew because of Blackie.

The only other thing now is that if attendances (sales) are going to be hit nationwide have we priced too high? On principle alone I set my upper limit to pay for season tickets next season as GBP 300, so it came in £1 under! I actually expected to pay less for next season, but then again theres always a risk that we'll get promotion and the club will have wished they charged more. This is where the likes of the pigs have missed the point.

My other twist is that McCabe wants investment. But us fans see Sheffield United as just teh team in Sheffield. He has his 3 clubs now and can get better commerical deals across the board so perhaps just one club out of 3 under performing isn't a big problem, but with both Chengdu and Fradi both struggling on and off the field along with us he may also think that the flagship club needs a lift... So because of this it could heap yet more pressure on McCabe to take action.

 

[Ollessendro]

Great work Olle, I'm sure someone will miss the point and pick holes in your calculations

there's your cue Darren!!??

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Ollie, I don't often agree with things you say but I have to say that is a great, well put opening post. There's some things I don't agree but it makes interesting reading to your views. Thanks.

I've never been a believer of the 'they can't afford to sack him' argument; if attendances are dwindling, if season tickets are going to fall, if the club is going backwards then something has to change.

I'd sack him for one reason: lack of progress. Even if you consider the injuries/financial side of it and give him the benefit of the doubt, there is still no other sign of any progress. The football isn't improving. The big signings are not improving. Even a fall to 9th would be acceptable in some ways (given the injuries and finances) IF there was some progress being made, some hope for a future move back up. As it stands, I can't see us making the Play Offs and I see us struggling next season (not relegation but for top half).

We've got a great ground, great facilities and a set of fans who - if given some reason - will back the club in their thousands and roar them towards success. The majority of Sheffield kids are ours right now and we need to keep them switched onto the Blades way. We've got the set-up; now who's going to deliver it on the pitch?

 

[DazBlade88]

Good post Ollie, some very interesting points. I agree with most of them.

I think one of the biggest points now, that has only come to me recently, regarding the future Blackwell is what the club needs to do next season. Reading Beighton Blade's thread further down the page about the squad makes you realise how big a job is on the cards next season for whoever is in charge.

Do people see Blackwell as a manager that can rebuild a squad from scratch, on a lower budget, and get the team playing football that is attractive if we're not going to be pushing for the playoffs? Because the likelihood is that next season we will be looking over our shoulder more than above us, and the team will have to be doing something to keep the fans interested if we're in for mid-table mediocrity.

I do not believe that Kevin Blackwell is the man to do the job that is required at the Lane next season. People will ask who we can bring in, but that is not for me to think about, that's for the board. Hopefully they make a better decision than they did the season we were relegated.

 

[Ollessendro]

I'd sack him for one reason: lack of progress. Even if you consider the injuries/financial side of it and give him the benefit of the doubt, there is still no other sign of any progress. The football isn't improving. The big signings are not improving. Even a fall to 9th would be acceptable in some ways (given the injuries and finances) IF there was some progress being made, some hope for a future move back up. As it stands, I can't see us making the Play Offs and I see us struggling next season (not relegation but for top half).

We've got a great ground, great facilities and a set of fans who - if given some reason - will back the club in their thousands and roar them towards success. The majority of Sheffield kids are ours right now and we need to keep them switched onto the Blades way. We've got the set-up; now who's going to deliver it on the pitch?

Agree with all that Wombwell. Daz tocuhes on similar points so se below.

I think one of the biggest points now, that has only come to me recently, regarding the future Blackwell is what the club needs to do next season. Reading Beighton Blade's thread further down the page about the squad makes you realise how big a job is on the cards next season for whoever is in charge.

Do people see Blackwell as a manager that can rebuild a squad from scratch, on a lower budget, and get the team playing football that is attractive if we're not going to be pushing for the playoffs? Because the likelihood is that next season we will be looking over our shoulder more than above us, and the team will have to be doing something to keep the fans interested if we're in for mid-table mediocrity.

I do not believe that Kevin Blackwell is the man to do the job that is required at the Lane next season. People will ask who we can bring in, but that is not for me to think about, that's for the board. Hopefully they make a better decision than they did the season we were relegated.

I agree that Blackwell is NOT the man for the job. I have been saying this for some time and it appears the vast majority of Unitedites are coming round to this now.

