Balham Blade
S24SU Seer
Just seen this...Was looking at the stats, just depressing how bad it has been:
Wilder has been an improvement, but it's still poor and in the whole season we have only managed a single game where we have comprehensively scored more xG than our component and we managed to lose that one!
On xG (taken from Flashscore, rightly or wrongly) we should have been on 2 points under Heckingbottom with statistical draws against Man U (1.44-1.03) and Wolves (1.04-1.35). We should have taken 7 points from Wilder's 10 games (draws against Brentford (0.77-0.72), Villa (0.87-0.52), West Ham (2.05-2.18) and Palace (1.29-0.72) and a victory over Luton (2.78-0.58).
You mention that there's only been one game where we've comprehensively scored more xG than our opponents: the same is true of Luton. Their only significant xG win was against Brighton (2.59-0.76) and that game was effectively over after 3 minutes. The difference is that Luton weren't in the same position three years ago and they believe they can get something out of any game whereas we seem to fold when things go against us.
Burnley, FWIW, have yet to outscore anyone by 2 goals on xG, even us (1.41-0.38).
There's loads more. Both Burnley (vs Fulham) and Luton (vs us and Everton) have won games they should arguably have lost; both we (vs Luton) and Luton (vs Chelsea) have lost games we should have won.
Final note: our goals conceded vs xG, on the flashscore model at least, is embarrassing. That's a 30% underperformance.
Performance vs expectation, bottom 3*
*excluding Everton from this as they're only in the bottom three by virtue of a points deduction.