Results Against Top Teams Not Looking Too Clever Again

[Kenilworth]

The goal shy nature of our current squad of players is going to be a far greater liability against teams competing for promotion and play off places than it is against the also-rans of the division. Like last season this is panning out to be our achilles heal.

If we consider that last year we suffered from an inability to get results from the teams in and around us at the top then the set of results so far this season isn't making pretty reading either. Of the teams in the current top 9 we have played 4 games. Of the 12 points available from these games we have accrued only 3 - that's a 25% return or to put it another way 0.75 points per game which is a long way short of a target of 2 points per game on average required for promotion.

If we have 16 games to cover from those sides around us and maintain an average 0.75 points per game as we have done from the first 4 of those ties we will get 12 points from a possible 48 - if we average 2 points per game from our other fixtures, of which there will be 30, it follows that out final points total will be 72. That's a fair number short of the target of 92 we may need for automatic and it's only just about scraping into play off positions.

It will clearly be much harder to score against the better teams in this division so playing tactics that are founded solely on a solid defence, and hoping we pick up the odd goal against the run of play (like at Preston) is likely to result in more results like Saturday - when our only hope of getting something out of the game appears to be getting a draw as we managed at Swindon.

Something has to change in the playing squad or the tactics or else this will be the outcome of this season's exertions - and I am not just talking about Long, Maguire and Kitson leaving in January because we have lost touch with the leaders in the pack.

Stevenage is the big test at the weekend. They got thumped at home at the weekend so I expect they will respond for their pride and their manager. They certainly have goals in them and will come to BDTBL without any fear. The real question is - will we?

 

[Micalijo]

Decent stuff Ken lad.

Big day for Danny on Saturday. The sutpifying boredom of this season leads me to make the biggest insult I can possible make in that it is reminding me of Blackwell's time. Thank god Danny is showing no signs of that man's disgusting obnoxiousness but another turgid display on Saturday and the booing will commence.

Love United Hate McCabe.

 

[mattbianco1]

Of the teams in the current top 9 we have played 4 games. Of the 12 points available from these games we have accrued only 3 - that's a 25% return or to put it another way 0.75 points per game which is a long way short of a target of 2 points per game on average required for promotion.

Interesting how you only look at the top 9. I realise if you had included the 10th, 11th & 12th teams you wouldn't have been able to start a "negative" thread. Fair play to you for think outside the box... Or "Inside the top 9" so to speak

Here is how we faired against the top 12 so far

1. Tranmere - Not Played
3. Stevenage - Not Played
4. Crawley - Not Played
5. Notts County - As the game progressed we should've won but at that point in time Notts County were extremely high up and before the game a draw was a great result.
6. Swindon A - Good Result
7. MK Dons A - Good result but for the last minute mistake decision by the ref.
8. Brentford - Not Played
9. Doncaster - Bad result!
10. Preston - Won 3pts
11. Yeovil - Won 3pts
12. Bournemouth - Won 3pts

So, on that...

Two games we were expected to lose we drew (Donny & Notts) so they can be seen as bad results.

Two games where we maybe shouldve lost (Swindon & MK) we took a point from one and nearly both.

Another way to look at it. From a possible 21pts we have taken over half (12pts).

I'm struggling here to see a point to this thread

 

[mattbianco1]

Of the teams in the top 12 we've played we have taken 7pts from a possible 12pts AWAY. That's good by anybody's standards.

5 from 9 at home, the Donny game being the biggest cause for concern.

 

[Kenilworth]

.

Interesting how you only look at the top 9. I realise if you had included the 10th, 11th & 12th teams you wouldn't have been able to start a "negative" thread. Fair play to you for think outside the box... Or "Inside the top 9" so to speak

Here is how we faired against the top 12 so far

1. Tranmere - Not Played
3. Stevenage - Not Played
4. Crawley - Not Played
5. Notts County - We drew 1-1 when we should have buried them.
6. Swindon A - Good Result - Fair play, I would have taken that before the game
7. MK Dons A - How one earth was this a good result? They should have had a pen earlier when Harry slid in and could have been sent off.
8. Brentford - Not Played
9. Doncaster - Bad result! We were shocking and so were they
10. Preston - Won 3pts - smash and grab, I am pleased to say
11. Yeovil - Won 3pts - as expected, surely
12. Bournemouth - Won 3pts - the only game where we have scored more than 2 in a game

I'm struggling here to see a point to this thread

I have taken the current top 9 as it involves the top two automatic places plus the four play of places plus another three as the range of teams that generally challenge for play off places. There are 24 teams in the division so I have taken the more than the top third in my sample. I don't see what is wrong with that as a representative number at this stage of the season.

