points for the play offs

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Danny_Blade said:
Still can't see us even winning 4 of the 5 though.

As for League One that was a vastly different scenario wasn't it? We were completely dominating the league being head and shoulders above the rest, knew we were going up after 36 games played and probably even knew we'd likely be Champions as Bolton were nowhere near us!

As I say I think we have a great chance of getting into the top 6 but I'm just disputing that I can't see us winning either half or nearly half of the remaining 8 on current form, ditto for us to win 4 or 5 of our remaining home games because looking at our last 6 we're in indifferent form at the moment so we'd need to improve a fair bit in order to do that.
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You can’t see us winning half of our games left but, given our form since PH took over, by definition that would be unexpected. But remember, other clubs will also drop unexpected points.

It’s our to throw away now, in my opinion.
 

If we reach the play-offs I’d like to think we enter with the shackles off, given where we were just a few months back. Flip side of that is we go on a good run now and 2nd spot is in sight and we narrowly miss out and enter the play-offs slightly disheartened.
 
I’m going for 4 wins , 2 draws and 2 defeats in the run in , which should be enough and think the other 3 will be Forest , Udders and Luton .
 
LS26BLADE said:
Oh yes, its worked so well for us previously :)
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I will say this… if we don’t go up it will have a massive effect on us as a club.
And you know… this is a different team and a different time. To hell with what’s happened in the past.
But anyway… let’s cross those bridges when we come to them ⚔️
 
djbaldken said:
Which raises the following:
A) Is the current squad good enough to compete?
Answer: obviously not. (IMHO) With several aging members and some squad members not performing to past glories.
B) Will the Prince have the money to bring in the required quality required to survive?
Answer: It would appear not to be the case.
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A) That doesn't matter, the financial reward means it's worthwhile going up even if we come straight back down, this is a far better option than missing out and staying in the Championship with less parachute payments and having to move on the higher earners to survive.
B) See A
 
NuddysGloves said:
A) That doesn't matter, the financial reward means it's worthwhile going up even if we come straight back down, this is a far better option than missing out and staying in the Championship with less parachute payments and having to move on the higher earners to survive.
B) See A
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So you ll be happy to see the current squad getting totally arseholed every match in the prem? Even more so than Norwich have done this season!
I would nt.
 
djbaldken said:
Love all the speculation. Whatever the points needed I think we ll be there or there abouts. Knowing us we'll probably finish 7th on goal difference.
If/when we make the play offs there is the elephant in the room regarding our many attempts at being successful here. (sorry I ve been a Blade for far too long)

Then of course there is the prospect of getting to 'The Promised Lands'.

Which raises the following:
A) Is the current squad good enough to compete?
Answer: obviously not. (IMHO) With several aging members and some squad members not performing to past glories.
B) Will the Prince have the money to bring in the required quality required to survive?
Answer: It would appear not to be the case.

Still, its great to be a Blade. Whatever happens I want us to win and compete at the highest level.
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The answers to A and B are the same regardless of division. If we don't get promoted we face a large drop in revenue (5-15 million, I've seen various figures); the loss of the loan players and the prospect of offloading our best contracted players (and the out of contract players) to cover the short fall. Several ageing players will also be another year older next season. They'll be replaced with bargain basement players who'll fit the new wage structure and the dire need to reduce the cost base. I'd much rather take my chances with 100+ million. A year after we face offloading another heap of out of contract players that will have to go as the revenue will drop hugely in year three. Promotion is the antidote to a lot of this, although our prospects in the Prem wouldn't look good.

Conclusion: I'd rather be shit in the Prem than shit in the Championship.
 
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It's the away form that'll do for us, we've been crap away from BL..
 
blade too long said:
The official average is 74 for 6th spot
the most ever was 80 by Fulham. but they finished 5 points more than 7th so 76 would have sufficed

4 wins and a draw would get us to the average required 5 wins and a draw to 77 which would be about as certain as it gets
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Ohhh good. How would have Fulham's dropped points have impacted on the teams that finished 7th 8th and 9th oooooffff???
 
3rd place wins it the most often, the 2nd leg at home makes a difference. Should definitely be aiming for the top 4
 

Tezza1889 said:
It's the away form that'll do for us, we've been crap away from BL..
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Beat Fulham and played excellent away at Bournemouth, absolute joke we didn’t win that.

The Derby and Millwall have reasonable excuses imo, especially Derby where we basically needed another pre season.