I agree that Blackwell has being doing the job with one hand behind his back, but despite this he has proved that he is not the man to take United forward. He has had to put up with his best players being sold under his nose and to some extent is a fall guy for Mccabe and more to it the recession. However Blackwells poor tactics, poor man management, awful signings and no plan B have shown he is out of his depth. The key thing for me though is Blackwell short term-ism. He has been hell bent at trying to get us promoted that he is only thinking about this season. Signing players on short term contracts and using an abundance of loan players shows this.

If Blackwell was planning for the future and showed singins of playing the right football then I personally would give him a break. However he simply doesn't. If he was signing young, decent, lower league or whatever players on permanent deals I'd cut him some slack. Also if we showed signs of playing to our strengths and got the ball on the deck every now and then. However we don't. Warnock built something out of little resources, but I don't believe Blackwell can. That is why he has to go!

Like I said if he was making the righ noises, signing some decent players and looking ahead I'd give him a chance. If he came out and said, I'm building something for the future la dea da, rather than 'I have the best record as a Sheffield United manager EVER, I don't know why the fans dont't like me, it wasn't my fault ... it's the injuries' and all the other bullshit.

His time is up! Get fooked off Kevin.

The costs will be negligible, but less people in the ground does take fewer catering and stewards.

This doesn't really hold up, in fact it highlights more potential losses. If you think you might need an extra person serving food and an extra for every say 200 fans, then the savings really are negligable. If our average attendence falls by 5000 every week than that's say 3000 less having a pie, bovrill, pint, burger or whatever. Then there are club shops sales from people who would normally go to the ground.

In fact this has a whole mulitplier effect. The worse we get the less interested not only Blades get (as covered above) but also everyone. We get less interest and less revenue from the likes of Sky. Look at Newcatle this year!? ok they are an excpetion, but who is going to watch Sheffield United hhof the ball again next year? very few people of course. Our number of times on Sky and BBC will fall and more revenue goes down the drain.

 

[LouTheBlade]

I have to break my vow of silence for this one (just this once) as this was an excellent opening post. Very well researched and justified Olle and pretty much backs up my argument that there are much worse implications than taking a hit on KB's compo. We would be better off paying him off with the extra season ticket sales and giving ourselves half a chance of doing well next season.

I recently refused to post until KB was removed (purely due to running out of expletives!) but I couldn't resist adding to this thread. Excellently justified Olle......trust you to make me break my promise!

 

[barneyboco]

Good question Grumpy. There's a trade off between fall in season ticket revenues and keeping him on whilst we have a chance of promotion.

Maybe KM could extend the deadline until we mathematically can't make the play offs?

In my mind there is no way that we'll finsih top 6. Not becuase I don't like KB, or I'm negative, I just don't think we have the momentum. I was looking at our renmaining fixtures and think at very best we'll pick up another 15 points (more like 8 or 10). Hence, even though we are in with an outside shout of the play offs I'd get rid (probably giving it Speed to the end of the season) now.[/QUOT

It's nailed on we have the right man in Speed check out his words on OS today re: Blackpool game.....

"We want revenge and our home record has been good with seven wins and three draws in the last nine league games here so we can approach the match with confidence.

Anyone who can get results like that must be the man we need!!!

 

[Trigger Blade]

That's exactly what we need!

We're falling of the pace, so it makes sense to employ a manager capable of picking up all 36 of the 30 points still up for grabs ;-)

 

[broomhillblade]

It is interesting that Speed has been wheeled out to do the preview instead of Blackie or Big Sam. No doubt some fans will read into this that Speed is being groomed to take over. However, it may be that the others are fed up of doing it and just said "it's your turn" to Speed. Either that or they were having a day off, or chasing some more loanees.

However, if Speed does the post-match interview then that will raise a few eyebrows!

 

[rachyblade]

I think Blackie would walk once the play-offs are gone, he's a decent type of chap.

Whilst ever the play-offs are achievable then would you walk and give up the chance of being a Prem manager?

He tried that last season.

 

[SotonBlade]

...Do people see Blackwell as a manager that can rebuild a squad from scratch, on a lower budget, and get the team playing football that is attractive if we're not going to be pushing for the playoffs?...

I think the fact we've had so many loan players in and out this season, proves that Blackie can't build a squad on a budget. As for playing attractive football, i think this seasons performances speak for themselves and if rumours of unrest between Blackie and a handful of players are true then that won't help matters in terms of confidence on the pitch and in their own play. This leads to aimless long balls, rather than a confident, to feet passing game.

