Matchday 26 - Some Graphs to Cheer Us Up a Bit More

[ucandomagic]

I don’t feel like commenting on the game – other than to say that as the last line of defence, one mistake a game by the middle centre back is probably too many – two schoolboy errors in 30 seconds suggests a certain lack of concentration ------ and then he goes and does that with the last kick of the match! The deflection may have been fortunate, but he kept it professionally hard and low and on target, as opposed to our usual blast over the top, and got his reward. Apart from that, we mostly just huffed and puffed all over the pitch!

Anyway, the graphs should cheer us up even more!

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 26 games, on 51 points we are still only 5 points behind Warnock’s 05/06 season – which had a remarkable 56 points after 26 games. We are, however, still 4 points ahead of Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this is still our best Championship season for a long time.

Graph 1:




Graph 2 is the usual graph, comparing where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. – You can see from Graph 2 that we are now a point above my Autos Certain line and 11 points ahead of my Playoff Certain results. I’d certainly have settled for that.

Graph 2:




Finally, the League Table, and still a comfortable 9 point gap to third place. That last minute goal avoided an ugly red band right across by QPR, who would have become this season’s "Fucking Walsall" (to quote Wilder). Walsall finished 14th, and were the only team to do the double over us in 16/17. We ended up on 100 points!!

League Table:


UTB & Slava Ukraini

 

[RammyBlade]

Thanks mate -thats kept me positive as reading some of the posts here you would think we are getting relegated !

 

[brownblade]

I think you're being slightly harsh on a generally dependable Egan. Also thought we were good for about 35 minutes (first 10 + last 25ish) of the 95, which isn't ideal, but did lead to a respectable away point.

Anyway, always love your charts, thanks sir!

 

[TCsLoveChild]

Top man, good work. Also perhaps worth mentioning that out of the 26 games played so far only 12 have been at home. UTB

 

[Westran]

In our next 3 games we've got teams who have already beaten us this season twice, I'm half expecting us to lose a bit of momentum in the next month, but we are due a bad patch and hopefully we've given ourselves enough of a cushion to keep position whilst we get back to winning ways.

That being said, if we can get Lowe and McBurnie back in the side I reckon we'll push on, Millwall potentially a good game to get some minutes in them if fit ready for Stoke

 

[billyblademan]

In our next 3 games we've got teams who have already beaten us this season twice, I'm half expecting us to lose a bit of momentum in the next month, but we are due a bad patch and hopefully we've given ourselves enough of a cushion to keep position whilst we get back to winning ways.

That being said, if we can get Lowe and McBurnie back in the side I reckon we'll push on, Millwall potentially a good game to get some minutes in them if fit ready for Stoke

Much as Millwall is a game we want no injuries, we should absolutely be using it as a fitness exercise, where required. It's not as if it's going to be an intense game anyway in front of a half full stadium in a match neither team will care too much about. Whilst I would advocate resting Egan, Norwood etc. I saw some saying we shouldn't even be playing McB/Bogle to build up their fitness, and I think that's a bit far.

 

[Westran]

Current form tables for the last 8 games has us finishing on 98 points, with Middlesborough and West Brom finishing on 87 and 91 points respectively.

That means that our margin for error is only 7 points if current form is maintained by those 2 teams. We need to maintain 2.03 points per game for the rest of the season, our current form is 2.38. West Broms form is 2.63 ppg and Middlesbrough's is also 2.38 ppg

 

[Tony Currie]

Current form tables for the last 8 games has us finishing on 98 points, with Middlesborough and West Brom finishing on 87 and 91 points respectively.

That means that our margin for error is only 7 points if current form is maintained by those 2 teams. We need to maintain 2.03 points per game for the rest of the season, our current form is 2.38. West Broms form is 2.63 ppg and Middlesbrough's is also 2.38 ppg

Correction 1.8 would see us get promoted on 92 points.

Average points for Second place are 87.

Highest ever needed for second place 93.

United are on Target.