With 17 games already gone (more than a third of the season) you could argue that our position is false considering that we have only played four times against this top third. Of the games played against teams in this sample we have scored the sum total of how many goals? That's correct - ONE!

So in exactly what way am I trying to "spin" this to a negative? Surely I am just pointing out that there are serious grounds for concern and that no amount of viewing through rose tinted glasses makes the situation any better. You have to see that our current position is based on results against the poorer teams in this league. If we continue the trend already demonstrated against the top teams we are going to come up very short indeed. Now here is the crux - I have seen absolutely nothing to suggest we can do anything different to beat those teams in and around us. Yes we are resolute, yes we are organised and solid, yes we are hard to break down and I cannot fault the effort from the lads - however, we have just lost half of the back four that has been so consistent this season - not just for the odd game but for some considerable time (certainly in the case of McMahon) so we have to draft in inferior options. How is that going to alter our chances of gaining better results if all we can do is defend and hope to grab the odd goal to win the points? I am sure that you will recall the effect on results when we lost two of the back four last season (after the Oldham game).

As for your 7 from 12 debate away from home - now that is cherry picking. Two games out of that sample were Preston and Yeovil - which account for 6 of those points - and are at the lowest end of your revised sample. Are you seriously suggesting that Yeovil or Preston will be challenging for automatic come the end of the season? Preston maybe a play off hopeful - but nothing more than that. More worryingly you have to recognise that we have to play 6 of the top 9 away - and we are in the top 9 so its actually 6 out of 8.

It's a simple fact - if you cannot score more than the opposition, you cannot win. If all you can manage is no goals or one goal a game and only one goal from open play in the last 6 matches then the chances of you winning are drastically reduced.

Keep the shades on Matt and the coat hanger in your mouth - let's hope the realism of the situation passes you by and you can say "I told you so" at the end of the season. I wouldn't hold yer breath though feller - not unless there are changes to the current squad and tactics employed.

 

[super_pig]

for christ's sake it's like f**king groundhog day with the same suspects as the Blackwell era ooh we're doing well.. don't you f**king mugs ever learn

but we're still top.. then
but we're still unbeaten.. then
but we're still in the playoff places.. then
but we're still out of the relegation spots.. then
but .. but.. bollocks we've been relegated

2010-11 season
this will all end in tears ah tell thi'

 

[blade too long]

so one defeat , to a very dubious penalty has condemned us to being here for ever
a cracking argument , this defeat has at least pleased the super negative doom merchants that cant wait to pounce on the slightest set backs
purveyors of the I told you it ll all go tits up theories must be having a street party

weve lost a game , gee never happened before
46 games seasons even runaway winners of the title have lost up to 10 games and gained automatic its once been 12. our ratio is more in the 5-7 category

 

[Ballinpigpubs13]

If we could deliver a half decent corner above knee high, we'd be awesome.

 

[metalblade]

so one defeat , to a very dubious penalty has condemned us to being here for ever
a cracking argument , this defeat has at least pleased the super negative doom merchants that cant wait to pounce on the slightest set backs
purveyors of the I told you it ll all go tits up theories must be having a street party

weve lost a game , gee never happened before
46 games seasons even runaway winners of the title have lost up to 10 games and gained automatic its once been 12. our ratio is more in the 5-7 category

I don't know where these so called "super negative doom merchants" have pounced on this set back apart from in your imagination, you really are one sad muther. More like it is you who can't wait to pounce on any comment that doesn't sit right with your warped mentality, most comments on our dire performances of late have in my opinion been rather reserved and have come from a broad spectrum of posters. No we are not playing good at the moment most can see that, accept that and comment on that, you on the other hand come on here to have a pop at anyone who might not share your view that we will be challenging for a place in Europe in 2 years.

