as a recently semi retired business analyst I now have enough time on my hands to prove to my wife I really am as sad a git as she thinks
although interesting published annual accounts (especially of subsidiaries), are a snapshot, backward looking and give you virtually no insight to the true state of a business or the reasons why seemingly stupid operating decisions are made
what you really need are the management accounts, business plan, operating budget and even then some further background to help understand the physicals behind the numbers / decisions
now, if anybody has the strictly confidential documents listed above, outside of the SUFC management, I would be surprised and also worried for the jobs of anybody who has leaked them
as an outsider you can only guess the real situation but it is also possible to create a 'business synthetic' by applying known industry norms and averages
as i had a couple of 'sad git' hours free this evening i thought i would create a synthetic SUFC budget
so for better or worse here is my analysis and a few thoughts from an oxfordshire exile - caveat is that synthetics are always wrong but with luck they turn a guess into a slightly more educated one
a key issue for the business owners will be where the club stands against the fair play wage cap (which is 60% of revenue)
- the reason for this is that it materially changes the cash injection needed to fund new players or indeed keep existing ones (my guess is that the murphy decision, if it was financial, was more likely to have been more driven by the wage cap than the capital investment in the pitch)
my summary below (i will share my detail spreadsheet if another sad git wants it) suggests that SUFC are operating at around the 60% cap level this season - which compared to previous years is a really good business position
however, as a rule of thumb this means that if SUFC want to strengthen the squad in the JTW, the amount of cash the owners will have to inject is roughly double the wages paid to new players
this is made up of wages + fringe costs (about17% for NI & pension) + revenue scale up for fair play limit (66%)
as an example for another £500,000 in wages the owners will have to inject the £500k wages + fringe of £86k + scale up of £389k = £975k
sadly as a fan, if i was advising as a consultant, i would recommend extreme caution of significantly increasing the wage bill with new player additions unless it guaranteed promotion - which in previous years it hasn't
i would also have concerns of permanent signings impacting future years i.e. Hammond (remember players are not just for Christmas)
also wrong attitudes can destroy team spirit (which is currently seems better than i can remember) and this also cautions against lots of new faces
so as a business analyst i expect the owners to make some money available (in principle for loanees) but as a good business practice set strict spending limits for the management team
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