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ucandomagic

ucandomagic

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It has been a while since we sadly lost Grafikhaus, and I always enjoyed his graphs. Having been greatly encouraged by the way that we played yesterday I started to wonder what the real possibility is for us to get to the playoffs this year from where we find ourselves today. We currently have 26 points from 20 games. The minimum to have a chance of the playoffs is about 71 points, and 78 points should certainly get us in. So I have looked at our schedule, and the possible way that we might get to these totals. The red line is where we are. Below the blue line and we have almost no chance of the playoffs and above the black line we would almost certainly get in. It's a tough road, but not impossible.


Playoff Graph.jpg
 

ucandomagic said:
It has been a while since we sadly lost Grafikhaus, and I always enjoyed his graphs. Having been greatly encouraged by the way that we played yesterday I started to wonder what the real possibility is for us to get to the playoffs this year from where we find ourselves today. We currently have 26 points from 20 games. The minimum to have a chance of the playoffs is about 71 points, and 78 points should certainly get us in. So I have looked at our schedule, and the possible way that we might get to these totals. The red line is where we are. Below the blue line and we have almost no chance of the playoffs and above the black line we would almost certainly get in. It's a tough road, but not impossible.


View attachment 125609
Click to expand...
Grafik light.😉 but more understandable.
 
Needs more lines, can you add in lines for our progress over 46 games the last few times we made it to, or narrowly missed out on the playoffs? :)

Could do 2008/09, 2007/08, 2004/05, 2003/04, 2002/03?
 
As ever pessimistic Blades. Show the graph that guarantees (almost) certain promotion as champions
 
H,mmm didn't integrate the differential.....
9.5 out of 10 though ...
 
ucandomagic said:
It has been a while since we sadly lost Grafikhaus, and I always enjoyed his graphs. Having been greatly encouraged by the way that we played yesterday I started to wonder what the real possibility is for us to get to the playoffs this year from where we find ourselves today. We currently have 26 points from 20 games. The minimum to have a chance of the playoffs is about 71 points, and 78 points should certainly get us in. So I have looked at our schedule, and the possible way that we might get to these totals. The red line is where we are. Below the blue line and we have almost no chance of the playoffs and above the black line we would almost certainly get in. It's a tough road, but not impossible.


View attachment 125609
Click to expand...
Looks like the one I have been keeping, but which includes the previous two seasons in the Championship as well as one for 50 points to avoid relegation !!
 
It would be interesting to track our form this season to 2018/19. We were 7th before we played Derby on Boxing Day but then I think we only lost 2 further games away to Swansea and home to Bristol City for the rest of the season.
 
ucandomagic said:
It has been a while since we sadly lost Grafikhaus, and I always enjoyed his graphs. Having been greatly encouraged by the way that we played yesterday I started to wonder what the real possibility is for us to get to the playoffs this year from where we find ourselves today. We currently have 26 points from 20 games. The minimum to have a chance of the playoffs is about 71 points, and 78 points should certainly get us in. So I have looked at our schedule, and the possible way that we might get to these totals. The red line is where we are. Below the blue line and we have almost no chance of the playoffs and above the black line we would almost certainly get in. It's a tough road, but not impossible.


View attachment 125609
Click to expand...
1638213515327.jpeg
 

ucandomagic said:
It has been a while since we sadly lost Grafikhaus, and I always enjoyed his graphs. Having been greatly encouraged by the way that we played yesterday I started to wonder what the real possibility is for us to get to the playoffs this year from where we find ourselves today. We currently have 26 points from 20 games. The minimum to have a chance of the playoffs is about 71 points, and 78 points should certainly get us in. So I have looked at our schedule, and the possible way that we might get to these totals. The red line is where we are. Below the blue line and we have almost no chance of the playoffs and above the black line we would almost certainly get in. It's a tough road, but not impossible.


View attachment 125609
Click to expand...
As I always said to Grafikhaus dyslexia apart I love a good giraffe.

1C3FCF93-D019-412A-8B19-9CFD5C5ED194.jpeg​
 
By popular demand (Tickhill Blade) I have added a couple of our recent years with a similar challenge - the 2 Blackwell years, 08/09 when we finished 3rd with 80 points, and 09/10 when we finished 8th with 65 points. I don't want to put any more lines on, or we won't be able to see the wood for the trees,

As I said above, the red line is our actual results this year and the blue and black dashed lines are the realistic boundaries to achieve 6th place - ie below the blue dashed line and we won't make the playoffs and above the black dashed line we should be comfortably in. Between the 2 of these lines and it could go either way. Our earlier experience fits in well with this as 08/09 (3rd), the brown line, is well above the black dashed line and lilac 09/10 (8th) is well below the blue dashed line,

Playoff Graph 2.jpg
 
coaxingstar71 said:
It would be interesting to track our form this season to 2018/19. We were 7th before we played Derby on Boxing Day but then I think we only lost 2 further games away to Swansea and home to Bristol City for the rest of the season.
Click to expand...
Just for coaxingstar71 I have also plotted the graphs against our 2 Wilder Championship years 2017/18 (10th with 69 points) and 2018/19 (2nd with 89 points).

Remember that the blue and black dashed lines are lower and upper limits for 6th place, so to be safely playoff-bound we need to be above the black dashed line.

Wilder Comparison.jpg
 
ucandomagic said:
Just for coaxingstar71 I have also plotted the graphs against our 2 Wilder Championship years 2017/18 (10th with 69 points) and 2018/19 (2nd with 89 points).

Remember that the blue and black dashed lines are lower and upper limits for 6th place, so to be safely playoff-bound we need to be above the black dashed line.