 

[mattbianco1]

I'd hate to see the threads if we had only won 1 in 17

 

[blade too long]

well winning 4-1 , will no doubt be a freak result or we can focus on the goal we conceded
my point is whereas I tend to look for positives. and that doesnt include us being in europe in 18 months , just steady progress. is all Ive ever professed we are capable of whereas 1 defeat in 18 seems to be inadequate to some people,
I dont claim we are unbeatable or cant falter , but I dont see whats to be gained from moaning from dusk till dawn when we are sat in one of the automatic promotion berths, if we were where pompey are , maybe

 

[Pinchy]

It's rather pointless assssing results against the "top x" teams, as we shall not know which they are until the end of the season. One thing's for sure: The "top x" now will not be the "top x" in May!

 

[blade too long]

well you can only discuss results against the "current "top teams as they stand in the tab;e , waiting till May defeats the object of comparing results now , and its fairly clear cut that 90% of the top 8 are and will be the strongest sides in this division

 

[Pinchy]

well you can only discuss results against the "current "top teams as they stand in the tab;e , waiting till May defeats the object of comparing results now , and its fairly clear cut that 90% of the top 8 are and will be the strongest sides in this division

Well 90% of 8 is at least 7. I'll bet a £10 donation to the site that you can't now name 7 of the top 8 in the final table.

There is no purpose in comparing results based on current positions. There is no parity in terms of the fixtures played by any of the teams. Only the final table tells the story, and it does so conclusively. We'll be in the top two, though!

 

[blade too long]

the final table is that , final , but the table now is that of the current results, we tonked the current 3rd placed club which cant be denied either, but stevenage will finish in top 8, in my opinion
football is great as you can alter the argument as the season goes on, but at the time its relevant

 

[mattbianco1]

It's rather pointless assssing results against the "top x" teams, as we shall not know which they are until the end of the season. One thing's for sure: The "top x" now will not be the "top x" in May!

We'll just look at the results in May and marvel at how many points we've taken from the 23 teams below us

 

[Kenilworth]

It's the performance and the chances created in the last game that pleased me so much - just as the exact opposite had me so concerned beforehand. The tactics employed will obviously dictate the passage of play and if the players are fully committed as well, as they were against Stevenage on Saturday, then I shall have no complaints.
Where I do struggle is when we only create one or two chances on goal in a game and even those are blocked. We have the players to compete with any team in this division so it disappoints me when we don't. The only reasons don't are either the way we are set up or the attitude and commitment of those 11 on the field when the whistle goes.

BTW it would be a pretty pointless forum if we all waited for the final table to pass comment.

UTB

 

[Robbie]

Just a quick one, why do we anticipate to only get 2 ppg from the other particle of the table, when it is a bit higher than that?

After Saturday, would you consider the table to more or less accurate for your findings now?

 

[Kenilworth]

Just a quick one, why do we anticipate to only get 2 ppg from the other particle of the table, when it is a bit higher than that?
After Saturday, would you consider the table to more or less accurate for your findings now?

If the target was to get an average of 2 pts per game overall for automatic then, yes, we would have to get a higher return from those teams below us if we had less of a return from the teams we played that are in the top third. The point being that it illustrated the importance of getting more points from the top teams - which is the actual issue that prevented us going up automatically last season.

We didn't beat Stevenage in the league last year so I am very pleased that we put on such a performance and gained such a significant result the other afternoon. Previous results against teams in the top part of the table as it stands, Notts, Donny, Swindon, MKD were indicating a similar pattern to last season - that's all I was pointing out. No one can deny that it was the results against the others around us that cost us last season.

 

[Darren]

If the target was to get an average of 2 pts per game overall for automatic then, yes, we would have to get a higher return from those teams below us if we had less of a return from the teams we played that are in the top third. The point being that it illustrated the importance of getting more points from the top teams - which is the actual issue that prevented us going up automatically last season.

