Pathway to the Playoffs

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Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (-1.1pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday (W), WBA (D), Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-5.8pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry (L), Wrexham
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-2.0pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich (L), Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (+2.4pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth (W), QPR (W), Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)
Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2pt/game - 4W2L) - On Track

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

OK - lets put this to bed. Short of 8 wins from 9, this is effectively done. I give us a 3% chance of getting to 74pts now.



 
SUFCScorecard said:
Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (-1.1pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday (W), WBA (D), Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-5.8pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry (L), Wrexham
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-2.0pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich (L), Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (+2.4pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth (W), QPR (W), Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)
Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2pt/game - 4W2L) - On Track

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

OK - lets put this to bed. Short of 8 wins from 9, this is effectively done. I give us a 3% chance of getting to 74pts now.



Click to expand...
Great. So there IS a chance. Xx
 
We are totally tucked now and should be discussing how we can clear out and rebuild from the roots of our academy. No more parachute, so hopefully no more old journeymen. Get rid, maybe even bring Hecky back? he built the kids. Get real, team has to be built on a shoestring. COH don't seem flush, fingers burnt.
Sad times tbh. Thanks to Wilder for saving us, we were in real shit, but a new philosophy needed to rebuild on a budget. Players with heart and skill. Bindon, Seriki, Peck, Mcallum, hopefully a fit blaster, brooksey, a fit Coops, possibly O'Hare, possibly an inform Burrows. Sprinkled with some experience Tanganga? Mee? Banham? for a season only. Bring back One please. Get rid of the rest, not worth the shirt.
 
SUFCScorecard said:
Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (-1.1pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday (W), WBA (D), Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-5.8pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry (L), Wrexham
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-2.0pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich (L), Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (+2.4pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth (W), QPR (W), Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)
Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2pt/game - 4W2L) - On Track

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

OK - lets put this to bed. Short of 8 wins from 9, this is effectively done. I give us a 3% chance of getting to 74pts now.



Click to expand...
Please save your time!
 
With 27 points to play for we are currently 11 away from the relegation zone, not to put a dampener on things but we have to have one eye looking over the shoulder and get the final points we need. Oxford have hit a bit of form, although Leicester are down there, they can be good enough to stay up, last season Luton were relegated on 49 points which is what we are on now, the 23/24 season Birmingham were relegated on 50. We just need to concentrate a bit as we have 2 tough fixtures coming up and we don't want to end on a freefall where we are counting on beating Blackburn/Preston which will be the 4th and 5th game of April. There are no gimmes in this league, we have to play every team from 5th (Hull) down to 12th (Bristol) apart from Southampton. Along with Preston (on the same points) and Blackburn (relegation scrap)
 
PeterNdlovu081 said:
We could still go down until it's mathematically impossible.

Are you worried about that?

If not then what's the point in clutching at straws that we might still go up?
Click to expand...
True - but considering since Wilder came back our trajectory has steadily trended upwards - it would take cataclysmic events for us to suddenly drop into the relegation zone
 
LBA_Blade said:
With 27 points to play for we are currently 11 away from the relegation zone, not to put a dampener on things but we have to have one eye looking over the shoulder and get the final points we need. Oxford have hit a bit of form, although Leicester are down there, they can be good enough to stay up, last season Luton were relegated on 49 points which is what we are on now, the 23/24 season Birmingham were relegated on 50. We just need to concentrate a bit as we have 2 tough fixtures coming up and we don't want to end on a freefall where we are counting on beating Blackburn/Preston which will be the 4th and 5th game of April. There are no gimmes in this league, we have to play every team from 5th (Hull) down to 12th (Bristol) apart from Southampton. Along with Preston (on the same points) and Blackburn (relegation scrap)
Click to expand...

This. Some hard games and team looks knackered. Its very possible were still on 49 come the international break. Brum away is hard and Hollywood filth will be fighting for promotion.
2 wins and a draw to be totally safe lets get at least 1 before the break and the anxious sorts like me can stop flapping for a bit
 
If we beat Birmingham today and then Wrexham I might look at the table again.
 
Not looking easy now, but still a glimmer of hope. First of all we need Watford to pull of an unlikely home win against Wrexham in midweek, and hope that Southampton don't beat Norwich also midweek.

If that happens we go into the home game with Wrexham knowing that a win will put us 7 points off 6th with seven games to go and 21 points still to play for.

74 points is the maximum we can achieve now so we can probably only afford to lose one more game.
 



Dkc said:
Not looking easy now, but still a glimmer of hope. First of all we need Watford to pull of an unlikely home win against Wrexham in midweek, and hope that Southampton don't beat Norwich also midweek.

If that happens we go into the home game with Wrexham knowing that a win will put us 7 points off 6th with seven games to go and 21 points still to play for.

74 points is the maximum we can achieve now so we can probably only afford to lose one more game.
Click to expand...
What’s the next step we move to AFTER praying?
 
Dkc said:
Not looking easy now, but still a glimmer of hope. First of all we need Watford to pull of an unlikely home win against Wrexham in midweek, and hope that Southampton don't beat Norwich also midweek.

If that happens we go into the home game with Wrexham knowing that a win will put us 7 points off 6th with seven games to go and 21 points still to play for.

74 points is the maximum we can achieve now so we can probably only afford to lose one more game.
Click to expand...
Much too big an ask. If we try to grind out wins we will fail. This isn’t a team that can consistently do that, far too brittle. We could take the shackles off and really go at teams which would give us the slimmest of chances, but we know that won’t happen.
 
It would great if we can go on a good run and win the next 8 that would certainly put us in the playoffs, but looking at it is definitely a mammoth task to do now, United won’t give up until it is mathematically possible but we definitely should have one eye on next weeks home game to Wrexham, knowing if we win that we could be just be 7 points off, one game at a time keep the faith blades⚔️
 
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A seven point deficit can easily become a four point deficit. But not only do we need to go on a near-perfect run, we need other teams as well as Wrexham to drop points.

Wrexham as we know have Coventry and Boro to play at the end of the season (both could be promoted by then) - and also play Southampton.
 
To be honest after the start of the season, I am happy to call our season a day at the start of May. Hopefully between now and the end of the season we can rotate a little bit that we can, I would 100% like to see Faxon play a couple of games. I know Davies might be playing for contract purposes but we don’t really know if Faxon has stepped up or is capable of doing so.
 
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As much as I'd be delighted to be proved wrong, we're not making the playoffs.

If we do, for the playoffs I will happily come onto the pitch at half time and let somebody spray deep heat on my ballbag!
 
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LBA_Blade said:
To be honest after the start of the season, I am happy to call our season a day at the start of May. Hopefully between now and the end of the season we can rotate a little bit that we can, I would 100% like to see Faxon play a couple of games. I know Davies might be playing for contract purposes but we don’t really know if Faxon has stepped up or is capable of doing so.
Click to expand...
At the start of the season we were bottom of the league with zero points and below the pigs. We'd all have taken a mid table finish - with the bonus of doing the double over them and relegating them at the Lane.

Now some are unhappy that we're not storming the play-offs too.
 
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