 

[DuncDisorderly]

(There you have Kevin McCabe, you'd be better off financially if you sack him!!!!??? ..... I can feel a letter coming on!? )

You make a well constructed argument, but you have missed out quite a lot of factors that might change the outcome, or at least should be considered.

You make an estimate that 25% of the clubs ST holders won't renew and that this is directly linked to Blackwell being the manager and you build a very detailed case off that assumption, but let me put some alternative views as I'm not sure that link is quite so tight as you suggest.

Football fans are notorious for what I term 'Greener over there' Syndrome. Its that strongly held belief that whatever you haven't got is obviously and unquestionably better than what you have now. This reaches fever pitch during the season, but then it subsides, there is a short period of reflection when we decide it wasn't that bad, and the eternal optimism in us (yes, even in some of you) takes over. Regardless of the blather, ST's are bought after all.

There will of course be ST's that won't be bought this year too. Those of casualties of the economic situation, and they wont be bought if we'd got Capello as manager, so there will be a percentage that will not happen regardless. In fact I suspect that some of the 'wont renews' aren't completely because of the style football, but because times are harder and it makes it easier to blame the football rather than the economics.

There is another factor to those who say our style of football is to blame. Why is it just our style of football? There are two teams on the pitch, and if one of them is playing long balls to the channels and chasing in midfield, do you think that makes it conducive to the other team as well? Funny that when we play 'good football' it is often because the other team are trying to as well. Thats not to say that we try to stroke it around the park all the time. We don't. Some of the football has been pretty dire, but look at the league and tell me other than WBA and maybe Donny, who are the cultured footballing sides? How many really good football matches do you see in the CCC?

The final assumption is that the financial benefit of sacking Blackwell would be worth doing it. I doubt that Kevin McCabe would act oin that case alone. What ever you think of Kevin Blackwell, and I know for some of you it's 'not much', despite all the issues at the club, all the loan players, all the financal questions in the background, all the injuries and everything else, we are still 7th in the league with a chance of play-offs. If it was me deciding the managers future, I would be looking for if the players are still playing for him (they are), and does he still have the appetite for the job (he does), and is he still capable of achieving the target (he is). Thats why the clamour for changing the manager and replacing him with (you know we'd end up with)Ian Dowie or some other know nowt is disappointing. I understand why people feel like that but I would urge you not to set your mind so strongly against him.

My view is the current issues are more in the boardroom than the managers office. A bit of visible direction wouldn't go amiss, but I guess that we will see in the summer what the plan is for the club going forward. I sincerely hope it isn't loanees by the bus load.

By all means have doubts; we all have doubts, but keep supporting the team, turn up when you can and don't allow yourself to get sucked into the self fulfilling prophesy of the downward spiral as those in S6 have done. Don't say 'Sack him! It can only get better'. It can get a lot worse...

 

[BornOnShorehamStreet]

Excellent chin up type post there duncs!

Nice one

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Speed did the pre and post match interviews and stood out from the bench for 80 mins. Blackie only left the bench for the last 10 mins. What does that do to your conspiracy theory?

 

[broomhillblade]

Speed did the pre and post match interviews and stood out from the bench for 80 mins. Blackie only left the bench for the last 10 mins. What does that do to your conspiracy theory?

The thick plottens....

 

[super_pig]

message to kevin mccabe.. if we get SOD ill be down to renew in ten minutes mate

 

[super_pig]

>and tell me other than WBA and maybe Donny
you've answered your own question.. why can't we have sheffield united in that esteemed(?) list?
olle has made a really good point here.. whilst KB was using other peoples players he did an ok job, but now he has had to make his own team he has struggled.. the management of the transfer deadlines and all of these loan players has shown poor management skills IMO

 

[Ollessendro]

You make a well constructed argument, but you have missed out quite a lot of factors that might change the outcome, or at least should be considered.

You make an estimate that 25% of the clubs ST holders won't renew and that this is directly linked to Blackwell being the manager and you build a very detailed case off that assumption, but let me put some alternative views as I'm not sure that link is quite so tight as you suggest.

