Second Season Syndrome

[ChipButtyBlade]

We have got to get a lethal striker who can convert the chances we make,the goals for this season is quite low for the league position that we are in,can we hope expect the defence to be as strong next season,doubt it we are bound to leak more goals next season,we have been lucky with injuries and suspensions,so the need for a lethal finisher is important.

 

[HammerInPeace]

Since the PL started (26 seasons), 9 teams out of 78 have been relegated in their 2nd season. 11.5%
34 teams out of 78 have been relegated after one season. 43.5%
Looking like Villa & Norwich could make it 36..
So, if you survive the first year, it's decent odds that you'll survive the second.
The third season mind...

 

[Charlieblade]

I fully expect us to become established as a top half/pushing for Europe side over the next few years as we incrementally build a squad to do just that. We are immensely lucky that our manager is also a supporter, keep hold of him, as I think we will, and the next few years will be the best in the club’s history.

I think it’s a bit more than luck and Wilder. Every element of our success is down to the harmony at every level.
Fitness, conditioning, coaching and the application of sound, common sense principles, in the way the various functions work together, almost seamlessly. How much of that is down to Wilders fingerprints everywhere you look?
The harder you work, the luckier you get, except for VAR. No surprise that Wilder hasn’t won that battle yet, when the referees and the PL are still coming to terms with it.
I do worry sometimes at the immensity of the task that Wilder has given himself. At least he’s never bored.

 

[BladeByChoice]

I’ve bumped this up for no other reason than I’ve been reading second season syndrome rumblings in other threads this week.

So, purveyors of negativity, fearers of the football gods, pessimists of all things Sheffield United and misery guts of all kinds.

Please accept second season syndrome is bollocks, the data says its bollocks, the stats say its bollocks, CWAK’s record says its bollocks.

So can we please, for once and for all put this to bed and think of something else to moan about.

 

[Champagneblade]

Irrespective of recruitment, I think we have more players who will be better than those who will get worse.

The defence are all good ages. Even Enda at 30 is more in peak territory than over the hill decline.

Berge, Norwood, Fleck, Lundstram, Osborn, and if he stays, Freeman are all good coming towards peak or upward trajectory ages.

Up front this year will have done McBurnie good and he's only getting better. If Mousset stays he's also at a good age. You can see Sharp at his age declining slightly but he's never been reliant on pace. McGoldrick is an interesting one. He also doesn't rely on pace and I don't see his vision dropping. If anything he will probably enter next year with more self belief.

We just need to add the right smattering of quality. A short summer may not do us that much harm. There isn't much time for a total overhaul and bedding in which some teams may wish to perform.

 

[Colombia Blade]

I had a look at some stats too but over the last 20 years...

Since 1999, 60 teams have been promoted to the Premier League. Of those 60, 24 were relegated in their first season (40%).

9 were relegated in their second season (15%).

9 have never been relegated since their last promotion (15%) - Man City is the oldest from 2002, followed by Southampton and West Ham from 2012.

Two promoted teams, Man City and Leicester, have gone on to win the league (3% for the optimists!)

Only including those who have been relegated since their last promotion, and discounting those who were relegated in their first season (which is the position we are in), 33% were relegated in their second season.

The average number of seasons in the Premier League for a team that survived their first season (discounting teams that have not been relegated) is 5.4 seasons.

So, we have already beaten a probability of 40% by surviving last season and next season we have a probability of 67% of avoiding "second season syndrome".

Personally I prefer to think of the 3% chance of being champions at some point in the next few seasons!

 

[BladeByChoice]

What would be really interesting is where the teams that stayed up finished in their first season and where they finished in the second season......

loads of stuff online from this century, here's the early stuff.

 

[gordoncharles]

2nd Season Syndrome doesn't really exist but neither is there such a thing as an "established Premier League club" apart from the obvious 6 + Everton.

Outside of those, of the other 13 clubs, Southampton and West Ham will be in their 9th consecutive season when the next one starts and Palace will be in their 8th. But all of those seem to be in a relegation battle practically every season.

Stoke went down in their 10th season, as did Sunderland. Other clubs who've been relegated after fairly long spells are Fulham (13), Middlesbrough, Blackburn and Bolton (11)

West Brom will be in their fifth separate spell since 1992, the longest they've stayed up is 7 seasons.

 

[Colombia Blade]

I think that second season syndrome only applies to teams that just managed to avoid the drop in their first season

Nearly...

Over the last 20 seasons, of the 9 teams that were relegated in their second season, 4 had finished 17th in their first season and 2 finished 16th which makes up 67% of those suffering "second season syndrome". The other three to be relegated had finished 5th (Ipswich 2000/01), 8th (Reading 2006/07) and 9th (Birmingham 2009/10). So a few cautionary tales there.

No team who finished 17th in their first season survived the second season which doesn't bode well for Villa.

The average position for teams who had a second season in the Prem is 13.4 which is almost identical for the average second season position for those who finished their first season in the top 10 (13.5).

Of the 36 teams to have a second season, 12 (33%) finished higher the next season and 22 (61%) finished lower.

Leicester won the league in their second season...

 

[blade67]

2nd Season Syndrome doesn't really exist but neither is there such a thing as an "established Premier League club" apart from the obvious 6 + Everton.

Outside of those, of the other 13 clubs, Southampton and West Ham will be in their 9th consecutive season when the next one starts and Palace will be in their 8th. But all of those seem to be in a relegation battle practically every season.

Stoke went down in their 10th season, as did Sunderland. Other clubs who've been relegated after fairly long spells are Fulham (13), Middlesbrough, Blackburn and Bolton (11)

West Brom will be in their fifth separate spell since 1992, the longest they've stayed up is 7 seasons.

This is the facts of the matter.

the 25% of teams relegated in the 2nd season is about the same as all the teams you refer to who are "established", but not in the elite.

Once you discount Man U, Man C , Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton. Only Man City have been relegated out of that lot and they won't be going down any time soon.

that leaves a 3 in 13 chance of going down which is about 25%, so exactly the same as a team in their 2nd season (Based on the OP's stats, which look sound to me)

So we are one of 10 teams fighting it out with the 3 promoted sides to stay up. Currently Leicester and Wolves seem exempt but it only a couple of years ago Leicester found themselves in a scrap and key injuries or problems with key players can see sides suddenly drop away.

The success or otherwise of our second season is entirely down to CWAK use of the budget they are given to strengthen the side/squad.

 

[Bladezz]

Success in the PL is down to success of utilising the budget.

Managers like CW have worked there way up the leagues so we know he is a fantastic manager. But there aren’t many fraud managers in the PL anymore.

The teams that spend and spend well will do well. Our whole future relies on our recruitment.