Matchday 17 Graphs, Charts and Chat – Oxford Bagged and Black Friday Black Cats Forecast

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ucandomagic

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Oxford was basically a professional day at the office. Looking back over the last 7 years, Wilder’s teams have always been flat track bullies – we take the points from the teams that we are better than. If you’re a good team and come to Bramall Lane and press us high all over the pitch you can beat us. If you’re a poor team who set up with a low block and hope for a break – you might beat us. If you’re a poor team who don’t press hard and who still try to play football you don’t know what you’re doing – and that was Oxford. We won 3-0, it could easily have been 6. A good day for O’Hare and McCallum – the guy who outjumps people 6 inches taller than him! Tyrese is gaining in confidence and is the clinical guy we need. Callum had his best game, and his little touches to Gus and Tyrese are starting to count. Vini can be the next legend. Femi is either our next money-spinner or a Blades star for the next 10 years.

So, on to the graphs (I’m still not over that Bassette twat from Coventry!)

Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 35 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are still bang on my Autos Promotion schedule – and without the deduction we would be 2 points ahead – this schedule has a win against Sunlan though!

Graph 1
:
24-25 Paths To The Prem Matchday 17.webp


Graph 2
compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 35 points after 17 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 5 ahead of the 30 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 6 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 6 points behind Warnock’s in 05/06.

So this is still our best Championship start since 2005, and is better than our last 2 promotion seasons – and that includes that deduction!

Graph 2:
24-25 Compared to Earlier Seasons Matchday 17.webp


Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 2nd place, only behind Leeds on goal difference and 2 points ahead of Burnley and Sunlan. Without the 2-point deduction we would be 2 clear of even Weeds!

League Table:
24-25 League Table Matchday 17.webp



Before the start of the season, I posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season and Chart 1 reviews each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position.

Chart 1:
Over - Under Matchday 17.webp



The big overperformers compared to my forecast are Blackburn and the biggest underperformers compared to my forecast are Coventry. My previous posts have had Sunlan as overperformers but, as predicted, they are now slipping back towards the norm. Let’s hope we push them further back in that direction!

So what about Sunlan? They were hugely outperforming expectations early in the season, but have been slipping back over the last 3 games. Late goals cost them 4 points against Coventry and Millwall, and they changed and shut up shop to get a 0-0 point at the Baggies. I think theSunlan from the Baggies is the Sunlan that we will see. Although the season stats suggest 1-1 or 2-1 either way, I think 0-0 or 1-0 either way will decide this game. However, if we get an early goal anything can happen with the potential that Sunlan have.

So, an early end to our weekend, and hopefully 1-0 and another green block in that home column will take us above the White Weeds!

UTB & Slava Ukraini!
 

Oxford was basically a professional day at the office. Looking back over the last 7 years, Wilder’s teams have always been flat track bullies – we take the points from the teams that we are better than. If you’re a good team and come to Bramall Lane and press us high all over the pitch you can beat us. If you’re a poor team who set up with a low block and hope for a break – you might beat us. If you’re a poor team who don’t press hard and who still try to play football you don’t know what you’re doing – and that was Oxford. We won 3-0, it could easily have been 6. A good day for O’Hare and McCallum – the guy who outjumps people 6 inches taller than him! Tyrese is gaining in confidence and is the clinical guy we need. Callum had his best game, and his little touches to Gus and Tyrese are starting to count. Vini can be the next legend. Femi is either our next money-spinner or a Blades star for the next 10 years.

So, on to the graphs (I’m still not over that Bassette twat from Coventry!)

Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 35 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are still bang on my Autos Promotion schedule – and without the deduction we would be 2 points ahead – this schedule has a win against Sunlan though!

Graph 1
:
View attachment 198168


Graph 2
compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 35 points after 17 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 5 ahead of the 30 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 6 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 6 points behind Warnock’s in 05/06.

So this is still our best Championship start since 2005, and is better than our last 2 promotion seasons – and that includes that deduction!

Graph 2:
View attachment 198169


Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 2nd place, only behind Leeds on goal difference and 2 points ahead of Burnley and Sunlan. Without the 2-point deduction we would be 2 clear of even Weeds!

League Table:
View attachment 198170



Before the start of the season, I posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season and Chart 1 reviews each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position.

Chart 1:
View attachment 198171



The big overperformers compared to my forecast are Blackburn and the biggest underperformers compared to my forecast are Coventry. My previous posts have had Sunlan as overperformers but, as predicted, they are now slipping back towards the norm. Let’s hope we push them further back in that direction!

So what about Sunlan? They were hugely outperforming expectations early in the season, but have been slipping back over the last 3 games. Late goals cost them 4 points against Coventry and Millwall, and they changed and shut up shop to get a 0-0 point at the Baggies. I think theSunlan from the Baggies is the Sunlan that we will see. Although the season stats suggest 1-1 or 2-1 either way, I think 0-0 or 1-0 either way will decide this game. However, if we get an early goal anything can happen with the potential that Sunlan have.

