Need4speed
Member
- Joined
- May 11, 2014
- Messages
- 707
- Reaction score
- 1,366
So we have limped into this world cup break with injury and tired players who are therefore vulnerable to injury. We have played 21 Championship games since the 1st of August
This breaks down to 8 fixtures in August, only 2 in September (due to postponement for Queens death and the international break), 7 fixtures in October and then 4 fixtures in the two weeks in November.
Of course all other clubs that have had a similarly ludicrous schedule and you can argue that we have a better squad to cope with that. But we went into the season with injuries and the eight games in August certainly did not help.. We have had two games almost every week except September because of the international break. But most of our fit international call upon played in at least one.
The second half of the season looks completely different. There is the usual busy Christmas so we play on the 10th 19th 26th and 29th December and then on the 2nd January. But then because of the FA cup we don’t have a Championship game until 14th January. From then until the end of March there are only two mid week Championship games , one on the 15th February and one on the 15th March. There is a break from 18th March to 1st April. But there are then 7 games in April because of Easter and a mid week game on the 18th April. The last three fixtures are 22nd April, 29th April and 6th May - not too bad timings.
I think this gives us a lot better chance of keeping players fit and fresh, plus time to plan and prepare between games and therefore we should match or better the current average points per game which is 1.81.
With the better schedule you would expect that we could at least match the current points per game of 1.81. With 25 games remaining that would give us a further 45 points and take us to a total of 83. For example that would be 12 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses
That would easily get us in the playoff where the average over the last five years and average over the last ten years is 74 points ( the highest ever was 80 in 2016/17)
To get into the top two automatic promotion positions we would be unlucky to not go up with 90 points based on the last ten years. ( 93 points was required twice 16/17 and 13/14). To do this we would need 52 more points ie 2.1 points per game. Is this possible or likely. Well it is something like 15 wins 7 draws and losing only 3 games. My first reaction well there is not a chance of that. But given that we are currently second to get above us that would mean that Blackburn, Watford or Norwich would have to do better than that and all those below that on 31 points currently would have to do considerably better.
Conclusion - Despite all our injury problems we are in a great position to at least reach the playoffs and automatics are a possibility. Our current xGF and xGA would have us top at this stage. Our xGD is considerably better than all our competitors for promotion and playoff positions and therefore I think it will be Premier League football next season.
This breaks down to 8 fixtures in August, only 2 in September (due to postponement for Queens death and the international break), 7 fixtures in October and then 4 fixtures in the two weeks in November.
Of course all other clubs that have had a similarly ludicrous schedule and you can argue that we have a better squad to cope with that. But we went into the season with injuries and the eight games in August certainly did not help.. We have had two games almost every week except September because of the international break. But most of our fit international call upon played in at least one.
The second half of the season looks completely different. There is the usual busy Christmas so we play on the 10th 19th 26th and 29th December and then on the 2nd January. But then because of the FA cup we don’t have a Championship game until 14th January. From then until the end of March there are only two mid week Championship games , one on the 15th February and one on the 15th March. There is a break from 18th March to 1st April. But there are then 7 games in April because of Easter and a mid week game on the 18th April. The last three fixtures are 22nd April, 29th April and 6th May - not too bad timings.
I think this gives us a lot better chance of keeping players fit and fresh, plus time to plan and prepare between games and therefore we should match or better the current average points per game which is 1.81.
With the better schedule you would expect that we could at least match the current points per game of 1.81. With 25 games remaining that would give us a further 45 points and take us to a total of 83. For example that would be 12 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses
That would easily get us in the playoff where the average over the last five years and average over the last ten years is 74 points ( the highest ever was 80 in 2016/17)
To get into the top two automatic promotion positions we would be unlucky to not go up with 90 points based on the last ten years. ( 93 points was required twice 16/17 and 13/14). To do this we would need 52 more points ie 2.1 points per game. Is this possible or likely. Well it is something like 15 wins 7 draws and losing only 3 games. My first reaction well there is not a chance of that. But given that we are currently second to get above us that would mean that Blackburn, Watford or Norwich would have to do better than that and all those below that on 31 points currently would have to do considerably better.
Conclusion - Despite all our injury problems we are in a great position to at least reach the playoffs and automatics are a possibility. Our current xGF and xGA would have us top at this stage. Our xGD is considerably better than all our competitors for promotion and playoff positions and therefore I think it will be Premier League football next season.
