ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
A game of chess that we lost. Like the Cardiff game, neither side created any great chances and I’m sure that both teams will have an XG less than 1 … and yet we won 2-0 in Cardiff and we lost 2-0 to Burnley . What I will say is that when Burnley got the first goal, which was vital, they controlled the game extremely well. Then, in such a tight game the second goal killed it. The ref was pretty crap all day and seemed to miss a foul on Cal before they broke and got a free kick followed by a flukey deflection – just like the West Brom equaliser earlier this month. The biggest downside today, though, was certainly Big Harry limping off and Vini not coming out for the second half.
So, moving on to the graphs, just to emphasise that one bad day at the office doesn’t bring the sky down. Our fantastic start means that we are still in a great position.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 48 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are still 3 ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with a 2 point deduction. My Autos schedule only had this game as a draw, and only had 6 points from this and the next 3.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 48 points after 23 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 10 points ahead of the 38 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 4 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and only 4 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So we are still an amazing 10 points ahead of that great 18/19 season with a 2-point deduction. Our world is still a beautiful place!
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. The top 4 still have a healthy gap to Blackburn in 5th – and the table also emphasises that we’re only losing to those teams that we might expect that to be a possibility.
League Table:
So, let’s look at it positively, our new Yankee Doodles came to the game and saw for themselves, just at the right time, that we need to strengthen. If we’d won 5-0 today, Wilder might have had a tougher time opening up the wallet very far!
Fingers crossed for the injuries.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
So, moving on to the graphs, just to emphasise that one bad day at the office doesn’t bring the sky down. Our fantastic start means that we are still in a great position.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 48 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are still 3 ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with a 2 point deduction. My Autos schedule only had this game as a draw, and only had 6 points from this and the next 3.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 48 points after 23 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 10 points ahead of the 38 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 4 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and only 4 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So we are still an amazing 10 points ahead of that great 18/19 season with a 2-point deduction. Our world is still a beautiful place!
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. The top 4 still have a healthy gap to Blackburn in 5th – and the table also emphasises that we’re only losing to those teams that we might expect that to be a possibility.
League Table:
So, let’s look at it positively, our new Yankee Doodles came to the game and saw for themselves, just at the right time, that we need to strengthen. If we’d won 5-0 today, Wilder might have had a tougher time opening up the wallet very far!
Fingers crossed for the injuries.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
