Some good points but I disagree on a few also. Firstly Stevens has spent more time injured than fit this season, or 50/50. He's 32 now and we've got two better LWB's in Lowe and RND. So I'd say he is as obvious to release as Sharp and Fleck, with Sharp though he may be retained as a coach/part time player role but of course that still takes a space of the 25 man squad.
I would say the players who may be only offered one year deals as back up players won't be good enough to be starters even in the Championship at the start of the season after the one coming (i.e 14 months from now) so it won't be a loss if they are then released next summer. I'm referring to the likes of Fleck, Norwood, Stevens. I'd expect Robinson and McBurnie to be given longer deals than a years extension.
In essence what I'm saying is that we know whether it's this summer or next that we need to add several players to this squad, but of course the Academy players may well fill several places such as Boyes and Arblaster. I would like to see a refreshing of this squad this summer and allow those out of contract to move on in most cases, but it seems Hecky want's to keep them all, or that is at lease what he said. I can only assume that is because he knows he has a limited budget and only wants to spend the budget we have on players to start rather than having to spend money on back up players but that's a risky game if we get injuries and have a midfield containing two of Norwood, Fleck or Osborn!
I'm coming around to why we are taking this approach.
I think part of it is due to the relatively clear succession planning there is in the squad and part that we value the spirit upon which the squad is built.
Let's assume we plan for getting relegated.
I don't suppose anyone is suggesting some of the young lads are ready for starting at the top level next season.
But can some be ready to challenge in the Championship the year after?
Looking at those deals you might extend:
Stevens -> Boyes.
If Boyes could get just the right loan, then it isn't unimaginable that he'd be an option in the squad for the 24/25 season. Keeping Stevens gives him another year to develop.
Fleck -> Arblaster
Perhaps not immediately like for like but he's seen as perhaps the most promising of young midfielders. He might be one we keep around the squad or he might be pushed to a League One loan but Fleck showed against City that he can be defensively sound and against Preston that he can still cover ground. Fleck's role would be mainly as sub and in cups. I could certainly see Arblaster and Doyle if we could get him, as a future midfield duo.
Sharp -> Osula
Similar to Boyes, a good loan should hopefully see him well placed to take over from Billy, whilst Billy can lead the team in the cups to rest the main starters to focus on the league and with 9 subs, you never know. His knowhow might be useful late on in games.
Norwood will get a 2 year extension I'd expect. Recency bias aside when Doyle took his spot, he played 86% of minutes and still made some teams of the year.
Who else is really up for debate?
Wes is the current first choice keeper; no reason to get rid of him, though the PL will be less forgiving for moments of casual play. If we go down he's still decent age for a keeper to go again.
Bash has a year left though he will be 35 when the season starts so could be his last year with us.
Robinson, like Wes has been a starter so his retention is another no brainer.
Coulibaly has only just got going and it is easy to forget he's not 23 until Christmas.
McBurnie has started to show better form this year to last and his extension will be triggered.
The likes of Jebbo and Osula if they are running out, likely they have extensions and new deals are obvious.
I suppose we don't publicly know about Osborn's accident but he's versatile and liked by Hecky so if fit, Hecky will keep him.
Just O'Connell, we probably expect something non-playing to emerge with him.
So, presumptuously and fancifully, I'd expect the 2024/25 squad to look a little like this:
G: Foderingham, Davies, Amissah
RWB: Baldock, Bogle
LWB: Lowe or 2023/24 signing, Boyes
RCB: 2023/24 signing, 2024/25 signing
CB: Egan
LCB: Norrington-Davies, Robinson,
CM: Doyle*, Arblaster, Norwood, Coulibaly, Osborn, 2024/25 McAtee type loan
CF: McBurnie, Jebbison, Osula, Brewster, Marsh, Sharp (6th choice player/coach)
That's still not a bad line up for 12 months time, fully expecting Ahmedhodžić, Berge and Ndiaye to move on and us to be more of a 3-4-1-2 to get 2 out and out strikers in there.
But who knows? Maybe we stay up!