90% of the Preston performance was excellent, Huddersfield was MGWs first start and out of position with yet another failed Mcsharpie experiment.

Granted, our two worst performances of the season were Coventry and Blackburn away, but get our main players fit and in the same side and we’ve no one to fear home or away.
 
ReeceofBDTBL said:
Beat Fulham and played excellent away at Bournemouth, absolute joke we didn’t win that.

The Derby and Millwall have reasonable excuses imo, especially Derby where we basically needed another pre season.

90% of the Preston performance was excellent, Huddersfield was MGWs first start and out of position with yet another failed Mcsharpie experiment.

Granted, our two worst performances of the season were Coventry and Blackburn away, but get our main players fit and in the same side and we’ve no one to fear home or away.
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Trying not to be negative, thankfully most are home games. 4 wins and a few teams taking points off each other should do...

We're not consistent enough to get to the final, the away leg will do for us..
 
blade too long said:
as the above tables finish in 2019 here is the seasons since which alter none of the figures
1Leeds United (C, P)4628997735+4293Promotion to the Premier League
2West Bromwich Albion (P)46221777745+3283
3Brentford46249138038+4281Qualification for Championship play-offs[a]
4Fulham (O, P)462312116448+1681
5Cardiff City461916116858+1073
6Swansea City461816126253+970
7Nottingham Forest461816125850+870

you have to feel for forest missing out by 1 goal but only 70 points
and last season

PosTeam
PldWDLGFGAGDPtsPromotion, qualification or relegation
1Norwich City (C, P)46291077536+3997Promotion to the Premier League
2Watford (P)46271096330+3391
3Brentford (O, P)46241577942+3787Qualification for Championship play-offs
4Swansea City462311125639+1780
5Barnsley46239145850+878
6Bournemouth462211137346+2777
7Reading461913146254+870

6th got 77 points but 7th only got 70 so 71 would have sufficed
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If reading had done the double over Bournemouth then would reading have had 73 points and Bournemouth 74? If the team which finished 8th or 9th had done the double over Reading and Bournemouth how many points would have secured 6th. Crock of shit reasoning that this or that would have been enough. The enough is the amount the 6th placed team finished on, as the distribution of those unnecessary points would probably mean 7th would finish with more than said points...... Oooooffff
 
Not_a_Cheat said:
If reading had done the double over Bournemouth then would reading have had 73 points and Bournemouth 74? If the team which finished 8th or 9th had done the double over Reading and Bournemouth how many points would have secured 6th. Crock of shit reasoning that this or that would have been enough. The enough is the amount the 6th placed team finished on, as the distribution of those unnecessary points would probably mean 7th would finish with more than said points...... Oooooffff
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Well Fulham could have drawn 2 more dropping 4 and spread those 2 single points points to 2 clubs .....simples
point spreads mean exactly that

The more drawn games the less points are shared out as 1 disappears
 
The points of the sixth placed team is irrelevant to qualifying for the play offs. What matters is being better than the team finishing 7th.

Good job someone's already done the heavy lifting for you.

Balham Blade said:
I looked at the points required for the playoffs and promotion back in 2018. Updating those figures shows that we will need somewhere between 70 and 76 points to reach the playoffs. Bear in mind that this disregards goal difference: it's about the number of points which would have been required to finish either 2nd or 6th so one more than the team finishing 3rd/7th. It's also worth noting that no side finishing 6th has won the playoffs since Blackpool in 2010.

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We have 26 points from 20 games so need somewhere between 44 and 50 points from the remaining 26 games - a rate of between 1.7 and 1.9 points per game. Put bluntly, we need to win half our remaining games.
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We're averaging 2 points per game under Hecky, if we get bodies back for the last month of the season, can't see why that should change. I'll stick my neck out, 77 points
 
djbaldken said:
For 'now and again' read, 'every time'.
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again thats the past,,,,,not now
blackburns lost in a play off to swindon
forest have lost in a play off to us and yeovil
huddersfield have lost in a play off
boro lost in a play off to norwich
so are they all expecting to lose
 

blade too long said:
again thats the past,,,,,not now
blackburns lost in a play off to swindon
forest have lost in a play off huddersfield have lost in a play off
boro lost in a play off to norwich
so are they all expecting to lose
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Very true, it is the past.
But to predict the future, study the past!

BTL I would love us to win the play offs. But like you Ive been a blade for a long long time and can guess the outcome.
I d love to be proved wrong and for once see it happen in my life time.
 
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