ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Usual Graphs and Tables for Matchday 2. I waited to post this until Wendy had completed the weekend (and improved our mood)!
So, where to start with our game? We looked like a team going straight back to the Prem for the first half hour or so, fast moving, quick passing, high pressing. Slowly though, our aggressive game died and we slowed. At half time everybody near me agreed that Wilder needed to change things - particularly Brooks and probably O’Hare. However, no changes until the 77th minute, and the rest is history.
This was probably the strongest bench I have ever seen, and Wilder needed to use it. In his post-game presser he blamed the players for not sticking to the plan! What he should have said, as I posted in the match thread, was “That result was on me. When the game went dead I should have changed things. I had a fantastic bench and I didn’t use it”. He needs to learn from his mistakes, but even if he didn’t believe it, a quality manager would have said that to take the public pressure away from the players. If he wanted to throw stuff around and blame the players then the dressing room is where that should stay instead of trying to make excuses for himself.
As usual though, I'm posting some graphs and tables each week following our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. All 3 of my benchmarks had us on 4 points after 2 games, so we are 2 points behind all of those lines (although we would be right on top of them without the deduction).
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. We lost our first 2 games in 2018/19 under Wilder, so we are 2 points ahead of that. We are 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 4 points behind Warnock’s flying start in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, I'm posting the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Without the deduction, we would now be 5th, just below Blackburn on goals scored.
League Table:
Finally, for a bit of fun, you may remember that I posted a couple of weeks ago my predicted league positions at the end of the season. So I will post a review of my predictions each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast – so this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster! Without the deduction we would be on -2.
Over/Under Performance Table
Anyway, with a bench as strong as yesterday I’m sure that all bodes well for this season.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
So, where to start with our game? We looked like a team going straight back to the Prem for the first half hour or so, fast moving, quick passing, high pressing. Slowly though, our aggressive game died and we slowed. At half time everybody near me agreed that Wilder needed to change things - particularly Brooks and probably O’Hare. However, no changes until the 77th minute, and the rest is history.
This was probably the strongest bench I have ever seen, and Wilder needed to use it. In his post-game presser he blamed the players for not sticking to the plan! What he should have said, as I posted in the match thread, was “That result was on me. When the game went dead I should have changed things. I had a fantastic bench and I didn’t use it”. He needs to learn from his mistakes, but even if he didn’t believe it, a quality manager would have said that to take the public pressure away from the players. If he wanted to throw stuff around and blame the players then the dressing room is where that should stay instead of trying to make excuses for himself.
As usual though, I'm posting some graphs and tables each week following our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. All 3 of my benchmarks had us on 4 points after 2 games, so we are 2 points behind all of those lines (although we would be right on top of them without the deduction).
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. We lost our first 2 games in 2018/19 under Wilder, so we are 2 points ahead of that. We are 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 4 points behind Warnock’s flying start in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, I'm posting the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Without the deduction, we would now be 5th, just below Blackburn on goals scored.
League Table:
Finally, for a bit of fun, you may remember that I posted a couple of weeks ago my predicted league positions at the end of the season. So I will post a review of my predictions each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast – so this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster! Without the deduction we would be on -2.
Over/Under Performance Table
Anyway, with a bench as strong as yesterday I’m sure that all bodes well for this season.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