We didn't beat Stevenage in the league last year so I am very pleased that we put on such a performance and gained such a significant result the other afternoon. Previous results against teams in the top part of the table as it stands, Notts, Donny, Swindon, MKD were indicating a similar pattern to last season - that's all I was pointing out. No one can deny that it was the results against the others around us that cost us last season.

I can. If we had taken 8 points from the 12 on offer agsinst relegated Exeter and Wycombe, rather than 5 we actually got would have gone up.

 

[Pinchy]

It's the performance and the chances created in the last game that pleased me so much - just as the exact opposite had me so concerned beforehand. The tactics employed will obviously dictate the passage of play and if the players are fully committed as well, as they were against Stevenage on Saturday, then I shall have no complaints.
Where I do struggle is when we only create one or two chances on goal in a game and even those are blocked. We have the players to compete with any team in this division so it disappoints me when we don't. The only reasons don't are either the way we are set up or the attitude and commitment of those 11 on the field when the whistle goes.

BTW it would be a pretty pointless forum if we all waited for the final table to pass comment.

UTB

I agree. We should comment as much as we like! My point is that one cannot speak with certainty about the 'top teams' after less than half a season. And the more 'top teams' you include in your analysis, the less likely you will be correct.

I'm quite sure The Mighty Blades, Milton Keynes, Swindon Town, Notts County and Tranmere will be in the top eight (my prediction: in that order) but I wouldn't bet on the other three with any confidence at all!

 

[KenMcnaughtsNuts]

it doesnt really make any difference who you get points against does it? long as you get em. or am i missing something??

 

[Kenilworth]

it doesnt really make any difference who you get points against does it? long as you get em. or am i missing something??

Er, convert the home draw against the Pigs to a home win and see what difference it would have made.
Not really sure you thought that one through

 

[KenMcnaughtsNuts]

yeh but if we had won any of the games we lost, it would have made the same difference.

 

[Kenilworth]

I can. If we had taken 8 points from the 12 on offer agsinst relegated Exeter and Wycombe, rather than 5 we actually got would have gone up.

Darren - you are a master at arguing - there is little point in denying that as a fact. However, had we beaten the Pigs at home instead of drawing that match alone would have reversed the fortunes of the two teams in the final table. Of course we could have beaten Stevenage with that last BT chance and then beaten Exeter away and job done as well - but the results against the top teams are more crucial because when you gain points - they lose them, simple as.

 

[KenMcnaughtsNuts]

thing is you go out to get points. its ok saying we need more points against top teams, cos it stops them getting the points too...but how do you achieve that? all you can do is go out and try to win every game. and hope you get more points than everybody else gets.

 

[Kenilworth]

yeh but if we had won any of the games we lost, it would have made the same difference.

Not as much because the extra points we would have gained mean they would have lost ground on us. In a match directly against teams around you in the top you can have some control over what they do. If you are both playing separate teams then you have absolutely no influence on their result.

They finished 3 points ahead of us last term - had we conceded one fewer goal in that game we would have had 2 more points and they would have had one less - the 3 point swing - our GD was +41 and theirs +33 so we would have gone up on GD. A match we could have influenced given better concentration.

 

[blade too long]

No one can deny that it was the results against the others around us that cost us last season.

Well losing to Oldham after being 2 up then losing at Walsall in the space of 4 days must have given the oinkers a boost after theyd lost a couple, dont you think, neither were top 10

 

[dublin 10 blade]

I can. If we had taken 8 points from the 12 on offer agsinst relegated Exeter and Wycombe, rather than 5 we actually got would have gone up.

Also if Evans had'nt got banged up and that twat from bolton had scored against Stevenage we would have gone up.

 

[oldblade]

Well losing to Oldham after being 2 up then losing at Walsall in the space of 4 days must have given the oinkers a boost after theyd lost a couple, dont you think, neither were top 10

I have always thought that the home defeat to Oldham was far more detrimental to our season than the draw against Wednesday, mainly because of the point in the season at which it came, and the fact that the manner of it led to us losing at Walsall (because we had no defenders left to select from!).

Had we not pressed the self destruct button we would have had 3 more points (and thereby extended our lead over Wednesday as they only drew that day) and would probably have got at least one point from the Walsall game.

As it was, that defeat gave a huge boost to our rivals.