ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Saved this until after today’s games, and Leeds’ latest reverse. We Are ToTL!!
In the last 5 games, since Leeds beat us, we have picked up 13 points, Burnley have picked up 13 points and Leeds have picked up 6!
Can It really happen to them again?!
So, first of all, a great Friday night at a loud and proud BDTBL. Hamza, Sydie and Gus were quite incredible. Gus’s brilliant replay of Reece James’ goal against Latvia set the scene, then Femi’s cross to clinical Dr Ty and Brew Dog ‘s 2 in 2 and that was that. Conceding one late on was a bit disappointing – and if Wilder had just listened to me and brought big Kieff on instead of “Teacher’s Pet” he might have stopped their goal (only kidding – maybe!)
Meslier’s latest comedy show at Elland Road this afternoon put the icing on the weekend cake! A shame Bristol City couldn’t get something out of Burnley - but I have to say that Burnley looked very good - apart from their finishing. Their goal from Flemming was a free kick as good as Gus’s – but apart from that they only had 2 shots on target from 13 attempts but, as usual, restricted Bristol City to 1 on target from 4 attempts.
So now the graphs and charts that show factually where we are at present.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 83 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now a huge 8 points ahead of my Autos Promotion (92-point) schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. I actually think now that we will probably need 95 for second place this year, but that's OK as my forecast for us is now 98-100 points and second place - maybe only just behind Leeds on Goal Difference.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 83 points after 39 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 9 points ahead of the 74 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, now 7 points ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 8 points ahead of Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 2:
So we are 9 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with the 2-point deduction.
I won’t put the extra graph on this week, but we are also now 4 equivalent points ahead of what I regard as our best ever Level 2 season, under Reg Freeman in 1952/53. Legends beckon!
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights our strengths & weaknesses relative to different levels of opponent, but most of all celebrates our glorious current position at the summit of our Everest.
League Table:
My current Matchday 46 forecasts are Leeds 100, Blades 100, Burnley 94, but you can fill in the gaps in Chart 1 for yourself to see what you think.
Chart 1:
Let’s hope that we can power through the next 4 games before that Turf Moor showdown on April 21st – a nice gap of 4 points or more would be very welcome!
I’ll take a look at the XG stuff when it comes out on Tuesday, to see what it suggests for the Oxford game.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
In the last 5 games, since Leeds beat us, we have picked up 13 points, Burnley have picked up 13 points and Leeds have picked up 6!
Can It really happen to them again?!
So, first of all, a great Friday night at a loud and proud BDTBL. Hamza, Sydie and Gus were quite incredible. Gus’s brilliant replay of Reece James’ goal against Latvia set the scene, then Femi’s cross to clinical Dr Ty and Brew Dog ‘s 2 in 2 and that was that. Conceding one late on was a bit disappointing – and if Wilder had just listened to me and brought big Kieff on instead of “Teacher’s Pet” he might have stopped their goal (only kidding – maybe!)
Meslier’s latest comedy show at Elland Road this afternoon put the icing on the weekend cake! A shame Bristol City couldn’t get something out of Burnley - but I have to say that Burnley looked very good - apart from their finishing. Their goal from Flemming was a free kick as good as Gus’s – but apart from that they only had 2 shots on target from 13 attempts but, as usual, restricted Bristol City to 1 on target from 4 attempts.
So now the graphs and charts that show factually where we are at present.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 83 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now a huge 8 points ahead of my Autos Promotion (92-point) schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. I actually think now that we will probably need 95 for second place this year, but that's OK as my forecast for us is now 98-100 points and second place - maybe only just behind Leeds on Goal Difference.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 83 points after 39 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 9 points ahead of the 74 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, now 7 points ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 8 points ahead of Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 2:
So we are 9 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with the 2-point deduction.
I won’t put the extra graph on this week, but we are also now 4 equivalent points ahead of what I regard as our best ever Level 2 season, under Reg Freeman in 1952/53. Legends beckon!
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights our strengths & weaknesses relative to different levels of opponent, but most of all celebrates our glorious current position at the summit of our Everest.
League Table:
My current Matchday 46 forecasts are Leeds 100, Blades 100, Burnley 94, but you can fill in the gaps in Chart 1 for yourself to see what you think.
Chart 1:
Let’s hope that we can power through the next 4 games before that Turf Moor showdown on April 21st – a nice gap of 4 points or more would be very welcome!
I’ll take a look at the XG stuff when it comes out on Tuesday, to see what it suggests for the Oxford game.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
