ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Waited for today’s results to post this. Not the most inspiring performance yesterday at the Liberty Stadium – or whatever.com it’s called these days – but, as they say, good teams find a way to win and bad teams find a way to lose. First half was poor – conceding a goal to a badly defended free kick. We certainly need another centre back. The second half was very different – Femi Seriki, not for the first time, just like in the Sunderland game in November when he came on, transformed the whole feel and momentum of the game. Every time he has the ball he drives forward and just makes the whole game feel positive. Round the back, crossed for Brew-Dog’s well-taken goal, and there should have been a repeat from his cross to Salmon McCallum, if Sam had used his right foot rather than desperately using his trusty left.
I felt that Darling’s red card was a bit harsh, but overall we deserved the win. Tyrese showed some great touches when he came on and Big Ben was really positive and almost “Struck One”! Great ball from Gus to Tyrese to draw the penalty, which Harrison “Joe Cool” calmly dispatched. With Campbell, Cannon, BBD and Brew-Dog we now have an amazing choice for Wilder up top.
So, moving on to the graphs, which show the great position that we are in.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 58 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are 4 points ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. My Autos benchmark was for 90 points – which has a 96% probability of being Top 2 this century. However, there has been some debate on this topic on the forum this week, and I have moved the target to 92 points. That is because the increasing dominance of parachute payment clubs may well be making historical data less valid – but the detail of that needs its own thread. For now – analysing the remaining fixtures, we are nicely on target for 96 points, including allowing for the deduction, which is more than enough to get us Top 2. (Good to see the incontinent urine trickle dribbling away from Playoffs Possible!)
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 58 points after 28 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 8 points ahead of the 50 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 1 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and still only 4 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So, amazingly, we are 8 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with a 2-point deduction.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. The colours emphasise the point that I was making above, that the top 5 or 6 teams are almost in a different league from the majority. Once again, we were top for a day, then Weeds even beat their 2 minute opening goal against Wendy with a 33 second goal against the Canaries! We play 3 days before them next weekend – so if we get a Dull victory we can guarantee a longer spell at the summit!
League Table:
Anyway, exciting times with the newcomers and returning wounded, not to mention the arrival of Joe Russo. I understand that somebody told him that our Academy was producing superheroes!!
I’m staying at the Hunters Bar Airbnb Buddhist retreat again on Friday night, so I’ll be in the right place to meditate on the result.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
I felt that Darling’s red card was a bit harsh, but overall we deserved the win. Tyrese showed some great touches when he came on and Big Ben was really positive and almost “Struck One”! Great ball from Gus to Tyrese to draw the penalty, which Harrison “Joe Cool” calmly dispatched. With Campbell, Cannon, BBD and Brew-Dog we now have an amazing choice for Wilder up top.
So, moving on to the graphs, which show the great position that we are in.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 58 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are 4 points ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. My Autos benchmark was for 90 points – which has a 96% probability of being Top 2 this century. However, there has been some debate on this topic on the forum this week, and I have moved the target to 92 points. That is because the increasing dominance of parachute payment clubs may well be making historical data less valid – but the detail of that needs its own thread. For now – analysing the remaining fixtures, we are nicely on target for 96 points, including allowing for the deduction, which is more than enough to get us Top 2. (Good to see the incontinent urine trickle dribbling away from Playoffs Possible!)
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 58 points after 28 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 8 points ahead of the 50 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 1 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and still only 4 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So, amazingly, we are 8 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with a 2-point deduction.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. The colours emphasise the point that I was making above, that the top 5 or 6 teams are almost in a different league from the majority. Once again, we were top for a day, then Weeds even beat their 2 minute opening goal against Wendy with a 33 second goal against the Canaries! We play 3 days before them next weekend – so if we get a Dull victory we can guarantee a longer spell at the summit!
League Table:
Anyway, exciting times with the newcomers and returning wounded, not to mention the arrival of Joe Russo. I understand that somebody told him that our Academy was producing superheroes!!
I’m staying at the Hunters Bar Airbnb Buddhist retreat again on Friday night, so I’ll be in the right place to meditate on the result.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