View attachment 125634
Click to expand...
So in summary we have less points than even the two seasons where we finished 10th..

And obviously below the Blackwell playoff season and the Wilder promotion season.

People thinking after one game we are back to being strong playoffs candidates are counting their chickens way too early and forgetting how hard it is to keep a sustained run going in this league (ask WBA lol)
 
jono_t2000 said:
So in summary we have less points than even the two seasons where we finished 10th..

And obviously below the Blackwell playoff season and the Wilder promotion season.

People thinking after one game we are back to being strong playoffs candidates are counting their chickens way too early and forgetting how hard it is to keep a sustained run going in this league (ask WBA lol)
Click to expand...
But perhaps the top 6 were stronger in all those years? Given how tight the league is, getting into the play offs may require one of the lowest points totals required, this season, should it continue to be two good teams only.
 
jono_t2000 said:
So in summary we have less points than even the two seasons where we finished 10th..

And obviously below the Blackwell playoff season and the Wilder promotion season.

People thinking after one game we are back to being strong playoffs candidates are counting their chickens way too early and forgetting how hard it is to keep a sustained run going in this league (ask WBA lol)
Click to expand...
But perhaps the top 6 was stronger in all those years? Given how tight the league is, getting into the play offs may require one of the lowest points totals required, this season, should it continue to be two good teams only.
 
That's good work ucandomagic !

It looks as if we're about 6 points off where we were in the promotion season which isn't that much. I know it's stating the bleeding obvious but if we were to win say our next 4 games, and then have a decent level of consistency, we'd be right in there. I don't think it's unrealistic to at least get in the play-off places (we won't win them of course), however it does look like Fulham and Bournemouth are pulling away from the rest so unless one of them hits a poor run of form, I think it would be a stretch to get in the top two.
 
coaxingstar71 said:
That's good work ucandomagic !

It looks as if we're about 6 points off where we were in the promotion season which isn't that much. I know it's stating the bleeding obvious but if we were to win say our next 4 games, and then have a decent level of consistency, we'd be right in there. I don't think it's unrealistic to at least get in the play-off places (we won't win them of course), however it does look like Fulham and Bournemouth are pulling away from the rest so unless one of them hits a poor run of form, I think it would be a stretch to get in the top two.
Click to expand...
Makes sense as we are currently 7 points off the play offs
 
coaxingstar71 said:
That's good work ucandomagic !

It looks as if we're about 6 points off where we were in the promotion season which isn't that much. I know it's stating the bleeding obvious but if we were to win say our next 4 games, and then have a decent level of consistency, we'd be right in there. I don't think it's unrealistic to at least get in the play-off places (we won't win them of course), however it does look like Fulham and Bournemouth are pulling away from the rest so unless one of them hits a poor run of form, I think it would be a stretch to get in the top two.
Click to expand...
coaxingstar71 - In Wilder's promotion year 2018/19 we had 34 points from 20 games and were lying 6th in the table, so we were 8 points ahead of where we are this year.

We then got 16 points from the next 7 games, and were second on 50 points after 27 games, so we'd have to have a brilliant run this year just to keep that 8 point gap!

Generally for automatics you need about 90 points - and 64 points from our 26 games remaining is equivalent to about a 113 point season, and I don't think we're at that level!

We already need a top 2 level performance, about 2 points a game, for the rest of the season to be certain to make the playoffs. We need about 1.75 points per game from here on in just to have any chance of getting in the playoffs.

Magic is Possible but Miracles are Less Likely!
 
I looked at the points required for the playoffs and promotion back in 2018. Updating those figures shows that we will need somewhere between 70 and 76 points to reach the playoffs. Bear in mind that this disregards goal difference: it's about the number of points which would have been required to finish either 2nd or 6th so one more than the team finishing 3rd/7th. It's also worth noting that no side finishing 6th has won the playoffs since Blackpool in 2010.

1638279843842.png
We have 26 points from 20 games so need somewhere between 44 and 50 points from the remaining 26 games - a rate of between 1.7 and 1.9 points per game. Put bluntly, we need to win half our remaining games.
 
Balham Blade said:
I looked at the points required for the playoffs and promotion back in 2018. Updating those figures shows that we will need somewhere between 70 and 76 points to reach the playoffs. Bear in mind that this disregards goal difference: it's about the number of points which would have been required to finish either 2nd or 6th so one more than the team finishing 3rd/7th. It's also worth noting that no side finishing 6th has won the playoffs since Blackpool in 2010.

View attachment 125650
We have 26 points from 20 games so need somewhere between 44 and 50 points from the remaining 26 games - a rate of between 1.7 and 1.9 points per game. Put bluntly, we need to win half our remaining games.
Click to expand...

So we need to finish 5th (around 76 pts) and win promotion via the play offs (based on assumptions of play off winner column and continuation of pattern) 😉

Therefore 50 more pts required over 26 games @ 1.9 pts per game!
 

Balham Blade said:
I looked at the points required for the playoffs and promotion back in 2018. Updating those figures shows that we will need somewhere between 70 and 76 points to reach the playoffs. Bear in mind that this disregards goal difference: it's about the number of points which would have been required to finish either 2nd or 6th so one more than the team finishing 3rd/7th. It's also worth noting that no side finishing 6th has won the playoffs since Blackpool in 2010.

View attachment 125650
We have 26 points from 20 games so need somewhere between 44 and 50 points from the remaining 26 games - a rate of between 1.7 and 1.9 points per game. Put bluntly, we need to win half our remaining games.
Click to expand...
The rate is really win all home games and draw away games so from every four matches need 8 points - doable!
 
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