So, an early end to our weekend, and hopefully 1-0 and another green block in that home column will take us above the White Weeds!

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

That 2-2 draw with QPR sticks out like a saw thumb more and more.

How we contrived to go from 2-0 up to 2-2 is one of the greatest mysteries in life.

Really should be 8 wins from 8 at home and still yet to concede!
 
Good stuff UCDM.
COYRAWW.
Disappointing to see the pigs so ahead of your pre season prediction but they do seem able to collect points when I don't expect them to.
Hoping they too will regress to the norm.
 
Does anybody seriously want promotion?
If we hadn’t got promoted with Hecky and suffered last season we wouldn’t have half the team that we do now.

As long as you go up and use it to build the best possible Champ team, rather than blowing the cash to try to stay up, it can be part of a fun long term journey forwards.

UTB & FTP xxx
 
Forgot in my last reply to say better than ever content Graphman.

I love the little score prediction segments that you’re sneaking in now.

Also, I’m hopefully looking forward to another XG-based review post, as we haven’t had one for a while. Obviously difficult with games coming on odd days - like Friday!

UTB & FTP!
 
Oxford was basically a professional day at the office. Looking back over the last 7 years, Wilder’s teams have always been flat track bullies – we take the points from the teams that we are better than. If you’re a good team and come to Bramall Lane and press us high all over the pitch you can beat us. If you’re a poor team who set up with a low block and hope for a break – you might beat us. If you’re a poor team who don’t press hard and who still try to play football you don’t know what you’re doing – and that was Oxford. We won 3-0, it could easily have been 6. A good day for O’Hare and McCallum – the guy who outjumps people 6 inches taller than him! Tyrese is gaining in confidence and is the clinical guy we need. Callum had his best game, and his little touches to Gus and Tyrese are starting to count. Vini can be the next legend. Femi is either our next money-spinner or a Blades star for the next 10 years.

So, on to the graphs (I’m still not over that Bassette twat from Coventry!)

Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 35 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are still bang on my Autos Promotion schedule – and without the deduction we would be 2 points ahead – this schedule has a win against Sunlan though!

Graph 1
:
View attachment 198168


Graph 2
compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 35 points after 17 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 5 ahead of the 30 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 6 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 6 points behind Warnock’s in 05/06.

So this is still our best Championship start since 2005, and is better than our last 2 promotion seasons – and that includes that deduction!

Graph 2:
View attachment 198169


Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 2nd place, only behind Leeds on goal difference and 2 points ahead of Burnley and Sunlan. Without the 2-point deduction we would be 2 clear of even Weeds!

League Table:
View attachment 198170



Before the start of the season, I posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season and Chart 1 reviews each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position.

Chart 1:
View attachment 198171



The big overperformers compared to my forecast are Blackburn and the biggest underperformers compared to my forecast are Coventry. My previous posts have had Sunlan as overperformers but, as predicted, they are now slipping back towards the norm. Let’s hope we push them further back in that direction!

So what about Sunlan? They were hugely outperforming expectations early in the season, but have been slipping back over the last 3 games. Late goals cost them 4 points against Coventry and Millwall, and they changed and shut up shop to get a 0-0 point at the Baggies. I think theSunlan from the Baggies is the Sunlan that we will see. Although the season stats suggest 1-1 or 2-1 either way, I think 0-0 or 1-0 either way will decide this game. However, if we get an early goal anything can happen with the potential that Sunlan have.

So, an early end to our weekend, and hopefully 1-0 and another green block in that home column will take us above the White Weeds!

UTB & Slava Ukraini!
You say we are flat-track bullies but the two draws against bottom-feeders Pompey & QPR were extremely disappointing.
QPR , it was like CW fell asleep and didn't see them progressively coming back into the game , even with 10men.
I recall screaming my head off on the kop "wake up Blades , wake up Wilder" but they just couldn't hear me.
2 points I hope we don't regret later
 
That 2-2 draw with QPR sticks out like a saw thumb more and more.

How we contrived to go from 2-0 up to 2-2 is one of the greatest mysteries in life.

Really should be 8 wins from 8 at home and still yet to concede!
Two reasons
Jack Robinson and Adam Davies
 

Yes. Otherwise we might be struggling to keep our heads above water financially.
Are Ipswich fans not enjoying it ?
I think if we just have one Prem season where we’re at least competitive and not rolling over every week, even if we come down, I think we’d still enjoy the journey and then go again at the champ.

Those last two years were so horrible that I think we’ve all (including me) got premier league PTSD.
 
Goes to show how good the Warnock season was until it tailed off probably because we were promoted by then and stepped off the gas, as for good teams pressing us hard well that’s what good teams do on the reverse of that a better team knows how to deal with. The stats don’t lie, fantastic number gathering again
 
Goes to show how good the Warnock season was until it tailed off probably because we were promoted by then and stepped off the gas, as for good teams pressing us hard well that’s what good teams do on the reverse of that a better team knows how to deal with. The stats don’t lie, fantastic number gathering again
We lost 8 games that season. 4 of them came in February and March

1732871051860.webp
 

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