Football fans are notorious for what I term 'Greener over there' Syndrome. Its that strongly held belief that whatever you haven't got is obviously and unquestionably better than what you have now. This reaches fever pitch during the season, but then it subsides, there is a short period of reflection when we decide it wasn't that bad, and the eternal optimism in us (yes, even in some of you) takes over. Regardless of the blather, ST's are bought after all.

There will of course be ST's that won't be bought this year too. Those of casualties of the economic situation, and they wont be bought if we'd got Capello as manager, so there will be a percentage that will not happen regardless. In fact I suspect that some of the 'wont renews' aren't completely because of the style football, but because times are harder and it makes it easier to blame the football rather than the economics.

There is another factor to those who say our style of football is to blame. Why is it just our style of football? There are two teams on the pitch, and if one of them is playing long balls to the channels and chasing in midfield, do you think that makes it conducive to the other team as well? Funny that when we play 'good football' it is often because the other team are trying to as well. Thats not to say that we try to stroke it around the park all the time. We don't. Some of the football has been pretty dire, but look at the league and tell me other than WBA and maybe Donny, who are the cultured footballing sides? How many really good football matches do you see in the CCC?

The final assumption is that the financial benefit of sacking Blackwell would be worth doing it. I doubt that Kevin McCabe would act oin that case alone. What ever you think of Kevin Blackwell, and I know for some of you it's 'not much', despite all the issues at the club, all the loan players, all the financal questions in the background, all the injuries and everything else, we are still 7th in the league with a chance of play-offs. If it was me deciding the managers future, I would be looking for if the players are still playing for him (they are), and does he still have the appetite for the job (he does), and is he still capable of achieving the target (he is). Thats why the clamour for changing the manager and replacing him with (you know we'd end up with)Ian Dowie or some other know nowt is disappointing. I understand why people feel like that but I would urge you not to set your mind so strongly against him.

Interesting response Dunc and I am happy that someone has challenged my original post. But can I ask you Dunc, did you actually read all my post? Or did you just scan it or read the first half of it? I'm not being an arse, but I clearly address the issues you raised in your response. Of course the argument is not clear cut and this is a rough excercise based on non concrete assumptions. However, much of the best research has to make assumptions and I feel that mine are valid. I'll attempt to defend them.

First of all the reason why I chose 25% as a figure for people who wouldnt renew is because 25% of the season ticket holders on this forum said they would not renew next season. I am assuming that this is a representative sample. I don't see any reason why the people on this forum would be significantly different from the whole population of United fans. Do you? (this partly answers your 1st bold point).

(to contunue to answer your 1st bold point) As I said I give thought to the points you raised and address the issues.

Now there is a major assumption that I have made that is built on a shaky foundation. Would the 25% of season ticket holders not renewing, renew if Blackwell went? That's the million dollar question. Are they fed up with the shite football, or are they fed up with deeper routed problems in the club? Do they blame KB or he is just the falll guy and McCabe is the real culprit. This is the really difficult part. In the who do you blame thread the over half of people plunged for Blackie. But still KM took a lot of flack. So hypothetically speaking would the 25% renew if KM sacked KM and brought in the 'right manager'? Hmmmm.

We can safely say that some of those non renewing are because of Blackwell and that they would renew if he was sacked. Do you agree with that? The question is of course how many? Or what percentage? I am not for one minute suggesting that the full 25% are in this boat. But even if 7% of fans don't renew because of him (and would bu another if he was removed) then it is (financially) worth sacking KB.

(ie. if KB earns 200k a year, 1330(7% of all a/t/ holders)x300(price)=£399'000,which is roughly the same as paying the rest of his contract).

Now I think that we can safely assume that (at least) 7% of season ticket holders not renewing is because of Blackwell. That is 28% of the people who said they wouldn't renew. Why do I think we can assume this? Because in the 'who do you think you is to blame' thread the majority of people blamed Blackwell (55% balmed Blackwell).

Your point about 'grass is greener on the other side' is a valid one, but I address this in my argument. People might be frustrated and change their mind etc etc. However (as my calcualtion above shows) only 7% of fans not renewing (because of KB) would be enough to financially justify sacking him. This moves us nicely onto your second bold point. (Note here that I haven't taken into account the potential loss of other sources of revenue that could be lost (non season ticket holders, shop revenue, food and beverages etc) which could easily be argued to have a negative financial impact).

This is where we fundamentally disagree and it is simply a matter of opinion, but I satarted this threading assuming Blackwell should be sacked on merit and was evaluating the financial aspect of this. I agree with you that KB wouldn't just sack KB on financial grounds, this is not what I was saying. This thread was started in response to us being in a (hypothetical) situation where KM wants to sack KB but feels it would hurt us financially. I personally believe that KB's time is up and hence wanted to explore the financial aspect (and see if we potentially could sack him if we wanted to). Note here that I am not interested in bebating the merits of Blackwells leadership and more interested in whether we can afford to sack him or not.

 

[boo radley]

So as asked ealier Olli does his loyalty come in to it? I suspect your answer would be no and these descisions should be made on his ability to produce on the pitch?

 

[Ollessendro]

So as asked ealier Olli does his loyalty come in to it? I suspect your answer would be no and these descisions should be made on his ability to produce on the pitch?

Sorry Boo missed that.

Loyalty wouldn't necessarily be something I look for in a manager, so the answer is no (you're right). The decision would be based on a host of decisions, but mostly his ability to manage the team and create success.

 

[boo radley]

Sorry Boo missed that.

Loyalty wouldn't necessarily be something I look for in a manager, so the answer is no (you're right). The decision would be based on a host of decisions, but mostly his ability to manage the team and create success.

So any financial reason to get rid of Blackwell should not be considered.
Success on the pitch is obviosly open to debate/opinion.

 

[LouTheBlade]

Loyalty wouldn't necessarily be something I look for in a manager, so the answer is no (you're right). The decision would be based on a host of decisions, but mostly his ability to manage the team and create success.

What do we measure as success though Olle? If you listen to the muppets on RS our current manager has been massively successful under "difficult circumstances"

It depends what your definition of success is. Mine is a playoff place at minimum but others make excuses.

 

[Ollessendro]

So any financial reason to get rid of Blackwell should not be considered.
Success on the pitch is obviosly open to debate/opinion.

What on earth are you talking about?

Of course the financial reason has to be considered, but along with the success factor. This thread was instigated because many (including myself) wondered whether we could afford to sack Blackwell. Some clubs simply can't afford to sack their manager (e.g. Liverpool) and I wanted to know if United were in that boat.

What do we measure as success though Olle? If you listen to the muppets on RS our current manager has been massively successful under "difficult circumstances"

It depends what your definition of success is. Mine is a playoff place at minimum but others make excuses.

It depends on the circumstances Lou, but in our case promotion. It is usually results, but depends on resources. With the resources Blackwell has had I would expect promotion.

This is quickly turning into a should we sack Blackwell on merit thread and this is NOT the point of this thread! I'll say it again, my views on KB are clear (I think he should be sacked for being a rubbish manager) but I wanted to explore whether we could afford to sack him. In exploring this I have actually uncovered that it would be beneficial to sack him (in terms of finance and revenue).

 

[LouTheBlade]

It depends on the circumstances Lou, but in our case promotion. It is usually results, but depends on resources. With the resources Blackwell has had I would expect promotion.

This is quickly turning into a should we sack Blackwell on merit thread and this is NOT the point of this thread! I'll say it again, my views on KB are clear (I think he should be sacked for being a rubbish manager) but I wanted to explore whether we could afford to sack him. In exploring this I have actually uncovered that it would be beneficial to sack him (in terms of finance and revenue).

I think it's time for a new man and I think the future financial implications of not bringing a better manager in far out-weigh the financial implications of paying KB off and removing him from his post.

If we consider that we were able to pay transfer fees for Mark Yeates, Richard Cresswell, Ched Evans etc. in our current financial state, then I don't see how paying off KB's contract is unfathomable. We're going to pay him the money whether he goes or stays but wouldn't it be better to take a little hit now for the sake of an improvement on the pitch? One that might (you never know) see us go up to the PL?!

I see little point in keeping KB on beyond the end of the season just because "we can't afford to sack him" if we're going to keep him and let him spend money on more players, only to result in the same level of success.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of those people who advocates the constant change of managers and wants them out every time it goes a little pear shaped but I think he's had a fair crack at it now and things show no sign of improving. Mainly because he struggles under these sort of circumstances, as has been proved before.

My verdict, let him continue until the end of the season and then review it. If things stay pretty much the same, which is likely the case - then replace him. Simple as that. I don't see that financial reasons even come into the argument personally.